I wouldn’t say many states are non-competitive in Senate races, IF we have a first-tier candidate and/or there’s no entrenched incumbent running.
It was a special election but we got one in MA and now that’s he’s in he’s poised to be reelected.
We’ll see how well Lingle does in Hawaii, I don’t think she’ll win.
Steele did pretty well in Maryland in a very bad year, but that state seems to be going south and getting even more rat.
Mega Rino Castle would have easily won Delaware in 2010.
Douglas could have put VT in play, much like Lingle.
Baumgartner I doubt will be in this, I wouldn’t even put this as a second tier race I’d have to call it safe rat without some evidence otherwise. If Rossi couldn’t beat the imbecile Murray in 2010....
Your overall point is good, but sometimes a little-known candidate comes out of nowhere to score an upset. Baumgartner strikes me as that kind of candidate. As for ideology, I imagine his voting record would be similar to Slade Gorton, the last Republican U.S. Senator from Washington state.