Gloves Are Off w/ Rand Paul and His “Immigration Reform” Freak Fest. Where're This Man’s Priorities?

A Time For Choosing ^ | June 14, 2014 | Isabel Matos

[Jack Black]

That is funny!

I am amazed at how great Ted Cruz has done, he's the legit #2 and many people think he may win the nomination. I would not have believed that possible.

[Jack Black]

It's interesting to go back an look at this. My short comment was in response to Ansel112's kind of rude comment: "when you put it into a more concise format I'll read it", posted in response to my comment #29.

In that comment I pasted in the ranking from Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball. My original claim was (contra the theme of the article) we pretty much *did* know who was running. I stand by that, we pretty much did, and Sabato did a reasonably good job of sorting them out that long ago.

But neither he, I, nor anyone else saw the rise of the outsiders this cycle. Trump isn't in Sabato's grid (and my mention of him was from his failed abortive run in 2012, I had no clue he would run again, and do so seriously, and dominate). Neither are Carly or Carson.

It has been a unique cycle!

Sabbatto did name most of the front runners in either the first or second tier. His tier one: Bush, Walker, Rand and Christie and his tier two: Rubio, Cruze and Kasich. He also correctly calls out Huckabee, and calls Santorum and Perry as "also rans".

What he didn't foresee was Donald Trump!

Harry Enton of 538 (Nate Silver's group) does much less well: In the 538 article "Jeb Bush Has as Good a Chance as Anyone" Harry Enton writes: "In the GOP, establishment support has usually foretold who will win the party’s nod. When a Republican candidate has won the majority of endorsements from GOP public officials, he has also won the nomination, as discussed in the book “The Party Decides.” Romney, for instance, took the most endorsements in 2012."

Here is what I said, that I was wrong about: "Americans do not view the Presidency as an entry level job. Pat Buchanan, Ralph Nader, Hermain Cain, Donald Trump, Steve Forbes etc. And House candidates really never win the nomination, much less the Presidency. Are we prepared to be somewhat realistic?

My sense is that Free Republic has mostly gone in for Cruz and Trump this cycle. So FR, unlike a lot of previous cycles, is doing well as supporting the possible nominees, and not off on some weird tangent as we have been in the past.

Americans may be prepared to nominate someone outside of the Governor, Senator, VP, General group for the first time in a very long time. Or not. If Rubio, Cruz, Christie or Jeb get it we're back in that category. Those are the most plausible alternatives to Trump at this point.

I did hear an interesting analysis on POTUS last night, supposedly one that is going around DC: The way the primaries are set up (many proportional), it's possible that we get to the convention with no one having won the nomination. In that case Paul Ryan is the person the convention will turn to. (I find that incredibly depressing to contemplate, by the way).

Thanks for finding this, it was fun to see!