Problem is in the most recent Real Clear Politics info Obama is still up by 2% in the state. He has a shot.
Most of those polls over-sample Democrats by 10-40%, only poll “registered” voters or mere adults, not likely voters, don’t take into account the leanings of the independents they poll and word the polls in such a way as to be beneficial to Mr. Obama. When you plow through all that, Gov. Romney is winning, big, in many swing states. And if Mr. Obama’s internal polls showed him winning in all the states RCP says he is, he wouldn’t be campaigning in those places.
They don’t have virtually unlimited money this time, against a poor sap with only 37 million dollars.