Rasmussen is one of the best and is completely honest. If he's inaccurate it's because we have no data on which to model this unique election year. I like the model he is going with, but we won't know how close he is until people and Chicago's zombies actually vote. [Note: I am independent and do not work for Scott, never have.]
This was the one I was referring to
Rasmussen Daily Swing State Poll: Romney now leading by 4 points in the Swing States
The 11 states included in this poll are: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.
Head-to-Head: (Previous results from September 6)
Mitt Romney 47% (47%)
Barack Obama 43% (44%)
Some other candidate 4% (5%)
Undecided 5% (5%)
A survey of approximately 1,300 likely voters was conducted August 30-September 5, 2012. The MOE is +/-3%.
But to get further info you have to be a paid member of the site(Which I am not) so I cannot read any further