Every measurement must include an estimate of uncertainty. Such a number is not a guess. It is a calculation.
But we never see estimates of uncertainty when it comes to Climate Change. Could it be that the estimates of uncertainty are so large that they make the reported values worthless?
As an example, suppose I report a temperature increase of 1.5 degrees Celsius. And my calculated estimate of uncertainty is +/- 1.7 degrees Celsius. Then it’s possible that the temperature even dropped!
So I’ll just report the 1.5 degrees, and make the Climate Change alarmists happy.
Also, since it’s an average of 15 locations, one or two locations with averages well above their record averages could bring the collective average up a degree or two even though the other 13 or 14 locations experienced below average temps.
An average temperature for Japan, which has elevations from sea level to 12,388 ft., is meaningless in relation to the whole of Japan much less the whole globe.
Every measurement must include an estimate of uncertainty....
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You are absolutely correct and I make that point often when dealing with ‘the sky is falling crowd’.
On another point, the article says that “Japan recorded its highest average temperature this summer in 125 years...” Correct me if I’m wrong but summer isn’t over yet, is it? Or are seasons somehow different in Japan?
I remember earlier this summer, it was incredibly dry and I had a family member decrying how hard this was on her trees etc. I told her to just wait a bit, it all averages out. In fact, we’ve had an incredible amount of rain since then... I’m going to be very interested in seeing what the total precipitation will be when the summer is over.