OH going to lose two seats.
Combine 9-10-11
Katpur-Kasinich-Fudge into one
Conventional Wisdom says that Wisconsin will lose one seat. However, the clean sweep by Republicans of the Governorship, the Assembly, and the State Senate probably means that my district (5) won’t be merged into Milwaukee which surely would turn a safe Republican District into a chilly, blue Dem District. I don’t know how they’ll redraw the lines, but I think we’re safe for now.
Ohio - I don’t think it’s realistic to stretch a district all the way from Toledo to Cleveland. I did see a story that suggested that Republicans sacrifice one of their own in Ohio because of the geography. That should be a last resort.
This might not go over well but I would suggest combining the 5th and the 9th. It would be a fair fight district. It is better to have a 50% chance of retaining a seat than a 0% chance. The other possibility I could see would be attempting to make the 17th a fair fight district. The results are a bit harder to analyze because of Traficant’s 3rd party run, but it would appear that the exurban areas of Toledo are more reliably Republican than the exurban areas around Youngstown....easier to make a fair fight district around Toledo than around Youngstown.
Cuyahoga, however, will not be quite large enough to support two CD’s. So among Fudge, Kucinich, and Sutton, one should definitely lose a seat.
You can’t do that. Districts have to be the same population by law.
The good news is the the GOP will have a free hand to do what they want in Ohio.