Breaking Down the 2002 NFL Season

New York Jets. The Jets reap the benefits of an easy schedule again this year. Games at Jacksonville, Detroit, San Diego and at home against Minnesota give them the wins necessary to take their division.

New England Patriots. The Pats ride the high of last years Superbowl win, but it’s only enough to sneak in as a wildcard.

Miami Dolphins. The Fins are riding high on the acquisition of Ricky Williams. So are other team’s defenses. Expect to see a lot of defenses put 8 men in the box and the season will ride on the shoulders or maybe this case the hip of Jay Fiedler. Also expect the Miami defense to have to spend too much time on the field to secure wins in close games.

Buffalo Bills. This team is on the rise. But don’t expect them to reap benefits this year. The Bills will beat themselves up on tough divisional games and then have to try and put up a showing against Chicago and at Denver and Green Bay.

1. Pittsburgh Steelers
2. Cleveland Browns
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers love realignment. No more will they have to play two games a year against Tennessee and Jacksonville who both played them tough. Expect the Steelers to have the division locked up by week 13.

Cleveland Browns. The Browns should finish strong this year by winning their last five games in a row. The 10-6 record it will produce will just miss the wildcard spot on tiebreakers. The Browns are a solid #2 receiver away from being able to go deep in the playoffs.

Cincinnati Bengals. It’s too bad the Bengals don’t play Denver this year. A Spikes-Sharpe smack off would be the most entertaining part of a Bengal Fan’s season. They will be improved but they are still a long way off from being a playoff contender.

Baltimore Ravens. Billick knew this day was coming. The day when the Ravens would have to take the cap hit and purge the high dollar players. Don’t expect anything from the Ravens this year, but also don’t expect them to stay in the cellar for many years as long a Billick is at the helm.

1. Indianapolis Colts
2. Tennessee Titans
3. Houston Texans
4. Jacksonville Jaguars

Indianapolis Colts. Just the presence of Tony Dungy brings the Colts Defense into the top 15 in the league. The offense will still be prolific even if Dominic Rhodes is in there instead of Edgrinn James. With the improvement in defense the Colts will be able to hold off the Titans for the division crown.

Tennessee Titans. The Titans have the misfortune of some tough games outside of their division. Games against Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and at Oakland will be just enough for them to miss the playoffs.

Houston Texans. How bout dem Texans. This expansion team will play….well like an expansion team. But with the personnel they have, they may be able to pull off 4 wins, which will be enough to keep them out of the cellar.

Jacksonville Jaguars. This could very well be Tom Coughlin’s last year at the reins of the Jags. With the drop off in the key skill positions (Brunell’s getting older, McCardell is gone, Taylor cant stay healthy) and Jimmy Smith still mired in a holdout, expect the Jaguars to compete for “Worst Team in the League”.

1. Oakland Raiders
2. Denver Broncos
3. Kansas City Chiefs
4. San Diego Chargers

Oakland Raiders. This is their last chance and they know it. Rice, Gannon, and Brown are all aware that they are in the twilight of their respective careers and will be pushing everyone on the team to make one last hard run to the Superbowl. They might just make it, but by the time they get there they could very likely be out of gas.

Denver Broncos. The Broncos are a good team that seems to always get the bad breaks (ala Ed McCaffery). The Broncos will keep it together enough this year to secure the other wildcard spot in the AFC. But can this team ride the shoulders of Brien Greise? The jury is still out on that. The only thing Bronco fans should wish for is that Terrell Davis retires and move to New York so Brien can’t fall down in his driveway.

Kansas City Chiefs. Two things will become evident in Kansas City this year. First, Trent Green really is a good quarterback when he has receivers to throw to. And second, Dick Vermeil is not the reason the Rams won the Superbowl two and a half years ago. Gonzalez is at odds over playing basketball too, players are slapping teammates with their helmets on the practice field and Vermeil does not have the ability to correct the infighting even if he cries.

San Diego Chargers. Be sure to watch the first three Charger games this year if you are a Doug Flutie Fan. These games will be his last. Schottenheimer will put Drew Brees in this year. This team has some talent, but it still needs to gel before they will be able to win the close games.

