Recall wins by 10%. Arnold Schwarzenneger by 7%. Freepers, place your bets.

vanity | 10 6 2003

[dennisw]

Recall wins by 10%. Arnold Schwarzenneger by 7%. Freepers, place your bets.

=vanity post=

[dpwiener]

I have a tough time getting a feel on this race or its outcome. A lot seems dependent on turnout. Polling shows that Arnold needs a high turnout to win. The last minute slime attacks are precisely designed to depress turnout. The amount of illegal alien voting/fraud is also an unknown factor.

The turnout is going to be pretty high, as evidenced by the huge number of absentee ballots which have been both requested and already submitted. This is a unique election, and Californians love to be Number One (regardless of whether it's the "worst" or the "best" of whatever). California voters are not going to miss participating in the most famous recall election in history, which has riveted the attention of the nation.

The problem with negative campaigning is that it can backfire and depress the attacker's voter turnout even more than the target's voter turnout. Democrats are far more likely to be turned off by the slime and decide to sit out the election (which all the polls say they'll lose anyway) than Republicans will be deterred from going to the polls.

Remember, Republicans have a choice. They can vote for Tom if they are upset about Arnold. But they will still vote to recall Gray Davis. Democrats have much less of a choice. They don't really want Davis or Bustamante. So the intense union get-out-the-vote effort is going to have rough sledding. Of those Democrats who do vote out of duty or habbit, some will vote to keep Davis and then just not bother to search for Bustamante's name on the replacement list. Other Democrats (especially a segment of Latino voters) will vote against Davis and for Bustamante in hopes of getting a Latino governor.

Net result: I predict 59% Yes-on-recall and 41% No-on-recall. Schwarzenegger will get 41% (but fewer votes than Davis because of the drop-off from the first question), Bustamante will get 32%, McClintock will get 17%, Camejo will get 4%, and other candidates will get the rest.

[RippleFire]

bump

[ambrose]

explain (I'm graph impaired)

[tm22721]

That toilet bowl is too clean for Davis.

BUMP

[daler]

Yup...and as Stalin once said (and I paraphrase), "The important thing is not who gets the most votes...but who is counting them."

[dpwiener]

Recall
Yes: 64%
No: 36%
Governor
Schwarzenegger: 43%
Bustamante: 31%
McClintock: 16%
Camejo: 4%
Huffington: 2%
Simon: 1%

Before the sliming, those are the numbers I would have picked. But unfortunately I think that a bit of the mud really is sticking, and that will pull down the Yes-on-recall and the Schwarzenegger numbers slightly (but not enough to make the outcome close).

[Oldeconomybuyer]

The "hold your nose and vote NO Recall" democrats will be no-shows, and the only reliable Davis voters who turn out will be labor, minorities, illegals, radical homosexuals, environmental extremists, trial lawyers, Hollywood elites, journalists, teachers, and both of Arianna's supporters.

RECALL: 60%
Arnold: 50%
BustaMecha: 28%
McClintock: 20%
Others: 2%

[AmericaUnited]

IOWA Market Graph explainations:

Market:Name: RECALL_1
Description: 2003 CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR RECALL BALLOT 1 MARKET
Open Date: 08/27/03 01:00 PM
Close Date: 11/03/03 01:00 PM


Assets:
Name Description
CNCLLD_1 $2.00 if the recall election is NOT conducted in October, 2003; $0.00 if the election is held.
RCL_VS_YES $1.00 times the share of votes cast in favor of recall if the October, 2003 election is held; $0.00 if there is no recall election in October, 2003.
RCL_VS_NO $1.00 times the share of votes cast against recall if the October, 2003 election is held; $0.00 if there is no recall election in October, 2003.
GD_OUT $1.00 if the election is held in October, 2003 and if more votes are cast in favor of recall than against; $0.00 otherwise.
GD_IN $1.00 if the election is held in October, 2003 and if more votes are cast against recall than in favor; $0.00 otherwise.


Market:
Name: RECALL_2
Description: 2003 CALIFORNIA GOVERNOR RECALL BALLOT 2 MARKET
Open Date: 08/27/03 01:00 PM
Close Date: 11/03/03 01:00 PM


Assets:
Name Description
CNCLLD_2 $2.00 if the recall election is NOT conducted in October, 2003; $0.00 if the election is held (Ballot 2)
B2_VS_CB $1.00 times the share of votes cast in favor of Cruz Bustamante on the second half of the ballot; $0.00 if there is no recall election in October, 2003 or the 2nd half votes are not reported.
B2_VS_AS $1.00 times the share of votes cast in favor of Arnold Schwarzenegger on the second half of the ballot; $0.00 if there is no recall election in October, 2003 or the 2nd half votes are not reported.
B2_VS_ROF $1.00 times the share of votes cast for all other candidates combined on the second half of the ballot; $0.00 if there is no recall election in October, 2003 or the 2nd half votes are not reported.
B2_W_CB $1.00 if the election is held in October, 2003 and Cruz Bustamante wins a plurality of votes in the second part of the ballot; $0.00 otherwise.
B2_W_AS $1.00 if the election is held in October, 2003 and Arnold Schwarzenegger wins a plurality of votes in the second part of the ballot; $0.00 otherwise
B2_W_ROF $1.00 if the election is held in October, 2003 and a candidate not represented by a candidate-specific Winner contract wins a plurality of votes in the second ballot; $0.00 otherwise

[StevieB]

Recall happens -- 57% to 43%.

Arnie wins with 45%+.

This is all based on "gut feel" -- which is about as good a way of predicting as anything else, given the state of affairs in California lately!

[ambrose]

What do you make of all the conflicting polling reports?

In my opinion, the Hitler slime may have been more damaging than the bimbo thing.

I am also a little bit surprised at just how hard Grayout has been pushing the groping thing. The first day it hit, he said nothing and it is simply up to the voters to evaluate. Ever since then, he has been going bananas pushing this. Usually, candidates prefer to use surrogates to do the hardball campaigning...

Anyway, just one day left...

[joesbucks]

I guees like Arkansas, California will have to have the Sexual Predator signs posted as you enter the state.

[AntiGuv]

I don't think the sliming is gonna make much difference, but if it does I think it'll make more difference to the recall outcome than to the second part of the ballot. Either way, I think the election results are preordained at this point short of major, shocking revelations...

[Just mythoughts]

This is what the polls say, however, the Republicans better make sure that is what the votes say.

They better make sure that the election does not get stolen in the voting booth by a bunch of cheating lying liberals rigging the votes.

[Brian Allen]

Brookes' economics editor, Gerry Jackson, is right when he says, Billyboy, that "hate and malice is what defines the left."

And you're the definitive example of what's left!

Four hours after my dog's had its dinner?

[ALOHA RONNIE]

NEVER FORGET


...BUSH went into the Year 2000 Election ahead in National Polls by 5% points.

...Vote on Oct. 7th in California like your very FREEDOM depends on it...

..'cause it DOES..!!!!


NEVER FORGET

[KQQL]

Yes on recall 56%
No on Recall 44%

Arnold 44%
Cruz 37%
mClintock 12%
Camejo 3%
Others 4%

[snopercod]

Thanks for posting that stuff. Looks like its buh-bye for Davis!

[Rudder]

Too early to predict, McClintock's still surging.

[PJ-Comix]

What happened to Cruz Bustamente? Did he quit campaigning? One fringe benefit of an Ahnold win is that Cruz Bustamente will remain as Lieutenant Governor and when the two of them appear together, it will be like a scene out of the movie Twins.