Polls (GOP Club)

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  • Statespoll.com does a superb job of adjusting samples to current reality

    09/28/2016 11:41:39 AM PDT · by LS · 20 replies
    Here is an example of his latest work on the Emerson CO poll where Trump is supposedly up 3: Colorado: TRUMP vs Hillary vs Johnson vs Stein. Emerson, 9/9-9/13, 600 LV Results: TRUMP 41.9% | Hillary 38.3% | Johnson 12.8% | Stein 1.7% Adjusted: TRUMP 45.1% | Hillary 35.1% | Johnson 12.8% | Stein 1.7% 1. This poll oversampled DEM. (Page 14) Democrats 34.2% | Republican 29.4% | Independent 36.4% http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_784e507857734ddb84b32e9d6ee1022c.pdf 2. Realistic Party ID % is - DEM 31.5% | REP 31% | Ind+Other 37.5% 1) Colorado: Party Affiliation (July,2016). Rep = DEM Active + inactive = Total 3.65...
  • AP-GfK poll: Voters question Clinton health despite reports

    09/28/2016 12:52:50 AM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 36 replies
    McClatchy DC ^ | September 28, 2016 | Lauran Neergaard and Emily Swanson, The Associated Press
    The "stamina," the "look": A new poll suggests voters are buying in to Donald Trump's insinuations about Hillary Clinton's health. They're ignoring the medical reports. Voters — especially men — have more confidence that Trump is healthy enough for the presidency than Clinton, according to the Associated Press-GfK poll. It's a disconnect considering Clinton has released more medical information than Trump, and that outside doctors who've looked at the available data say both candidates seem fine. But it shows the political points Trump scored after the Democratic nominee's much-publicized mild case of pneumonia....
  • Trump Comes Out On Top! Billionaire Pulls Ahead In Electoral College Poll

    09/27/2016 9:27:30 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 22 replies
    Radar Online ^ | September 27, 2016 | Staff
    The newly released poll reveals Hillary Clinton could lose the presidency. Donald Trump is riding high after Monday night’s debate performance! A new UPI/CVoter’s state tracking poll released the day after the big event shows that Trump could amass enough votes to win the presidency. According to UPI current numbers suggest that Trump would earn “292 votes and Clinton would get 246 with 270 needed to secure the oval office.” But Trump’s lead still remains narrow. “If the battleground states are not counted, the race would be tied 191-191,” UPI reported. Florida is one of the key swing states that...
  • Black voters critical to Hillary Clinton's chances in Florida

    09/27/2016 3:59:03 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 6 replies
    The Sun Sentinel ^ | September 27, 2016 | Anthony Man
    Geneva Reed-Veal, whose daughter Sandra Bland died in police custody in Texas; Sybrina Fulton, whose son Trayvon Martin was killed by a neighborhood watch volunteer in Sanford in 2012; and Gwen Carr, whose son Eric Garner died after New York City police used a banned chokehold on him, are part of Mothers of the Movement, women whose children were by guns or at the hands of police. They campaigned for Hillary Clinton in Pompano Beach on Sept. 26, 2016. The outcome of the presidential race in Florida could hinge on how many black voters, who turned out heavily for Barack...
  • Post Debate Poll: Clinton Won on Performance, Trump Won Votes

    09/27/2016 3:16:01 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 19 replies
    People's Pundit Daily ^ | September 27, 2016 | Staff
    A Post Debate Poll conducted after the presidential showdown at Hofstra University finds Hillary Clinton put on the best performance, but Donald Trump won votes. While voters 47% to 44% think that Mrs. Clinton “won the first presidential debate,” Mr. Trump won over undecided voters who changed their mind by nearly a 3 to 1 margin. Nine percent (9%) were undecided on the question of who won the debate. Among those who were undecided (5%) before the debate, 31% changed their mind and now say they’ll support the New York businessman. By comparison, only 11% of previously undecided voters said...
  • As I Predicted, Trump "Won" the Debate about the Debate

    09/27/2016 8:27:07 AM PDT · by LS · 59 replies
    self | 9/27/2016 | LS
    As I predicted yesterday, Trump “won” the debate. If one looks at the various reactions, especially from “neverTrumpers” like Ben Shapiro or John Podhoretz, you get pretty much what you’d expect: “whaaaaa, whaaaa, we told you so, he can’t debate, she won.” The trouble is, these people are as out of touch with ordinary Americans as Cankles is. First, yesterday I said that it would not matter who “won’ the debate (the style points, etc.) What mattered was who the polls said won, and the vast, overwhelming majority say Trump won—often by 20 points or more. Now of course these...
  • Trump Pulling Even with Clinton in Minnesota

