Posted on 10/27/2012 3:17:31 AM PDT by Massimo75
It's well known that Ohio is the key, and that Ohio state polls seem not to follow the national trend (Romney should be leading by at least 3-4, no polls showing him better than tie instead). RCP average in 2008 missed the real result in many states by several points (2.1 in Ohio, 2.5 in Indiana, 3 in Pennsylvania, 3.5 in Colorado, 5 in Arizona e 6 in Nevada) so maybe it's just due to the margin of error but it's worrying anyway.
Anyway if Romney loses Ohio he has to win Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin and New Hampshire (if he wins Ohio only one of them would be enough). So I would like to focus on these five states. Absentee and Early Voting look great so far according to RNC Political Director Rick Wiley:
From:http://www.gop.com/news/gop-blog/gop-ground-game-momentum-absentee-and-early-voting/
"COLORADO Republicans are leading Democrats in absentee ballot requests and early votes by over 10,000 voters. Republicans are outperforming voter registration by 2.13 points. Republicans won the first day of early voting in Colorado. In 2008, Republicans lost early voting by nearly 4 points. Republicans have made 1.5 million volunteer voter contacts in Colorado since the RNC’s AB/EV turnout program began nationwide.
IOWA At this point in 2008, Democrats led by almost 24 points in early voting. Today they lead by 8.3 points, a 65 percent collapse in Democrat support. Almost 5,000 fewer Democrats have voted early this year than had done so at this time in 2008. Democrats are underperforming their share of 2008 AB/EV votes cast by 0.41 percentage points, while the GOP is over-performing their share by 1.23 points. The result is a net swing of +1.65 percentage points for Republicans. Republicans have made nearly 1.1 million volunteer voter contacts in Iowa since the AB/EV turnout program began in the state.
NEW HAMPSHIRE Republicans lead Democrats by over 5 points in absentee ballot requests in New Hampshire’s key towns. Republicans are outperforming our voter registration in absentee requests by 4 points. Republicans have made over 700,000 volunteer voter contacts in New Hampshire since the RNC’s AB/EV turnout program began nationwide.
OHIO Republicans are outperforming our share of voter registration in absentee requests and early votes by 8.73 points. Democrats are underperforming their share of 2008 AB/EV votes cast by 7.60 percentage points, while the GOP is over-performing their share by 5.94 points. The result is a net swing of +13.54 percentage points for Republicans. Republicans have closed the gap on Democrats’ historic absentee and early vote advantage for 15 of the past 16 days. Republicans have made almost 3.7 million volunteer voter contacts in Ohio since the RNC’s AB/EV turnout program began nationwide.
WISCONSIN AB/EV activity is down from 2008 the Democrat counties of La Crosse (-19.25%) and Rock (-6.41%) AB/EV activity is up the Republican counties of Outagamie (12.06%) and Washington (26.14%). On the first day of in-person absentee voting, the Republican bastion of Waukesha County out-voted Dane County, a liberal Democrat stronghold and home to the University of Wisconsin-Madison, despite visits to Madison by high-profile Democrat surrogates and celebrities. Republicans have made over 2 million volunteer voter contacts in Wisconsin since the RNC’s AB/EV turnout program began nationwide."
Everything seem to be going great, but according to others Obama had good news as well, from Ohio in particular. Does anyone have more figures and information that can help to understand who's REALLY winning the early voting match?
Maryland starts early voting today. It is crazy that the author of this story did not add facts. Anyway, Maryland Republicans (yep more than people realize) get out and vote!!!!
Obama’s OH “good news” was one cherry-picked report. Ds are already trailing Rs in early voting by a slight .01 margin-—but Ds were way up at this point in 08. All this is without a single Indy vote advantage. So it looks as though without Is we will still win OH. With the Is it might be 4%, or right where I said it would be 3 months ago.
Early voting starts today, 27OCT, in Florida also. I plan to get my vote posted before the day is done. We need every vote we can get. The storm Sandy is well out of the picture here in Florida, so get it done! I have been thinking about what to do if I see any UN-sponsored “observers” today. Any suggestions? Let’s hope that the weather eases and that there is a better prospect for everyone in the Northeast.
Got my early Florida vote in for Romney. Polling place was pretty crowded. Initially, when I tried to insert page 1 of 2 into the ballot counting machine, an error message popped up saying “ballot too long.” I agree, machine, I agree.
Obama and his campaign, look and sound desperate since the final debate. The MSM is in a state of panic.
Freepers, your opinions please:
I just remembered Rush Limbaugh’s OPERATION CHAOS from 2008. Rush encouraged people to vote in any open Dim primaries for Hillary so it would cause, well, cause chaos for the Dims. Sooo, these ppl who participated in OPERATION CHAOS, did they have to register as Dims to do it? Are they still on the books as registered Dims? If so, then there are a significant number of registered Dims who are really republicans, and so the numbers for early ballot requests are looking even better for Republicans...
I thought the 8 years of Clinton was a nightmare—not even close to this.
Florida starting early voting today and when I arrived at 5 to 7 there was a line waiting to get in.....
Unfortunately, the girl behind me was a dumb as a piece of wood, (no offense to wood) and never stopped reciting the bama talking points.....
The military vote may be very important in Florida.
Iowa was the first state to come out for Obama 4 years ago.
Hopefully, Iowa will not support him in this election.
Team Obama is like the football team down 16 points in the early 4th quarter. They know it is likely over, but just can’t stop hoping to get a turnover, TD, 2 pt conversion, onside kick, TD and 2 pt conversion to tie and go to OT.
Playing out the string knowing the likelihood but still hoping for a miracle.
The Alred thing was the equivalent of a flea flicker that didn’t work.
And why exactly should they "get out and vote"?
I totally disagree with this whole early voting thing. Election day is still 11 days away. Why give the rats any idea of how many votes they need to gin up?
They can steal this election much easier with all this early voting than if they don't find out what they need until election night.
Same here.
I believe that anyone politically active enough to change their registration from R to D in order to participate in 2008’s Op Chaos would have changed back to R in order to participate in 2012’s R primary season.
WI and CO replace OH and one other state is IA or NH
Wisconsin works
“I believe that anyone politically active enough to change their registration from R to D in order to participate in 2008’s Op Chaos would have changed back to R in order to participate in 2012’s R primary season.”
True that.
Kill them.
NOT REALLY JUST KIDDIN!!!
According to Rove, who is becoming more and more a pain in the behind, says OH will be difficult to win because the early voting is trending more towards Obumbler and will most like stay in his column....ughhhh, WHAT A PUTZ!! I hope and pray Romney takes OH and Rove will be in the unemployment line come next year.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.