If John McCain were really trailing by six points nationally, there is absolutely no way we’d be having this discussion about Maine. Or Minnesota for that matter. Palin or no Palin. (and I mean no disrespect to her)
I agree 100% — they are overpolling Dems by such a wide margin that the national polling outfits are out on a limb even with their state polls.
Still think the MI pullout was not what it seemed.
I know. If McCain was really down by six nationally, he would be down double digits in both states.
It really comes down to turnout. Take today's Rasmussen's numbers as a frame of reference. If turnout is like it was in 2004, he is oversampling Democrats by 2 points and understampling Republicans by 4 points. What he reports as a +5 lead for Obama becomes at least a +1 lead for McCain (I say "at least" because slightly more Democrats will vote for McCain than Republicans for Obama). Even if turnout is like it was two years ago, what was a +5 lead for Obama shrinks to +2 -- within the margin of error.