Posted on 02/20/2024 9:03:19 AM PST by Eccl 10:2
I just stepped out of tqqq TENSION...55.641
better than a bass boat...
No guts, no glory.
Just kidding. We’ll see.
I would have bought SOXX or SMH, but the NVDA call tomorrow made that too risky for my taste.
sqqq at 12.014
Lets see if everybody is getting back in the pool or running for the showers ...
I would hate to have to hold this over night ...
but it’s hard to guess what the swimmers will do....
that 17500 has been a player today ... who could have guessed ?
Keep your eye on TLT (iShares LT Treasury Bond ETF). That’s an indicator for me.
If that goes up, that generally means the Fed is adding liquidity, IMHO, esp when bonds and equities are going up together.
And when the Fed adds liquidity, equities usually rise.
a lot of swirl there .... WAMs on tap I suppose
“No guts, no glory”
and no fun..... if it ain't fun ..... find something else
lots better that a bass boat. I just love the adrenaline ... I think I'm actually hooked on it....those green candles have me rocking back in my boots .... but I haven’t heard any fat ladies yet.
I make it a rule to never look at the coulda..shoulda..woulda (CSW)
.... I guess unless it's ... I am glad I got out before...
I like to remember those ones 8-)
Is QT still occurring? The bond market seems to implicate it is. If so, considering current economic activity (unexpectedly) the equities may be ahead of themselves a bit. So I’ve gone to cash hopefully, to sidestep the unpleasantries.
I still have some at 142 in one account and some in another acct at 394. Only a few shares though. Not a big time player. lol
Some AMD at 79.
“Is QT still occurring?”
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
In the short run, perhaps. But I just can’t see TPTB allowing equities to tank prior to the November elections. That, of course, does not preclude a ST downturn in the interim.
“I just can’t see TPTB allowing equities to tank prior to the November elections.”
So Markets vs. the banks then.
Who will prevail?
I think the 2020 election gave us a glimpse of how elections will serve monied interests from now on.
Wealth is too important to leave it in the hands of the little people.
“Wealth is too important to leave it in the hands of the little people.”
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Sadly, so are elections.
“I just went long. Fingers crossed.
SPY@496.18 for my taxable account. QQQ@425.57 for my IRA.”
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Modest gains on both at the close.
We’ll see what tomorrow brings.
Happy trading all!
Personally, I think that technical analysis is more of a gauge of investor psychology than anything else. My problem last year was that I didn't trust the government to either:
I think #2 is borne out by the rise in government jobs over private sector jobs.
I've been more of a leading indicator trend analyzer. I don't want to buy the dips of whipsaws, I want to find the deep recession and then get in at the bottom and get out at the top. I fully expected the bear-market recession to hit last year, so I was out of the equity market and into money markets for the whole of 2023.
I gave up the exuberant gains of 2023 for the security of MM returns (plus bond ETFs), expecting a market crash as inflation peaked, banks began to fail, and people couldn't afford new homes. As a recent retiree, my focus was on capital preservation going into the Biden administration.
In August of 2023, my leading indicator model was approaching bear-market recession triggers, but then retreated. It is now turning back towards the trigger level.
Now we are entering 2024 and the heart of the election cycle when the current administration will do everything it can to either prop up the markets even more or poison pill the economy for Donald Trump. I still don't want to re-enter the equity market at this time, as I believe the bear-market crash is finally looming. The next few months of leading indicators will show me more.
-PJ
It got too volatile for me and I didn’t have the cajones to hold 😁
No truer words ever spoken.
If you leave some of the houses money on the table, pat your self on the back ...
I've seen most folks, me included ... sometime wait too long to pull the trigger, looking for that “one more tick”...
that is shooting for “bulls eyes” a hard temptation to resist.
“$150 and sold at $400”
somebody do the math on that.... looks shinny green to me
So mr/ms ? Skywise ... what other kind of ideas are zipping around in that brilliant mind of yours ?
What sort of things do you look at when pondering a move?
Are you buy and hold? swing , options ...
charts, fundamentals, momentum ....?
Inquiring minds want to know...
Did you see that bottom call Eccl 10 made on the Q this am... BAD @$$ ... (I should probably tip him)
It surprised me how long they held that $ down after the 10y
jumped.... actually held it till after market. I'm going to have to ponder that a bit... my first impression is NDX opens lower in the am ... under 17500
as the $ gets pulled up by the yield ... but if the yield comes to meet the $ ... that would change.
not financial advise for entertainment only
I know it entertains me ... better than a bass boat
I follow trends and strong foundations. I’m a software engineer by trade so I know the current trends in computer tech so I know when certain things in the tech industry are “good” and when they’re not - so I’m great at getting in… not so great at getting out!
I thought NVDA was too “memed” at 450 and when it dropped at 400 I thought its bubble had burst and was going to drop more. (Cue sad trombone). Tomorrow’s earnings call for NVDA is the trigger for hyperspace or a pull back and that will affect all the tech stocks riding in the AI bubble.
Been wanting to jump on the SMCI hype train too but thought its bubble has burst too - but darn if it didn’t meet heavy resistance to selling today and rebounded.
Buy the hype sell the facts I s’pose…
But this is how the Obama bizarro economy works. When Trump was in office the market made sense…
ya ... we are a long way from there now ... in my opinion.
” current trends in computer tech “
ooo that's a sweet spot ... feel free to share any thoughts you may have on the space ...
Have you got any “gut” feeling about the WAMs(wild @$$ move) we may see tomorrow ?
I ride the Q train ... swapping back and forth ... in/out of sqqq and tqqq 3x etfs of the NDX .... SUPER AGGRESIVE ...very adrenaline based, I hedge sometimes with options if it's too hairy..... not for the faint of heart but better than a bass boat.
And by the way ... plenty of traders would loved to say they
had tuned that trade... I know I would be proud .
But now .... what's next ? ... throw us a bone here,
don't be shy .... it's just for entertainment
+1
The only possible solution to massive fiscal budget deficits imo is hyperinflation. SA countries and others have been doing it for years. Coin debasement was its predecessor.
The issue is where to invest in that environment. As I figure the functioning parts of the economy will still need resources to function. They will have purchasing power as they are essential. So what products and materials do they need to purchase to function? IMO food and energy top the list. So it’s commodities. I prefer oil. It has a strong moat.
I think you have a very good point...
We have seen asset inflation because of the revaluing of the fiat currency.
And commodities sort of mess up their game.
I have come to believe we are seeing a world wide revaluing ..
What if all the fiat currency could tack a 0 on the end without hyper-inflation.
It would really knock a dent in the debts..
I don't know if they can keep a handle on it ... but I think that's what they would like.
I am moving into mines ... copper, silver, gold ...
even though they are rate sensitive they tend to inflate with other assets. And they have historically had that hedge feeling if things start running amuck.
Some pay pretty good dividends too.
With NVDA earnings coming .... hmmm ..some head scratching and deep breaths .. but I hold with my calls from the other threads.
As for oil ... I'm surprised they have held it down this long .. but ..supply is up, demand is down .. they want to try to hurt the Russians.. so... a lot of variables to ponder.
Food is an asset ...and it is inflating .. best play may be out in the back yard. I am planing on a big garden this year.
That may sound like an odd investment ... but I try to go where the clues lead me.
o ... and that whole “decouple “ from the $ thing ...
where is that going?
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