[kesg]

If turnout is like 2006, McCain/Palin will almost certainly lose. If it’s like 2004, which I think is MUCH more likely after the Palin selection, the chance of the Obamessiah winning is fairly small.

If turnout is like 2004, McCain wins, and by a bigger margin than Bush did.

[impeachedrapist]

I tend to agree. The only way that really wouldn’t be the case is if the black vote truly sets records in turnout. Not in 90-95% voting for the Dem, but in raw numbers. And even that would only apply in certain states.