The EBT vote, flukes, homosexuals, and free stuff crowd will also likely vote for her. That leaves us with our work cut out for us if we want a Conservative to win again.
And I disagree with you about losing if we ran a woman. A woman would eliminate the "first woman president" advantage Hillary would have, at least among the middle.
I don't know how surveys do what they do. I still think an attractive, in-charge, intelligent, constitutional-conservative, articulate and energetic guy will attract votes in subliminal ways "the x factor".
People are sick of lousy presidents who don't control an agenda in positive ways. An American equivalent of Putin would win in a landside...if he can get past the political class.