If you came to my door and asked me if I was going to vote on Feb 1 and who I was going to vote for.....I’d lie my a** off....because it’s none of your business. I’d be very polite and smile.
It's pure genius writing, I tell ya'.
“Fascinating variable shows how Donald Trump’s lead over Ted Cruz could melt away in Iowa”
Or not.
Maybe it will increase, stay the same or go down. You may quote me on that!
BS Trump will go up.
Gilmore will shock everybody and win it!
Business Insider is a lefty publication that has promoted Obama from the time he announced he was running for president.
The media narrative has been shifting away from Trump as the moment of truth draws near.
Go one county/one caucus at a time.
For each county, start with those on the voter role who showed up last time and are known to show up this time.
Add those who are donors to the candidate and those who hold the title of chair or some other title in the campaign.
Add the family members of the above.
Add the close personal friends of the above who have no clue about politics but will come to support their friend. Their friend may be a fellow church member, c0-worker or neighbor.
This is the number of highly probable to show up.
What percent of them is for each candidate?
Now look at the less probable.
What reason/motivation do they have to show up? What motivation/reason do they have to not show up? Are they ideological? Are the introvert or extrovert? Do they know where the caucus will be held? Are they registered to vote?
My experience in local races with a Trump type following is that many supporters are not even registered to vote.
How many new voters has each candidate registered in the past 6 months? Most of my GOTV successes have been when I did a massive voter registration drive. We won in 1994 because MoralMajority/ChristianCoalition registered to vote millions who had never previously been registered or voed.
This was done by County. Now how many counties does each candidate get a majority? The plurality? Come in 2d? Come in 3d? Is each candidate equally strong in the farm areas? The college areas? DesMoines? Quad Cities? Or is the support for some skewed so they are 1st in one county and 3d in the others? For the same candidate, some counties will have an effective ground game while other counties will have hot air.
high turn out = out of staters bused in
Well last time I looked, the forecast for Iowa was for freezing temperatures with a major snowstorm due in either Monday afternoon or Monday night. We’ll have to keep an eye on that, because the weather could definitely affect turnout.