Shoulda, woulda coulda.
The conservative vote may not have been split as much with her in, but the Establishment would have ensured Romney an advantage just by carrying what are the “blue” states anyway. For example, Romney would still win just about all the Northeast states, the Island Territories, the Mormon Western States, and AZ/FL whether Palin was in or not. The exceptions are MI, OH, AK, and VA where Romney would have lost those states had the vote not been split. Given how “conservative” “red” states seem to be more Proportional and “moderate/liberal” blue states WTA, this would have probably been headed for the convention.
The rules as they stand now will prevent a conservative from ever getting the nomination. The formula needs to be reversed (Southern states need to be WTA and Blue States need to be proportional). The way it’s set up now, we have a nominee that’s going to win by not carrying a single southern state in the primary/caucus season. If Romney wern’t a Mormon, I’d doubt he’d have won any traditional Republican states.
Look on the bright side with Romney. With the long primary process he had to bend over backwards to tell everyone how conservative he is. At the end of the day, that is a good thing. And should be he become president, that can’t hurt.
Its better than the alternative, of him getting the nomination easy as a moderate.