Not likely. Moran has demographics on his side. His 1st District has nearly twice as many registered Republicans than Tiahrt's 4th District has, and they tend to be white, older, and the kind of voter most likely to turn out for a primary election. Last poll I saw had Moran leading Tiahrt in his district by about 60 points. Moran has strong support in the 3rd District because he has spent almost as much time here as he has in his own. I haven't seen any polls breaking down support here but I'd say that Moran is certainly up, both among conservatives and moderates. His negative campaign may have really hurt him, mainly because most people recognize the charges to be inaccurate. I think that the latest polls from last week are accurate and that Moran is up by double digits. And he will be the next Senator from Kansas. Palin didn't back the winner in this one.
I believe that you are right and its a shame. I predict that Senator Moran will spend most of his time demonstrating how bipartisan he is willing to be.