well, he won’t be looking so good in sc and fl if he loses big in ia and nh. Ask Rudy how the wait for the later contests strategy worked out for him.
the problem is we have too many non-Romneys. They all need to get together and decide on one of them. Hopefully IA and NH thin the herd and by SC we have one solid person to get behind. In tha situation, I think they’d beat Romney rather comfortably.
you also assume that there won’t be someone else who would declare and start running in say Feb/Mar once the field is much smaller. I’m not saying it will happen. But it could. I can think of a few folks who may fit the bill for that.
Agreed. Hopefully conservatives will unite behind a conservative not-Romney candidate who is not Romney Lite, like Newt Gingrich.
Couple of problems with your analysis above. First, Rudy did nothing in Iowa, NH or SC and tried to charge out of the gates in Florida. That's not analagous at all to Newt or anyone else this cycle. Newt will do much better in those states than a non entity Rudy did. Second, Rudy seemed to quit campaigning hard for some reason. And third, I think the influence of NH and Iowa is lessening each cycle. McCain won SC because of the lazy uninformed electorate of 08 on the Republican side and the knee jerk military vote. I think SC voters will be very engaged this season. Then McCain won Florida on top of that. I think fighting the last war (comparing 08) is dangerous. I think almost nothing is the same now as 08.