1. Philadelphia Eagles
2. New York Giants
3. Washington Redskins
4. Dallas Cowboys

Philadelphia Eagles. This entire division has the disadvantage of having to play NFC West teams this year. The Eagles are the only team in this division that stands a reasonable chance of pulling off an upset against the Rams or 49ers. That coupled with games against Houston, Arizona, and at Jacksonville, they should be able to easily win this division.

New York Giants. In all honesty, a person can take the remaining teams in this division and put them in a hat to pull out the order of how they finish. I put the Giants on top of this list because of the Fassel factor. I’m hoping to hear another “Guarantee” this year. The guarantee wont be enough to get them into the playoffs though.

Washington Redskins. As a prognosticator I will make a detailed prediction for this team this year. The Redskins will blow out Arizona in its opener. Then they will lose a squeaker at home against the Eagles. Then they will go to Candlestick. The 49ers will be beating them badly. Spurrier will pull whatever quarterback is starting that day and Spurrier will learn two things. First, quarterback-by-committee does not work in the NFL. And second, don’t purposely blow out your opponents in pre-season unless you are not going to see them again during the regular season. (Especially if you have to play them in their crib.)

Dallas Cowboys. Cowboy fans need to unite and send letters to Jerry Jones saying “I know we are not getting 10 wins again this year, but please don’t pull the plug on Carter”. Quincy needs one more year of hard knocks and I think we will see the maturity level of a top ten quarterback by the end of the year. Cowboy fans should spend this year focusing on Emmit Smith breaking Walter Payton rushing record, bask in it, and don’t worry about the standings.

Chicago Bears. When looking at the Bears this year think of the Baltimore Ravens two seasons ago. Don’t look at Jim Miller to win games for the Bears, but look for him to not lose them either (ala Trent Dilfer). This Defense is good enough to limit opponents and the Offensive line is probably the best in the league for the A-Train to run behind. This will be enough to eek out the division title over Green Bay.

Green Bay Packers. Will Terry Glenn stay out of trouble? Who cares? Favre can do more with substandard receivers than a lot of quarterbacks could do with Terrell Owens and Marvin Harrison. It will be a neck and neck fight for the division title, but the Pack are guaranteed at least the wildcard spot.

Detroit Lions. Anything would be better than last year for Detroit Fans. This year they will get their wish. The Lions wont be the 2nd worst team in the NFL. They will be the 5th worst.

Minnesota Vikings. Mike Tice says they will be throwing to Randy Moss a lot more this year. Expect to see a lot of safeties baiting Daunte Culpepper into interceptions. The best the Viking Fans can hope for is that Tice is just saying this to trick Moss into finishing plays.

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2. New Orleans Saints
3. Atlanta Falcons
4. Carolina Panthers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The arrival of Gruden should help an offense that has not cracked the top 20 in the league over the last five seasons. This could mean a good year for Keyshawn Johnson. It also helps that no one else in the division has the talent to compete with the Bucs for the division title.

New Orleans Saints. The Saints will find out what effect Ricky Williams had on the defenses they played against. Teams will keep their faster players in on running downs because they know Duece McCallister is not going to bull rush anyone. An additional disadvantage the Saints have is they have been designing their defense to play against teams like the Rams and 49ers. This wont help their cause in a division that will be doing a lot of rushing.

Atlanta Falcons. Warrick Dunn is a good addition to this team, but Michael Vick is not ready to carry this offense. There should be a lot of mistakes seen this year on the Falcons squad. Make a mental note not to watch the games the Falcons team plays against the Panthers this year. It will be reminiscent of the Dallas-Washington Monday Night Game last season.

Carolina Panthers. Bringing in Fox was a good idea on Carolina’s part. They need to become a defensive powerhouse to be competitive in this division. They just don’t have all the pieces in place to get out of the cellar this year. However, with a home opener against Baltimore, Panther fans don’t have to worry about breaking Tampa Bay’s all time losing streak record.

