That was certainly the thinking at the time! This newly created district contains 60% of Gekas' old constituents, and it went about 57% for Bush in 2000. However, I think the GOP was caught off-guard by how unorganized the Gekas campaign was. He had never been involved in a competitive race in his life, and was paired up against an aggressive, young, moderate Democrat from a swing district who knew how to raise money. That put him into an early hole, and even some in the GOP acknowledged that Holden had the advantage. However, from this article, it sounds like Gekas is no longer at a financial disadvantage, especially considering there is a Bush fund-raiser upcoming. I also find it encouraging that Holden does not have a lead in the polls, considering his fast start here. This race may yet swing back to the GOP, but it's still too close to call, IMO.