... and Noot starts to fade down the stretch with Mutt pulling slightly ahead ... but the Nut is pressing hard on the inside rail and the Filly is moving up slightly on the outside ...
Posted on 12/15/2011 7:02:30 AM PST by Zakeet
A new survey from pollster Scott Rasmussen shows support for Newt Gingrich in Iowa has fallen sharply in recent days. The poll shows the former House speaker with the support of 20 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers -- down from 32 percent in the last Rasmussen survey released November 15.
Gingrich has now fallen into second place in the Iowa race, behind Mitt Romney, who is at 23 percent, up from 19 percent in the last Rasmussen survey.
The complete poll results are: Romney, 23 percent; Gingrich 20 percent; Ron Paul, 18 percent; Rick Perry 10 percent; Michele Bachmann, 9 percent; Rick Santorum, 6 percent; and Jon Huntsman, 5 percent. Ten percent of likely caucus-goers said they support some other candidate or are not sure how they will vote.
In the new survey, every candidate but Gingrich gained support in the last few weeks. The biggest gainers were Romney, up four points; Paul, up eight points; and Perry, up four points. Michele Bachmann climbed three points, as did Jon Huntsman, who has been to Iowa a grand total of one time in the campaign.
Gingrich, on the other hand, fell 12 points.
"This is the fifth consecutive monthly poll with a new leader," Rasmussen says in an email. "It was Bachmann in August, then Perry, Cain, and Gingrich. Amidst all the volatility, Romney's numbers have held steady each month, and Ron Paul has been in double digits each month."
Rasmussen warns that the race remains volatile, with only 40 percent of likely caucus-goers sure of how they will vote.
(Excerpt) Read more at campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com ...
... and Noot starts to fade down the stretch with Mutt pulling slightly ahead ... but the Nut is pressing hard on the inside rail and the Filly is moving up slightly on the outside ...
I knew Newt screwed up when he made those comments attacking Romney. It was a big mistake on Newt’s part. The comments he made sounded like something I’d expect to here form Obama not a Republican candidate. It was so unnecessary for Newt to make those comments. It strayed from his strategy of only criticizing Obama which had been working well for him.
So far, only Rasmussen is reporting this drop. Has anyone else seen any polls that support what Rasmussen is reporting?
Btw, I don’t know how much I’d trust these polls at this point. Non-GOP pollsters will try to make it look like Newt has lost momentum and Romney has gained it.
That was a mistake, but not sure how big an impact it made (or did not make). I think Iowans take themselves a bit too damned seriously in this process and they probably over analyze every news cycle.
And in the end, all of this hoo hah about Iowa normally means diddly.
Romney/Paul 2012.
Yeah. Yeah. THAT'S the ticket.
And Iowa is extremely difficult to poll because of that caucus. Remember in 2008, Thompson was leading going in and we all know how that turned out.
Sorry for the lousy Jon Lovitz impersonation.
Actually, it looks like the Paultards have gamed this poll.
Ron Paul’s ad showing Newt on the couch with Nancy must be having an effect
Netwon Leroy Gingrinch is not electable in a national election.
Time to move on to someone who is electable.
Newton Leroy Gingrinch is not electable in a national election.
Time to move on to someone who is electable.
I bet Paul places FIRST in Iowa due to committed ground game field folks. It may surprise many...Gringrich peaked to soon it seems...talk about a political earthquake. Like the Buchanan shocks on Bush Senior.
Perry will be the last one standing.
Perry/Bolton
Perry/Bachmann
Perry/Palin
Perry/West
Something in this article doesn’t add up.
“Ten percent of likely caucus-goers said they support some other candidate or are not sure how they will vote.”
“Rasmussen warns that the race remains volatile, with only 40 percent of likely caucus-goers sure of how they will vote.”
10%=40%
Ron Paul’s white shirts are staging a putsch!
Not bad news for Newt in any serious way. The RCP average probably is a better measure.
Most important:
Rasmussen has not revealed, or it has not been made public, how he is weighting his sampling of Iowa caucus goers.
If this were a national poll against a democratic opponent, we would be told how many democrats and how many republicans went into the result. We would know the books were cooked if a poll had 800 democrats and 200 republicans.
We are not told how many conservative, moderate, and liberal republicans go into Rasmussen’s numbers.
Since Iowa has been controlled by a very large group of conservative Christians for a number of cycles now, they should be the lion’s share of the sample.
We are not told and/or Rasmussen has not thought of it.
These polls and results in Iowa matter not at all. McCain came in 4th in Iowa in ‘08 and Fred Barnes said it was great for McCain. The establishment and the press will say whatever will push their preferred candidate:
Romney wins Iowa: “Great, our guy has momentum”
Romney comes in second: “The winner of Iowa rarely gets the nomination anyway
Romney comes in third: “Great for Romney! Didn’t even campaign there and still came in third”
Romney comes in fourth: see above quote
It’s Romney, Romney, Romney! Attack anybody else. And once Romney is safely nominated, attack, attack, attack Romney.
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