1. St. Louis Rams
2. San Francisco 49ers
3. Arizona Cardinals
4. Seattle Seahawks

St. Louis Rams. This is still the team to beat in the NFL. And on top of that this team is hungry to erase the embarrassment of their Superbowl loss to the Patriots. Jamie Duncan replacing London Fletcher is actually an upgrade at Linebacker on passing downs and Terrence Wilkins replacing Az-Hakim will actually give the Rams surer hands at that position. The only thing that will keep the Rams from locking up their division early this year will be the 49ers breathing down their neck. (Note: The 49er-Ram Monday Night season finally may be the game of the season.)

San Francisco 49ers. If it weren’t for the Rams last year the 49ers would most likely had made it to the Championship Game. But being a wildcard and having to play in Green Bay was their undoing. The same thing can happen again this year. A playoff spot is pretty much a given, but as a wildcard team they wont get a home game due to realignment.

Arizona Cardinals. The Cards and the Hawks will compete for last place in the West. The saving grace for Arizona is that the NFC West is playing the NFC East this year, which has more beatable teams than the AFC West that they will play and the Seahawks are familiar with.

Seattle Seahawks. Welcome to the NFC. And just to make sure we break you in right we will put you in a division with the two best offenses in the league. Mike Holmgren is going to find out just how talented his defensive backs are. Look on the bright side. At least they didn’t put the Hawks in the Black and Blue Division.

Denver at Pittsburgh. The Broncos are improving, but the Steelers give Greise his first serious lesson on taking a team to the next level.

New England at Indianapolis. Tuck rule withstanding, the Patriots cant keep up with the Colts in the RCA Dome.

Green Bay at Philadelphia. The Eagles think this is their year after the close loss last year in the Championship Game. But Brett Favre avenges his 6-interception performance in his last playoff game to pull off the victory.

San Francisco at Tampa Bay. Darn those Rams. No game at home equals another early exit from the playoff for the 49ers.

Indianapolis at Oakland. The Colts are good, but the Raiders are making their last run at a Superbowl for a while and Raider Fan becomes just too intimidating.

Pittsburgh at New York. The Steelers should be able to win anywhere they go. But not this year. Kordell Stewart still comes up short in the big game when the defense keys on stopping Bettis.

Green Bay at St. Louis. No, we wont see Favre throw 6 picks in St. Louis again, but it will become an offensive shoot out with the Rams winning with the “Greatest Show on Turf”.

Tampa Bay at Chicago. Guess what? It’s windy in Champlain. It’s snowing. It’s below 40 degrees. See ya Bucs.

New York Jets at Oakland Raiders. This game looks nothing like the one last year. The Raiders attack on a nice dry field and 60 degree weather.

Chicago at St. Louis. Defense wins games. But the Rams have defense and offense. Final score: Rams win 10-3.

Oakland vs. St. Louis. As I’ve said, the Raiders are on a mission. It’s their last chance to get a ring with this group. But the Rams are on a mission too. They are determined not to be embarrassed in a Superbowl again. The Raiders just don’t have the energy left to finish the trick.

Very nice, you need to get on a sports desk somewhere, this is better written than 90% of the season previews I've read. I have one addenda prediction:
If the rest of the NFL get's a brain in their head this will be a terrible year for the Rams. That's a big if. Historically there are two things you know about a West Coast Offense. #1 - In order to defeat them you have to throw off their timing, it's all about bump coverage and blitzing the quarterback. #2 - At any given time there are only 2 or 3 coaches with the stones to call aggressive defenses against the WCO, which is why teams like the Rams always seem invincible.

Since the Pats showed the way in the Super Bowl there really is no excuse... but there hasn't been an excuse for the last 15 years and still WCO's tear ass through the league whenever somebody puts a decent one together.

Steel Power.

I agree with you on the point that blitzing a linebacker and checking the recievers off the line works on beating the west coast offense. However, the reason it doesn't always work with the Rams is that Martz doesn't run the west coast offense.

