Where are we in the race(s) for the Senate?

[ConservativeDude]

Predictions?

[Txslady]

Something just doesn't seem right about these Zogby polls. One week it's one extreme and then the next week it is the complete opposite. Stay optimistic but not so much to not vote. :o)

[Redmen4ever]

The third-party skinny in the Senate races:

Remember Al Gore's surge over the prior weekend? A big chunk of that was people who were going to vote for Nader "holding their nose" and voting for Gore. This is a recurrent phenomenon with third-party candidates. (The opposite happens in the rare case when the third-party candidate has a real chance of winning, e.g., Ventura in Minnesota four years ago.)

This is why Colorado is in better shape than it looks. The LP candidate in that race is currently registering 4-6 percent (usually these respondents lumped into "undecided"). This is why Allard and Strickland are both "stuck" in the mid-40s, and why Allard in particular is below 50. Typically, in close elections, disaffected conservatives "come home" to the Republican candidate. A 2-3 point shift from the LP candidate to Allard at the last minute should push him over the top.

A similar thing is going on in NH, with both an LP candidate and a write-in campaign for Bob Smith. Sununu should likewise benefit from a last minute "surge" of people switching from voting with their heart to voting with their brain.

As for Georgia, bear in mind that Max Cleland was only elected six years ago by a vote of 49 to 48 to 3. I don't see the LP candidate doing as well this year as last. True, Cleland is now the incumbant, and there's some advantage to that. But, there are reasons to believe Cleland has not endeared himself with the voters of the state. He is trying to confuse "swing voters" into believing he is a conservative Democrat (like Zell Miller) and that he often votes with the President. Cleland may believe the voters are are stupid in Georgia, but I don't believe they're THAT stupid.

As for Minnesota, I just don't think anybody can make a good prediction for the Senate race because of the three-man race of Governor. A lot of people will be voting, and voting specifically for an independent for Governor. The moderate Republican aligns better with independent Tim Penny, than does the left-wing Democrat Wellstone. However, all things considered, I would not venture a guess.

In Louisiana, another liberal Democrat is playing "trick or treat" with the voter, misrepresenting herself as a conservative Democrat. She is running against three Republicans in Louisiana's unique voting system, and is conceeded to finish first. The question is, will she finish ahead of 50 percent, and be thrown into a run-off. I think the momemtum would be with the Republican in a run-off IF the Republicans win control of the Senate on election day.

Regarding South Dakota and New Jersey, I don't have any third-party skinny, but I will say following: Two years ago, Corzine defeated Frank 51 to 49 percent. Why should Lautenberg be considered a heavy favorite? And, in South Dakota, Johnson has won election statewide several times, six years ago as a Senator, and prior to that as a Congressman. Thune has also won statewide election. Plus, the polls show the Congressional race as close as they show the Senate race.

To sum it all up:

Republicans slightly favored to keep CO and NH and to win MO.

Toss-up in SD and MN.

Democrats ever so slightly favored to win AR.

Democrats slightly favored to keep GA and NJ.

AND, if Landrieu is in a run-off, and the Republicans have already won control of the Senate, possible toss-up in LA.

My prediction on is a two-pointer for the Republicans.

[ConservativeDude]

thanks for the inside view from CO.

I am a big fan of Gov. Owens. You may have seen Nat Rev list him as the best gov in America. He could be a real factor in '08.

[The Old Hoosier]

That poll is completely nonsensical, anomalous.

[LisaFab]

Hey Hoos, how are you? I agree about Zogby - he seems all over the map.

[ncweaver]

anomalous

That's what I like about FR...my vocabulary grows everyday.

During the 2000 election, the polls drove me crazy and they are at it again. Some say Zogby's polls are so good, but how can they change so dramatically from week to week?? Most pundits are saying Wellstone's toast. Sure hope they're right. I'd better stock up on Tum's for election night.

[GoldenBear]

I also live in Colorado and could not agree with you more!

The Repub. Governor will be reelected by between 30-40 points. The republicans are better organized than the RATS (I know that is very hard to believe). The Republicans have much better candidates top to bottom.

The race for this Senate seat 6 years ago was the same with same candidates, except it was an open seat 6 years ago. Six years ago the projections right up to the day of the election were that Strickland would win. Allard won by 5 points. Allard, as the incumbent with a Republican Governor that will win in a landslide, will win by 5-7 points.

[mwl1]

I agree with your assessment at this point in time. Georgia is winnable, GOP should direct more resources there.

[vin-one]

coop, come on, talk to me, did you switch to the darkside,
What's up with that.

[BoomerBob]

I agree with you that Owens is a rising star. 2004 could present some interesting options for him. If Cheney steps down, Owens could be a long shot to fill the Veep slot. Also, Sen. Campbell may not run again, opening up a spot for him to run for Senate.

If Owens doesn't make any moves in 2004, then 2008 will certainly bring about many options. He's term limited after this gub. election so he could run for President, vice-president or Senate (against Strickland if he should win or for Allard if he steps down.)

For my money, and as a political junkie, 2008 will be one of the most intriguing U.S. elections in decades!

[Coop]

Six years ago the projections right up to the day of the election were that Strickland would win. Allard won by 5 points.

And Allard was outspent in that race by about $1 million, according to today's Denver Post.

[Coop]

coop, come on, talk to me, did you switch to the darkside, What's up with that.

What? Was I too biased in favor of the GOP?

[vin-one]

Democrats - 59, Republicans - 41

this is getting scary,????

What? Was I too biased in favor of the GOP?
or are just trying to scare the vote. as opposed to Rock the Vote

[AlGone2001]

I just wonder which states will be using the courts on Wednesday to revoke the elections?

[longtermmemmory]

Which is why we need the maximum number of freeper poll watchers.