Posted on 10/24/2002 1:40:43 PM PDT by BoomerBob
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Amend. 31 foes surpass supporters | |||||
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Turnaround in poll dramatic | |||||
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Thursday, October 24, 2002 - As political races heat up, voters have cooled to a ballot measure requiring English immersion for non-English-speaking public school students, a survey released Wednesday shows.
Meanwhile, with 12 days before the election, races for U.S. Senate and governor remain unchanged, which doesn't bode well for the Democratic candidates in either race, said pollster Floyd Ciruli. Forty-three percent of registered voters now oppose the anti-bilingual-education measure known as Amendment 31, while 37 percent support it, the poll by Ciruli Associates found. That's a dramatic turnaround from just two weeks ago, when more people supported it than opposed it. "At this point, unless there's a tremendous counter-advertising campaign, which I don't expect, it's going to go down," said Ciruli. "Among Republicans, it's 40 percent in favor and 40 percent against. That's a death knell. They would be the base of support." The race for U.S. Senate remains neck and neck with a whopping 15 percent of voters still unsure who they will support. Republican incumbent Wayne Allard is polling a statistically insignificant 4 percentage points ahead of Democrat Tom Strickland. Two weeks ago, it was 3 percent. While the loss of one point for Strickland is statistically insignificant, Ciruli said, it should be worrisome to his campaign. "I would say Strickland should be concerned. It's very, very close," said Ciruli. "He's had a lot of momentum, he's spent a lot of money and still it's close and still he's behind. I think he would be concerned that he hasn't found the issue, the endorsement that puts him over the top." Republican Gov. Bill Owens continues to lead Democratic challenger Rollie Heath by a comfortable margin of 59 percent to 24 percent, with Heath picking up a few points. A survey two weeks ago showed Owens at 64 percent and Heath at 21 percent. Ciruli said the numbers reflect greater support for Heath among Democrats. The survey of 400 registered voters was conducted between Saturday and Tuesday. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent. The survey found that 14 percent had already voted by absentee ballot or at an early polling station. Overall, it also showed that "undecided" voters increased substantially, in part because the poll asked participants to be more decisive than in the past - to decide for or against as opposed to asking if they "strongly support, somewhat support" and so on. On the English-immersion issue, 20 percent said they hadn't made up their minds, in contrast with 11 percent who were undecided two weeks ago. Nevertheless, support for Amendment 31 has clearly eroded, with more people opposing it than supporting it. The Oct. 12 poll showed that 49 percent supported it, compared with 37 percent now. Since the last poll, Owens and Heath have come out against it, and new television ads are warning that parents can sue teachers if their kids don't learn English under the program. The poll also showed that voters still favor limiting campaign contributions, but support for Amendment 27 has dropped 11 percentage points from two weeks ago. Support for Referendum A, a measure to end term limits for district attorneys, also has waned. A majority of voters still favor mail ballots, but by a much lower percentage - 43 percent compared with 56 percent earlier this month. Opposition to Election Day registration, Amendment 30, appears to be growing, with 58 percent now objecting to the measure - 4 percentage points more than opposed it before. And a measure to change the way candidates get on the ballot seems to be puzzling most voters, with 39 percent undecided on how they will vote on Amendment 29. Candidates can now get on the primary ballot two ways: by getting a nomination from a small group of their own party's delegates at a meeting called a caucus or by having a required number of registered voters sign petitions. The measure would do away with the caucus process.
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(Excerpt) Read more at denverpost.com ...
For one, those that have been following this race know that Strickland and special interest groups have been advertising heavily over the last two months and Strickland can't get above 40%.
Second, Cirruli has been a solid local pollster for many years in Colorad, and despite being a former Democrat, is generally objective in his polling from prior elections.
The poll does use registered voters as opposed to likely voters, which indicates the number of undecideds is too high.
And finally, Stanley, the Libertarian, is only polling at 3%.
Look for Allard to pull away over the next ten days-- I still am guessing that he wins by six or points.
BB
If you want on or off my poll ping list, let me know!
Boomer, you are prescient, either that or just a good analyst. On Tuesday, I spoke with Governor Owen's strategist for about 30 minutes. He was walking on air. They poll every night. In the last 10 days, Allard has moved from dead even to six points up. The trend has been steadily better thru the whole period.
Alland hasn't started his big media push yet. Strickland has. As a result, Allard has 5 times as much money as Strickland. (Plus, the AMA has just started a $1.5 million media buy supporting Allard over the last two weeks.)
We also have a BIG get out the vote campaign. Over 1,000 Republican volunteers are going to work full time calling and walking precincts and poll watching the whole last four days before the election. The only way the Dems can win this one now is to steal it. And there's 1,000 of us Coloradans that says that ain't gonna happen.
There's also a new SurveyUSA poll on this race, from KOAA News:
News First tracking poll shows Strickland gaining on Allard
Our latest News First tracking poll now says the Allard-Strickland race for U.S. Senate is too close to call. One thouand residents were reached by phone by Survey USA.
With a margin of error of 3.8 percent, the poll shows Senator Allard has a two percent lead over challenger Tom Strickland. If voting Thursday, 48 percent say they'd vote for Allard, 46 percent for Strickland, and six percent say they're undecided. Two weeks ago the poll shows Allard leading by nine percent.
New First will commission one more poll on the race, to be released November 3rd, two days before the election.
If you are seeing the same tracking polls I am, we may know each other. Were you at the Owens birthday party on Tuesday night? If you were, I was the lucky guy with the beautiful woman in the red suit, with the olive complexion and very long-black hair. Of course, I'm not objective, she's my wife :)
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