Before you say "wait a minute" let me explain the difference. The WCO works completely on timing. The quaterback usually only has one check down reciever on any given play and it's all based on timed throws. What Martz does is he puts more recievers in the formation than a defense can line up against. This takes away the chuck and go for the corners. There is also a check down procedure that involves a short and a long "dump off" if the quaterback gets into trouble. This make blitzing more difficult because you always have to commit a linebacker to coverage. The way the Patriots beat this system in the Superbowl was with a basic premise. One linebacker was commited to blitz (almost every down). The others were assigned a close zone to contain Faulk. Now the pressure was on the front four to get penetration. They did. This occupied the line in the point that the blitzer could get to the quarterback. The system works IF the penetration is acheived.

True they went dime package and used the linebackers, who still did a lot of chucking (it's really the only defense against a 3 step pass). And blitz blitz blitz, make sure your blitzing receiver knows to dive at the QB when he starts to throw (so you can hit him without getting called for roughing), Warner doesn't like to get hit and if you smack him a couple of times early in the game his timing is off the rest of the day. You're right that the Rams don't use a pure WCO, I don't think you can afford a WCO under the salary cap you need too many A list players. Martz has done a good job figuring out how to do a budget WCO with lots of zone floods. Unlike Holmgren who insists on running a WCO even though he has no A list players on his offense and it can't possibly succeed (I used to think Mike was smart, then he left Greenbay to be GM and coach of a crappy team, my respect for him stayed at Greenbay, hopefully someday he'll swing by and pick it up).

Submit your stuff, send it out there. Probably won't get picked up by ESPN without experience but you could at least get on a small rag somewhere, get some cigarette money as a part time teacher I knew used to say. Worst case scenario you get on some e-zine that might or might not turn big. I used to go to a little hockey e-zine that was written by one guy in Pittsburgh and mostly focused on their goalies (cause the writer had been a goalie in college), now In The Crease actually gets some respect, nails good interviews and the writers(!) even get press credentials (free games). ESPN even stole a couple of their writers. Reach for the brass ring. Just make sure you tell us the URL when you get picked up so you'll get lots of hits.

I really appreciate your encouragement, I tried to send out my predictions last year. Sent it to Dan Patrick, ESPN main office, Sports Animal (local sport radio station) and got no takers. I think I will try the e-zine route you are talking about. It's good to see another Freeper student of the game. The thing Martz did wrong with New England's dime package was his obstanance to going back to the basics. If your in a situation where they are diming you, then start running the ball up the gut. Martz did not do this. Defense if my favorite aspect of the game, and I understand it well enough to know that a good offense will do things to keep a defense honest.

The problem with trying to jump straight to something like ESPN is you need to present a reason for them to read it, that's what agents are for. But you don't want to hire an agent until you have some indication people will actually go out of their way to read your stuff. Back in the old days that meant volunteering to cover high school sports at your local paper, now that means volunteering to write for an e-zine or three on the net. If you wanta radio gig you've got to send tapes, they really don't care what you say they care how your voice sounds. They figure they can teach you sports, they can't teach you to have a good radio voice.

Martz definitely should have started running a lot. He's got the good back, and the Pats were committed to the pass. Add to that the fact that his QB was out of rhythm and doing a couple of quick hand-offs can really help get a QB's head back in the game. Of course I say all this aknowledging that I always root against dome teams. I think Martz got himself trapped in the new thinking (Madden's column over on ABC talks about this). Back in the old days you established the run to make the defense give your passing game room to work; that's not how it is anymore, now you establish the pass to give your running game room. Martz seemed to be thinking that since they hadn't established the pass the run was doomed, what he didn't realize was that the Pat's defense was assuming every down was a passing down. I'm a big fan of defense myself, IMHO the best Super Bowl ever was Purple People Eater vs Steel Curtain (0-2 at the end of the half), high scoring games are dull; although Pats-Rams was pretty good, if you don't have a horse in the race the most you can hope for is that the game be decided on the last play.

egads!! Even after realigning into 4-division conferences, the NFL still wants wild card games!? Why not just go with the division winners; make it worth something.

And they make it worse by giving the winner of the weakest division (usually translates to more wins for the one good team) a bye week. Whaddacrock!

That said, good piece and nice analysis.

Go COLTS!

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