If Nader had not run in 2000 studies show that only a tiny fraction of Nader's 2.8 million votes would have gone to Gore Nadar himself said that about 40% of his votes absent him would have voted for Gore, about 25% for Bush, and the balance would not have voted. Those numbers are consistent with my precinct by precinct analysis that I did in connection with CD redistricting when examining what happened with down ballot races vis a vis the Nader vote. Heck, my GOP mother voted for Nader, and GOP down ballot.
Let's see.....Nader received 97,488 votes according to this article
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/772471/posts
So.....if Gore got 40%, that's about 38996
25%for Bush is about 23371
The difference of 15624 is far more than enough for Gore to win Florida and be President.
Even if Gore won only 1% more of Nader's votes than Bush, certainaly a reasonable expectation, he gains 975 votes which again wins Florida and the Presidency.
Am I in error here?