I just read an article of his on Politico.com
“I have always been a believer in data telling me the full story. Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.”
Is there any place in the internet where you can find this kind of data, for all the states involved, and make a sensible comparision between 2012 and 2008?
Or do we have to rely on inaccurate and sometimes dishonest stories from the media?
The best place I’ve found is http://battlegroundwatch.com. They have some great threads, and some people who really crunch the data, but you have to look around to find stuff.
Ohio seems to be going very well. Most polls show a +Dem turnout, but that looks to be far from reality. Ohio is a traditionally GOP state, and even in 2008 Obama won Ohio by almost 3% less than his national vote total.
Romney looks to be doing well among Indies in OH, so Obama’s chance is turnout, but it doesn’t look like that’s happening for him.