The Quinniapac poll yesterday showed a substantial national Biden lead.
I went through the methodology and there is nothing horribly wrong with it. In fact, it follows the generalized gold standard.
There is one item of significance. They weight results according to Census data for Region, gender, age, et al. The Census itself was badly corrupted by the Administration to preserve seats and dollars for particular areas.
I do not think all polls do that.
Biden had 7 million more votes in 2020. Net 5M in Calif, 2M in NY and 1M in Illinois. In no state did Trump net over 1M votes.
This is extremely narrow concentration for Biden. Swing state victories are much more probable as a result of this, but the Qpac poll showed about 6% Biden lead. Surprising, and not consistent with others — BUT, without changing their methodology, that compared to Biden/Trump tie a few months ago.
I questioned the earlier polls showing Trump winning big. My concern was that the media was cooking them to make it look like Trump was a shoo-in with the intent of getting him nominated. And as soon as he was pretty much guaranteed to be the GOP nominee the true polls would be released showing Biden with a substantial lead in the battleground states. Seems like my suspicions may have been true.