New poll for Colorado Senate

The Denver Post ^ | October 24, 2002 | Julia C. Martinez

[BoomerBob]

There are several things that I like about this poll...

For one, those that have been following this race know that Strickland and special interest groups have been advertising heavily over the last two months and Strickland can't get above 40%.

Second, Cirruli has been a solid local pollster for many years in Colorad, and despite being a former Democrat, is generally objective in his polling from prior elections.

The poll does use registered voters as opposed to likely voters, which indicates the number of undecideds is too high.

And finally, Stanley, the Libertarian, is only polling at 3%.

Look for Allard to pull away over the next ten days-- I still am guessing that he wins by six or points.

BB

[BlackRazor]

Poll Ping!

If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!

[KQQL]

The water issue Hurt Strike-land

[KQQL]

The water issue Hurt Strike-land only by 1%...

[mwl1]

good news bump

[No dems 2002]

Hey, BoomerBob, you've got a very valid point here. What I notice about almost all the polls on CO is that Allard really doesn't seem to slip behind. If he's 4 points up, I just don't see Strickland pulling it off. If this was NY maybe, but CO is a GOP-leaning state and the Repubs are expected to sweep the election from the gubernatorial race, etc.

Strickland is way too liberal for Colorado and let's hope the Centennial state voters do the right thing!

[ffrancone]

Look for Allard to pull away over the next ten days-- I still am guessing that he wins by six or points.

Boomer, you are prescient, either that or just a good analyst. On Tuesday, I spoke with Governor Owen's strategist for about 30 minutes. He was walking on air. They poll every night. In the last 10 days, Allard has moved from dead even to six points up. The trend has been steadily better thru the whole period.

Alland hasn't started his big media push yet. Strickland has. As a result, Allard has 5 times as much money as Strickland. (Plus, the AMA has just started a $1.5 million media buy supporting Allard over the last two weeks.)

We also have a BIG get out the vote campaign. Over 1,000 Republican volunteers are going to work full time calling and walking precincts and poll watching the whole last four days before the election. The only way the Dems can win this one now is to steal it. And there's 1,000 of us Coloradans that says that ain't gonna happen.

[KQQL]

Crystall Ball updated :

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

[afuturegovernor]

I hope Governor Owens has coat tails and he can put Allard over the top. The Libertarian candidate in this race is a bonfided idiot - I hope a goon like him doesn't cost the GOP a senate majority.

[KQQL]

Ad barrage to aid Allard in final days

http://www.denverpost.com/Stories/0,1413,36%257E64%257E942712%257E,00.html

[BoomerBob]

I'd like to take a lot of credit if my prediction comes true but maybe, just maybe I'm seeing some of the same polls as the strategist?

The main thing is turn out for the GOP has to meet expectations. For what its worth, I know that Allard and Beauprez got two votes this morning 'cause the missus and I mailed in our ballots.

Keep up the good fight my friend.

BB

[ffrancone]

That's two more in the can. BTW, We're almost neighbors. I live in south Jeffco.

[BlackRazor]

Poll Ping!

There's also a new SurveyUSA poll on this race, from KOAA News:

News First tracking poll shows Strickland gaining on Allard

Our latest News First tracking poll now says the Allard-Strickland race for U.S. Senate is too close to call. One thouand residents were reached by phone by Survey USA.

With a margin of error of 3.8 percent, the poll shows Senator Allard has a two percent lead over challenger Tom Strickland. If voting Thursday, 48 percent say they'd vote for Allard, 46 percent for Strickland, and six percent say they're undecided. Two weeks ago the poll shows Allard leading by nine percent.

New First will commission one more poll on the race, to be released November 3rd, two days before the election.

[BoomerBob]

Actually I'm over on the east side in northern Arapahoe Co. There are hardly any Freeley signs over here... how 'bout Jeffco which I assume is more his base given his state senate seat?

[ffrancone]

Just a note. Yours is a great ping list. Thanks for all the effort.

[BoomerBob]

As with the other races, SurveyUSA's poll's are bouncing around quite a bit. I didn't agree with the 9 point lead earlier and I think this one is off as well. However, if you add in the MOE, they are right on the money (MOE-- the pollster's mulligan). We should see a couple more Cirruli polls and one more Zogby over the next 12 days to clear up the picture.

[ffrancone]

I keep forgetting how far the 6th extends North. I'm well into the 7th so I'm not seeing many Feeley signs. Tancredo is a lock, so there's not much energy going into that race. Actually signeage (sp?) is low all over south Jeffco.

If you are seeing the same tracking polls I am, we may know each other. Were you at the Owens birthday party on Tuesday night? If you were, I was the lucky guy with the beautiful woman in the red suit, with the olive complexion and very long-black hair. Of course, I'm not objective, she's my wife :)

[BoomerBob]

Well, that's gerrymandering for you. The GOP got outfoxed on redistricting this time. I should have stayed in the sixth CD and Douglas Co. should've gotten the new 7th.

I'm afraid that I wasn't at the party (but I work close to the gov's mansion if that helps:). My classwork sometimes brings me in contact with internal tracking numbers but not always from the GOP camp. I'm actually using the Beauprez race to develop a statistical model in a MBA class I'm taking. Its a fun way to get a grade.

Confidentiality requirements prohibit me from sharing any internal numbers that I come across (wouldn't want to flunk my class) but let's just say that Heritage Bank will be looking for a new spokesperson in January.

BB

[Torie]

Someone at MYDD or another site said that Allard's tracking poll has him up by 6%, after being even a week or two ago.

[Torie]

Oh that "someone" was on this thread in reply number seven. My bad. I am doing too much political site surfing. :)