It might be even simpler than that. There is no Demonrat running in this district which has to be one of the most Republican (but seldom bossed or bought) in the nation.
The filing deadline for third party or unaffiliated candidacies is apparently June 4, 2012. I do seem to remember that Illinois MAY have a "sore loser" law that might prevent Don from running in 2012 in which case David Hale, head of the Rockford Tea Party, should run or recruit a suitably capable and electable candidate. Personally, I would love to see Don Manzullo run as an unaffiliated candidate (or specifically as a Tea Party candidate) and to appeal to the many Rockford Democrat voters who have retained their jobs because Don fought for them and to the many Tea Party groups in that part of the new district that that Kinzinger has represented for the last two years and wantonly betrayed. If we have a "sore loser" law, then he should publicly and vocally manage the candidacy of a Hale or a Hale designee with Hale as co-manager. Kinzinger was on the radio this morning whining about being called a RINO and deriding the term and vowing to "investigate" a veterans' PAC that pointed out that one of his votes may jeopardize the lives of soldiers in the field. First Amendment, anyone???
If such an "unaffiliated" candidate were to run this year and win, it would be a golden result, and if that candidate were to lose, then the candidate could start the next campaign on the first Wednesday after the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November, 2012, for 2014, qualify to challenge Kinzinger in the 2014 GOP primary, and spend two years in which the candidate would run, appear at every barbecue and hockey game and Little League game, and church service where three conservatives are gathered together,recruit every available Catholic, Reformed Christian, and Jew, factory worker, black and Hispanic available, farmer, small business owner, auto mechanic, racing fan (Danica Patrick grew up here), military veteran, gun enthusiast, taxpayer activist, Knight of Columbus, Mason, (many others whom I am forgetting), Republican, conservative, and particularly those fed up with the state and national GOP obsessions and leaders which and who have little or nothing to do with the daily lives of those who live here, etc. Sufficiently organized and trained boots on the ground can beat impersonal mountains of corrupt special interest money.
In admitted or unadmitted support of such a candidacy, we might establish forums on public policy with local or national experts serving on educational panels, or debating one another or debating flat out enemies of our values.
Many things are more doable here than in many places. Last September, the only abortion mill in the old 16th District was closed by (if you can imagine it) by the Illinois State Health Department because of its persistent unethical behavior, lack of even minimal sanitation, failure to establish admitting privileges at ANY of the local hospitals (they were planning on taking any women with punctured uteruses or other life-threatening abortion malpractice injuries 90 miles by ambulance to a Chicago hospital; surviving such a trip would be highly unlikely), failure to employ qualified nurses with professional independence to be utilized to protect patients, etc. It was the little House of Horrors. The mill has forfeited its license by not complying with subsequent court orders. There has been no move to open another. Don Manzullo fought that abomination for at least 20 years, set up a crisis pregnancy alternative, personally took responsibility for raising all the funds necessary to fund it by running an annual fund-raising dinner with nationally known pro-life speakers. Don apparently converted from his childhood Catholicism to the Baptist faith when he married his Baptist wife, but, as Don always points out, our verrrrry hard line Catholic Bishop (Thomas Doran) has told him he is still the best Catholic Congressman anywhere, at least as to his voting record. Don supports us Catholics and we support him proudly.
This electoral tragedy is a real wake up call. Don's defeat by a mountain of mostly corrupt money raised and spent against him under the "Young Guns" program and superPAC of the GOP House leaders blindsided many of us. To that extent it is our fault and as William Wallace said to his fiancee Murrin in Braveheart, "We shall have to remedy that."
Also, I come originally from Connecticut as did the late major league baseball manager Leo Durocher. As Durocher used to say, "Show me a good loser and I'll show you a loser." He had been a rookie reserve shortstop with the Babe Ruth/Lou Gehrig New York Yankees of 1927 and then played for the famous St. Louis Cardinals "Gas House Gang" in the 1930s. We don't have to take such crap as Kinzinger (and Boehner and Cantor and Kevin McCarthy) wish to dish out in service to every corrupt interest in this nation.
If anyone here has a Republican member of Congress, encourage him or her to work to replace the current House (and US Senate) GOP leaders with far better members who actually have principles and backbone and a willingness to actually fight and will not recruit and fund trash like Kinzinger.
June 8 is the deadline for republican and democrat leaders to slate candidates, in races in which no one was nominated, in the primary. Third party and independent candidates can circulate petitions, March 27-June 25. Each congressional candidate, who runs for a new party or an as independent, must submit at least 5,000 signatures.