Ascension Parish GOP Forum (Freep Report)

I've written a fairly long account of a candidate forum presented Thursday night (8/29) by the Ascension Parish Republican Party. I'm going to post the main substance of this article here and invite everyone to read further details on my website. What's posted here is my impressions of the three main candidates and an overall impression of their race. Many thanks to the local party for giving me the chance to meet all three candidates. Candidates' names are linked to their official websites.

Suzanne Haik Terrell has some interesting positives and possible negatives in this campaign. She is the least favorite candidate among strong conservatives. The other campaigns have accused her of being only moderately pro-life. She seems to have the support of some beltway crowd Republicans, and I recently read that many of the big names in the party have been trying to channel money into her campaign. Any campaign needs money, but her seeming to receive preferential treatment from the beltway crowd only arouses more suspicion from grassroots conservatives. She has three demographic advantages in this race. First, as a female, she will take some votes from Mary Landrieu among shallow people who insist on voting for a woman. Secondly, she is a Roman Catholic in a state that is still largely Roman Catholic. Thirdly, she is from New Orleans, and Republicans need to draw votes in New Orleans.

Of the three candidates, she was the most pleasant surprise. She was the first to arrive, and I had a chance to meet her before the speaking began. I was wearing my NRA button, and she told me about a bumper sticker that says, "The 2nd Amendment is not a loophole." When she spoke during the official program, she spoke very well. She said that she is pro-life and repeated her support for the Second Amendment. She mentioned wanting to vote for Barry Goldwater as a little girl. She told of running a state office where she cut her own budget and eventually closed the office. She had strong conservative lines, and she delivered them with passion. She admitted that not everyone will agree with her on every issue. Maybe that statement was meant to hide something, but maybe it was just a reality check from an honest candidate. I cannot know for certain that she is not just a RINO putting on a good act, but I saw only positives.

Her campaign is headed for a bumpy ride. She was the most casually dressed of the candidates, and she explained that she had just come from her daughter's volleyball game. She said that she was able to reach the event on time because unlike the other candidates, she hadn't been invited to other events. If she is having trouble getting invitations to the events where the other candidates are speaking, she will not be able to raise the support to reach the run-off.

Her campaign had the least of everything. She didn't bring brochures, push cards, bumper stickers, or yard signs. She didn't have a group of supporters wearing lapel stickers with her name. I came home and checked online, and her campaign website is just a logo with "Coming Soon" under it. Google.com gives a link to a page in development, and the site will be pretty nice when it is launched. However, a campaign site needs to be up and running before late August.

Campaigns need time and money to build, and I understand that she is a relatively late entrant into the race. The usual campaign "stuff" is less important than the candidate's substance, but when I see a candidate who doesn't have any of the usual stuff, I am pessimistic about the campaign. Her speaking drew good applause, and maybe many in the audience would have been wearing "Suzanne Haik Terrell" lapel stickers had they been available. If she is going to win, her campaign will need to present a stronger appearance at these events.

Whether she makes the run-off, her candidacy will help prevent Mary Landrieu from winning in November. The concern that will reduce her support among many Republicans is that she will talk a good game now but become another Elizabeth Dole or Kay Bailey Hutchinson when she goes to Washington. If she is in the run-off, she will receive tremendous support from the national party. She perfectly matches the image that the party is trying to project, and President Bush will probably spend so much time here that the party will have to change its mascot from an elephant to an alligator.

Tony Perkins is the religious conservatives' favorite in this race, and he is an impressive candidate. He has been a marine, a police officer, a small businessman, and a state senator. As a state senator, he has been a champion of low taxes and less costly government. Earlier in the year, I e-mailed the Cooksey campaign once or twice, and I never received any replies. When I e-mailed the Perkins campaign about a month ago, the campaign answered my e-mail the next day. I had asked about the assault weapons ban and whether he would allow it to "sunset" as it is scheduled to do in 2004. The campaign's answer was that Mr. Perkins would certainly not support its renewal.

I'm on the Tony Perkins mailing list, and I have received a few campaign letters. One of them includes an endorsement from Dr. James Dobson. This endorsement will cut both ways. Many religious conservatives will support any candidate that Dr. Dobson endorses, and a large number of them will include financial support. The downside of this support is that many moderates see Dr. Dobson as the grasping hand of religious tyranny and will vote against a candidate who receives his support.

Tony Perkins's personal demeanor is very polished and proper. He is in good physical shape and dressed very well. His face is lean and his hair neatly combed. His voice was controlled, and he spoke more for substance than for applause. I'm sure that many of his supporters liked Alan Keyes, but Mr. Perkins isn't a fiery orator. Likewise, he didn't show the folksy style that makes many in "Bush Country" love President Bush. The Dobson endorsement made me compare him to Gary Bauer, but he has the aura of a quiet Marine and not a career bureaucrat.

