I don't live in the second district but I know people who do. Ryun had basically ignored the district for the last couple of years. And he got caught lying about Mark Foley. He claimed in public that he barely knew the man when they lived next door to each other and hosted block parties together. So I honestly think that Ryun is toast and that a new face is needed to win the seat back.
How strong Boyda is will remain to be seen. An incumbant is always most vulnerable in their first re-election. A lot will also depend on how she does in the next two year in office. She sponsored H.R. 476 which denies pensions to congressmen or senators convicted of bribery, perjury, or conspiracy charges and it passed 431 to 0. Not a bad start for a freshman from either party.
One thing we cannot assume is that Boyda is stupid. She is not. Regardless of who we run against her, she will be a tough opponent and if the GOP is going to take the district back we can't afford a bruising primary fight. The new head of the Kansas GOP has to show some leadership.
Yes, Democrats know how to hold vulnerable seats. They are experts at this. Ryun seems to have goofed badly, and that isn't easily forgiven, considering the stakes in the '08 election especially.