Strategically in big picture, McCain only has to hold serve, but that is only the starting point.
Tactically, you have to look at the polls, and the big poll issue for Obama is Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa. NM and IA were very marginal Bush wins. Colorado is the real problem. The polls show Obama will take it. Colorado is loaded with fringe liberal types up around Boulder and they frankly have sat out or voted Green in recent elections because the Democrat was not leftist enough. Obama is leftist enough.
Poll results are all dependent on turnout model, but the problem is this year everyone’s turnout model for Colorado is showing it blue.
James Carville once said “you show me a candidate that is depending on new voters for victory and I’ll show you a loser.” Odds are pretty good that remains true because the young don’t vote. The problem in Colorado is that the “new voters” are not young. They are leftist true believers who now have a dog in the fight.
Something has to balance the loss of Colorado with a probable loss of NM and IA. Bush got 286 EVs. Losing Colorado’s 10 as well as NM’s 5 and IA’s 7 and McCain is 6 short of 270. New Hampshire will be 4 of that. McCain is leading polls there. But that still leaves him a loser, 2 short.
Things then become rapidly too close for comfort. Michigan’s 17 is certainly more than 2, and can make up for surprises like Montana, where Hollywood’s influx has put two Democrat Senators in office. Or either of the Dakota’s, both of which have Democrat Senators.
Shoring up the base is pointless. If you give away the moderate states, you’re going to lose anyway, even if the right wing true believers punch their chad extra hard. The fight is just like on a chessboard. It’s for the middle. Always has been. Always will be.
I think that Colorado is the Democrats' fool's gold. It looks good early but in the end doesn't produce. Much like the Republicans in past elections looking at NJ. Despite the early polls, I would be very surprised if McCain lost Colorado.
I think that the polls will change a lot between now and election day. Obama will be exposed as the lightweight and liberal that he really is. Many who currently see Obama as a breath of fresh air will reconsider before voting for him.
On the night of the general election, McCain will take every state where the polls are showing a tossup. Much of Obama's support comes from those who generally don't vote and many won't get out to actually vote. The "Douglas Wilder/Tom Bradley factor" will raise its head again. I think that there are still people who just won't vote for a black man but who won't tell a pollster that for fear of being seen as a racist.
I think that McCain will carry every state which Dubya did in 2004 along with New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and Michigan (without Romney who I don't think will be on the ticket). I wouldn't be shocked if McCain also carried Pennsylvania and Minnesota.
It’s for the middle. Always has been. Always will be.
Which is why I like McCain's chances in the general election. McCain is the most middle-of-the-road candidate the Republicans have run in recent memory. Obama has no credible claims to be a centrist and this will be exposed over the campaign.