A friend at work is a strong supporter of Mr. Perkins, and he thinks that the Democrat attack will be the old "religious right" scare. He said that in '96 the Democrats attacked Landrieu's first opponent by claiming that he would unleash religious tyranny. While reality rarely influences the Democrat smear machine, making Mr. Perkins seem scary in any way is silly. He is a serious man wanting to be a good public servant.

Tony Perkins touched all the usual conservative themes. He emphasized his pro-life and pro-Second Amendment beliefs. He talked about lowering taxes and reducing the size and cost of government. He mentioned his military experience and his qualifications for dealing with national security issues. He emphasized his own record of working for these beliefs as a state legislator.

The Perkins campaign came with all the trimmings. They had bumper stickers, little signs, big signs, brochures, cups, lapel stickers, and T-shirts. I took a T-shirt and will make a generous contribution even if I eventually switch candidates. I would guess that almost half the audience had Tony Perkins stickers on their shirts. His website is the best in this race. He will run a strong campaign and would be an excellent senator.

Dr. John Cooksey is a Congressman from the northeastern part of the state. He won election in '96 and promised not to spend more than three terms in the House. He is keeping that promise and will either be in the Senate or at home in January. He has the endorsement of Louisiana governor Mike Foster and may be considered the "front-runner" by many. Shortly after the terrorist attacks, he said something like "If you show up at the airport with a diaper held on your head by old fan belts, you can expect to get some extra attention." I don't have the exact quote, but this "diaperhead" comment quenched much of his national support because the beltway crowd was afraid of appearing "insensitive." For those of us tired of pandering to all Muslims because some of them attacked our country, sending Dr. Cooksey to the Senate would be a sweet victory.

I think Dr. Cooksey is a fun candidate. He has the demeanor of a good old country doctor and Southerner. He would sometimes start to say something, stop, and say, "I'm not supposed to say that." He would sometimes say it and then say that he wasn't supposed to say it. The things he said weren't offensive and were only mildly politically incorrect, but having won the reputation as someone who says what he "shouldn't," he was going to have fun with it. This event wasn't covered by the press, and I think he will be more careful about public comments. Most importantly, he hasn't been cowed by the shrill screeching of the politically correct.

His comments included personal stories to illustrate pro-life and pro-gun themes. One of his children was delivered by caesarean section, and he spoke of how horrible it is that abortionists can kill children at that stage of development. He spoke of how he felt after the terrorist attacks while he sat in his apartment in Washington D.C. realizing that he had nothing to defend himself and his wife but a butcher knife and a broom handle. He wants to go to the Senate so that Louisianans do not have to feel the same way in their homes.

His campaign also came with all the trimmings. I picked up a cup and a lapel sticker. I would guess that he had just slightly fewer supporters than Mr. Perkins, but the numbers were close. A few people commented that he has good support among the party leadership at the parish level.

I left the forum with a good feeling about all three major Republican candidates. I think any of them would vote the right way on most issues. They all spoke of a desire to work with President Bush and particularly to support President Bush's judicial nominations. I don't know whether any of them would be likely to become a conservative leader or contender for higher office. Unless I hear something that changes my mind, I will be happy to support any of them in the run-off.

I noticed that Dr. Cooksey and Mr. Perkins occasionally made negative references that appeared to be directed at one or both of the other candidates. Dr. Cooksey said that we should know that he is running to be a senator and is not using this election to gain name recognition for some other race. I would guess that Mrs. Terrell was the target of that comment, but I don't know what other race she might enter. (If she does enter another race, I'll likely support her.) Mr. Perkins emphasized that he would be independent and not owe his position to anyone but the citizens of Louisiana. This reference could be directed at the governor's endorsement of Dr. Cooksey or could be directed at the perception that Mrs. Terrell has liberal Republican support from Washington.

I think this kind of sniping at the other Republican candidates is foolish. Having three very different Republicans in the race is beneficial because it makes a run-off more likely. We can reasonably expect that the more motivated voters who would decide a run-off would be conservatives. Taking shots at the other Republicans will only antagonize their supporters and reduce the support that will be needed in December. Unless someone has specific, verifiable evidence that one of the candidates is not what he or she seems, each candidate should emphasize his or her strengths and let the voters decide. In December, we should vote together to send one of these three to the U.S. Senate.

Great report. I am likewise hopeful for an upset in LA this fall. What I hope will happen this time around will not be the rush to declare a frontrunner on the Republican side before the November primary. In 1996, Woody Jenkins was touted as the frontrunner, and it made all the other Republicans spoilers to Woody instead of serious contenders in their own right. (Had Republicans been able to solidify support around one candidate, Landrieu could have been beaten)

In my home district (represented by David Vitter) there is solid support for Perkins. I'm still musing over whether to pick him or Terrell, but as the days go on I'm leaning towards Perkins. But I'll solidly support whatever Republican gets in the runoff.

