Posted on 08/16/2019 1:31:55 PM PDT by LS
Except this tracked pretty much the same prior to 2016.
You might want to review our threads then, or take a look at my “How Trump Won,” which goes over all the voter trends some of us here at FR spotted at the time.
Zogs is probably a little high, but one analyst looked at his internals and found them to be pretty good. I think he had the Ds +1 (about right).
McSally (with McTurd’s stench on her) was NOT popular among AZ Republicans. Many of the Ward voters thought she fought dirty, and many others thought (rightly) she didn’t even bother to ask for their votes.
Doesn’t surprise me at all. Meanwhile, Enema has become one of the best “sounding” DemoKKKrats in the Senate, constantly offering relatively minor bills for vets, etc. (which I should add McSally is NEVER a co-sponsor of). Enema has voted for many (but not all) of Trump’s judges.
She is VERY shrewd. One of the best pols I’ve seen since Manchin at the state level.
OH purged in 2016 before the election. NV purged. I think this partly explains the rapid surge by NV GOP.
Do you know the total numbers of Ds & Rs in OR?
I’m hearing House. Doubt he would challenge McSally.
I think that’s right.
Just on a personal basis, I urge everyone to do the LS Test:
1) How many people do you know who voted for Trump in 2016 that will NOT vote for him in 2020?
2) How many people have you talked to who said they did not vote for Trump in 2016 (either Johnson or didn’t vote or even voted Cankles) who now say they will vote for Trump?
My answer to #1-—and I meet hundreds of people-—is: 0
My answer to #2 is 2.
Now, if everyone who answers this question has the same experience, that should tell you something.
Trump won indies in 2016. Do you really think he will lose them in 2020 against ANYONE in this whackadoodle cabal?
Do you think Trump will get a higher or lower % of GOP voters in 2020?
I think much higher (3-4%).
Do you think Trump will get more black and hispanic voters in 2020? I think this is obvious. 3-5% more blacks (with another 3% on top of that just staying home) and probably 10% or more Hispanics than in 2016.
They said the same thing about PA. Said the same thing about MI.
This is all meaningless if in fact the trends are to the GOP, which it appears they are. I just don’t know if it’s trending fast enough for 2020, but it is certainly looking good.
Thanks for the updates... looking good.
If PDJT signs new gun control, your numbers are out the window.
Read Tomorrow.
I can’t get the portal to open on my phone right now (I’m out of town and did not bring laptop)...here is url...
https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Pages/electionsstatistics.aspx
Well...THAT IS INTERESTING!
Thank you very much for what you do.
No. Richard Baris of PPD has not done any national polling (no one is paying him to do so, and it’s very expensive).
We can only go by Zobgy, Rasmussen, HarrisX (Scott Rasmussen’s new company), Morning Consult, then the bottom feeders Quinnipiac, Fox which are always about 5 points lower than everyone else.
Based on this, Trump took a brief dip last week of about 4 points. He will rebound, as he always does.
Depends on what any law is.
And, no, the numbers are not out the window as we saw in AZ. The numbers are the numbers. Whatever Trump loses in pro-gun people he likely will get back in suburban moms. It’s a reality.
Interesting post and thread. Thanks.
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