Posted on 11/09/2006 11:24:32 AM PST by weegee
Warning for GOP in Harris County Election results show Dems could prevail here as soon as 2008
Harris County Democratic and Republican officials have looked at Tuesday's local election results and they agree: The GOP-dominated county government could be recaptured by Democrats as soon as 2008.
"Believe me, it's being discussed," said Republican Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector Paul Bettencourt, a conservative leader.
"It's an amazing wake-up call," said Republican County Commissioner Steve Radack.
In an election when many ethnic minority voters didn't vote, Republican judicial candidates on the bottom half of the Harris County ballot won by an average of fewer than four percentage points — 52 percent to 48 percent.
The average margin four years ago was more than nine points.
If minority voters had been energized, as they might be in the 2008 presidential year, it could have been a Democratic sweep, some analysts said.
They point to Dallas County, long a GOP stronghold, where Democrats claimed every countywide seat elected Tuesday.
Here's what political analysts and party officials are seeing:
Countywide judicial races are considered a good indicator of party feelings. There are so many of them that voters tend to choose based on party affiliation rather than knowledge of individual candidates or issues.
The Houston Chronicle calculated the combined GOP margin of victory for all contested races for state district courts, which are elected countywide.
It was 3.9 percentage points, the smallest since at least 1998.
Some Republicans evaluating Tuesday's results said conservatives didn't get out to vote. Others said the problem might be that fewer Republicans voted straight-party tickets because the governor's race included two independent candidates.
Those lost straight-ticket votes might have benefited down-ballot judicial races that voters otherwise didn't bother with, Radack theorized.
Democrats noted that the margin in the judicial races was close even though ethnic minorities who generally vote Democratic skipped the election, which featured few Hispanic or non-Hispanic black candidates in showcase races.
In the 11 state House districts within Harris County that have Anglo majorities, voter turnout Tuesday was 36 percent. In the 12 with non-Hispanic black and Hispanic majorities, the turnout was 26 percent.
Local Republicans faced a national political current Tuesday that they hope is temporary — congressional scandals and wide dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq.
But the demographic trends are long-term: The Hispanic population is booming and the Anglo population is not.
"The Republican Party is not attracting minority voters the way it should. I've been saying this for 10 years," Radack said.
Former Harris County Democratic Chairwoman Sue Schechter said she regrets the party didn't put more money into the judicial races this time. It might have made a difference, she said.
Rice University political science professor Bob Stein said an immediate effect of Tuesday's local and national results could be interest from talented Democrats who realize they have a legitimate chance to be elected next time around.
Radack predicted trial lawyers, stung by lawsuit limitations enacted by Republicans, will pour money into the races.
When state District Judge Katie Kennedy stepped down in 1999, she was the last countywide Democratic officeholder.
In the closest Harris County judicial race Tuesday, Democrat Mary Kay Green got 49.4 percent of the votes against Republican incumbent Annette Galik for a family-court bench.
The margin of victory was 6,800 votes, but the "under vote" — the number of people who voted in other races on the ballot but not that one — was 51,000.
There's no way to tell which candidate would have benefited most had those 51,000 voters made a choice for the 245th District Court.
But the demographic and political trends seem clear.
"Doomsday is coming," said UH political science professor Richard Murray.
Radack said factors such as the independent gubernatorial candidates and national scandals made things worse this year. But the handwriting was on the wall for anyone who cared to read it, he said.
Houston PING
No more whistling past the graveyard re: unchecked illegal immigration.
No more whistling past the graveyard re: unchecked illegal immigration.
I know of several conservatives (hunting buddies) who voted for Nick Lampson. The were not convinced that Gibbs was a conservative, and Lampson was moderate enough for them on social issues and he did vote against NAFTA. Besides he did get the endorsement from the NRA and the TSRA. That carried a lot of weight with my hunting buddies
Well, when they finally get their amnesty...
It'll be a shoe-in...
But since we don't need immigration reform anymore...And the soverienty of our country doesn't mean squat to anyone...And we couldn't get effective enforcement of our borders...
"Joder extranjeros ilegales pueden besar mi asno!"
I too must admit my views were similar to theirs in this electiion. Republicans had best start an abrupt steering correction and stop running and catering to the left or the next cycle could be even worse for them, IMHO.
Getting 20 million illegal Mexicans the right to vote in American elections will be their #1 priority to ensure they never loose congress again.
And the saddest part of this mission is that The President will support the dems efforts to grant amnesty, citizenship and voting rights to them.
Harris County is about the only major metropolitan area that does not vote Democrat in the Presidential elections.
We still have Rat mayors (it is a non-partisan office so we may see multiple Rats running against each other but as soon as a Republican enters the race, so does the DNC, and we are suddenly told about it being a "partisan" fight by the local media).
Probably go to work for Ronnie Earl prosecuting Tom Delay.
Tom Delay practically gave his seat to the dems.
How do you figure Shelley S. Gibbs won the special election but lost the write-in?
Where average Republicans too stupid to write her in?
Chris Bell is going to lay low for awhile. He's been kicked to the curb in 3 political elections (mayor, congress, and governor).
His biggest purpose served for The Party was to file the ethics charge against Tom DeLay on his way out (after he'd been defeated in the primary by a black Democrat after redistricting; note he never mentioned his district was STILL HELD by Democrats BY DESIGN).
He's said he's going into the private sector "for awhile".
He is too anxious to run our lives, I don't see him staying out of politics. Note how he ran for different types of office rather than perfecting a run for a single office?
Maybe you should get some new hunting buddies.
Could have been ignorance, could have been laziness and it could have been they were upset in how she was selected.
I think all three were factors.
In 08 we will have a single Republican candidate on the ballot and retake the seat.
Does the NRA/TSRA endorse Pelosi, because that is who Lampson endorsed.
By the way, Gibbs, received an 'A' from the NRA as well.
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