I think we are already past the "rush to judgment" phase. The "undecided" vote is bigger than the declared support for any of the three Republican candidates so far. The combined polling for the Republican candidates is around 35%. Landrieu is getting about 45%. I suspect that most of the undecided will break for Republican candidates because the people who haven't decided are mostly Republicans like you who are still taking a long look at their choices. If we count most of the undecided in our camp, the race is very close.

The polls show that Mrs. Terrell is slightly ahead of Mr. Perkins, but nothing I saw Thursday night would suggest that situation. I wish all of them would put schedules on their websites so that I could visit more of their rallies and see what they have to say.

WFTR
Bill

I know that you are still disappointed that Governor Foster didn't run, but my perspective as a newcomer to the bayous is that we have three good candidates. I admit that none of them has a good a chance as Governor Foster would have had. Because you've shown an interest in the Louisiana US Senate race, I thought I'd drop you a ping. I admit that I was stupid to title this thread as I did. I should have called it "Louisiana US Senate Candidate Forum" or something similar.

My concern about Mrs. Terrell is that she doesn't have a visible campaign anywhere that I have seen. She said some great things at the candidate forum, but there seems to be more enthusiasm for her campaign in Washington DC than there is in Louisiana. I will be glad to support her in December if she makes the run-off, but I would feel better if the campaign seemed to be doing more at the grassroots level. One argument that I have heard against her is that she just doesn't have a base that will bother to vote on a Saturday in December.

On the positive side, her campaign website is now up and running. It looks pretty good so far. She doesn't have a section on the issues, and I think she needs one to draw more conservative support.

May I ask what led you to choose Mrs. Terrell as your first choice?

Well I first took notice of her during her last election for elections commisioner. I thought she represented herself good and was someone I could trust as well as having a seemingly honest platform.

And I think she'd do well in representing Louisiana. But then again Mr. Perkins sounds good as well. I just didn't hear much about who he is till recently.

I think either one will do well if elected I just think Terrell may have a slightly better shot. Just as long as we can get out every possible Republican we have little to worry about in terms of forcing a runoff. We then only have to worry about the sheep in New Orleans.

Thanks for the reply. I'm new to the state and still learning about the people who have been in public life. I can see where someone who has run a good statewide race in the past and performed well in office would be very attractive. As I said in the original thread, all three candidates are very attractive. I hope that the party can rally behind the one who reaches the run-off.

Louisiana has a unique elections system where all applicable candidates run for the office in question. Then the top two vote getters if no one secures a majority are then pitted against each other at a later date.

That way you can end up with 2 Republicans or 2 Democrats running against each other. In this case it helps to chip away some of Landrieu's support as well as garnering a larger Republican voting base to lower her overall percent and force a runoff with one of the Republicans.

According to Politics1.com, the final ballot will be as follows:

Mary Landrieu (D)* -
Raymond Brown (D) - Minister
John Cooksey (R) - Congressman, Surgeon & USAF Veteran
Tony Perkins (R) - State Rep., Marketing Executive, Ex-Police Officer & USMC Veteran
Ernest Skillman Jr. (R) - Retired US Navy Officer & GOP Activist
Suzie Terrell (R) - State Elections Commissioner, Ex-New Orleans City Councilwoman & Attorney
Gary Robbins (Libertarian)
Patrick "Live Wire" Landry (Independent) - Electrician & '99 Congressional Candidate
James Lemann (Independent) - Aircraft Mechanic

Ernest Skillman Jr. was the fourth candidate at the forum, and I doubt that he'll pull more than a couple of hundred votes. He had a hard time speaking in a way that was clear and on any kind of message. I'm sure that he is a good man, but I can't see him gaining real support.

I have no idea who the other candidates are. Raymond Brown may split a few Landrieu votes. The Libertarians have people running in many races, so I'm guessing that there are a fair number of them. If they can just register a percent of the vote, they help force a run-off. I doubt that any independents will break a percent, but sometimes people who haven't looked at the other candidates will throw a vote to an independent just to make a statement against the big parties.

I'm sure that many of the undecided voters are Republicans who haven't made a choice among the three main Republicans. We will get most of their votes, but we still need to make a big effort to sway other voters to one of our candidates.

WFTR
Bill

The Republican candidates need more New Orleans area air time. Most of the commercials I see on the local stations are of Mary Landrieu.

My heartburn will never go away if I keep seeing her commercials.

After all, New Orleans area is where Landrieu had "stolen" votes, and had allowed dead folks to vote.

I don't know whether they have the money to flood the airwaves yet, but I hope that the Republican candidates can do what you have suggested. I know that the Perkins campaign is going to make an effort to put more yard signs in New Orleans, but yard signs aren't as effective as commercials with many people.

I don't know what they can do about the election fraud perpetrated by the Democrats. I hope that Mrs. Terrell made some changes to make it less likely when she was Elections Commissioner.

WFTR
Bill

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