    09/26/2016 9:15:43 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 35 replies
    Alpha News ^ | September 26, 2016 | Preya Samsundar
    Local and national polling shows a neck and neck race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in Minnesota. MINNEAPOLIS, M.N. — For over 50 years, Minnesota has remained a safe haven for democratic presidential votes. Even in 1984, Minnesota was the only state in the union to vote for Walter Mondale instead of Ronald Reagan, who won in a landslide. However, a new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll shows the race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is much closer than originally thought in the Land of 10,000 Lakes. The new poll numbers released by KSTP this morning show Clinton leading Trump 46%...
  • CNBC Poll

    09/26/2016 8:35:06 PM PDT · by entropy12 · 46 replies
    CNBC ^ | 0926/16/ | playbuzz
    Clinton or Trump: Who do you think won the first presidential debate?
  • Hillary Clinton’s Electoral College lead could be vanishing, according to new polls

    09/26/2016 5:26:35 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 16 replies
    Vox ^ | September 26, 2016 | Andrew Prokop
    Just before the first presidential debate Monday night, a new round of polls has been released that should strike fear into the hearts of Democrats. First off, the national race is looking very tight indeed. Democrats had hoped that Clinton had rebounded after a couple of respected polls last week showed her taking a 6-point lead over Trump. But the newest polls from major outlets — ABC News/Washington Post, Quinnipiac, and Bloomberg — show Clinton up 2, up 1, and down 2 to Trump in a four-way matchup that includes Gary Johnson and Jill Stein. But what’s probably scarier for...
  • Clinton, Trump deadlocked in two key battleground states, new polls show

    09/26/2016 2:03:07 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 6 replies
    WTTE-TV ^ | September 26, 2016 | Sinclair Broadcast Group
    With just hours to go before Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are to appear on stage together before an expected audience of 100 million viewers, just a single point separates the two candidates in two key battleground states: Colorado and Pennsylvania, according to the most recent polling from CNN. In Colorado, Trump leads with 42 percent of voters compared to Clinton with 41 percent. Third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein come in third and fourth places, respectively, with 13 and 3 percent of voters. Meanwhile, Clinton maintains a razor-thin 45-44 percent lead over the Republican in Pennsylvania. Johnson...
  • Polls Show Trump, Clinton Tied in Minnesota with Pennsylvania, North Carolina Tightening

    09/26/2016 12:25:31 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 13 replies
    Breitbart ^ | September 26, 2016 | Neil W. McCabe
    Three Breitbart/Gravis state polls of likely voters — Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina — demonstrate how close the presidential election between Democrat Hillary R. Clinton and her GOP rival Donald J. Trump has become just before the first presidential debate. In Minnesota, Clinton and Trump are tied with each having 43 percent of the vote, said Doug Kaplan, the managing director of Gravis Marketing, the Florida-based polling firm that executed the poll. In Pennsylvania, Clinton leads Trump with 46 percent to his 43 percent, and in North Carolina the former first lady leads Trump 44 percent to the New York...
  • Newest poll shows 'Minnesota is in play' with Clinton up by 7 percentage points (MOE 4)

    09/26/2016 12:25:30 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 20 replies
    Inforum ^ | September 26, 2016 | Don Davis and Reuters
    ST. PAUL—A new Minnesota presidential poll continues to show a closer contest than is common in the state, with Hillary Clinton up by 7 points. However, if Minnesota voters are like Americans in general, half were waiting for debates to begin to make up their minds. A just-released SurveyUSA poll from the Twin Cities' KSTP-TV indicates that if the election were held before the Monday, Sept. 26, opening presidential debate that 46 percent would vote for Democrat Clinton while 39 percent were behind Republican Trump....
  • Trump surges in the polls as the first presidential debate with Clinton looms (Wins 538!)

    09/26/2016 11:11:20 AM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 31 replies
    CNBC ^ | September 26, 2016 | Katie Little
    As the first one-on-one presidential debate between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump nears, Trump has surged in the polls and the candidates are now in a dead heat. A new poll from Bloomberg shows Trump leading his Democratic rival by 2 points. Other polls show Clinton still holding the lead, though not by much. Clinton leads Trump by just 1.5 points, according to a Real Clear Politics poll average, down from 2.4 points a day ago. As recently as last month, this spread was considerably wider, with Clinton leading Trump by as much as 7.6 points. FiveThirtyEight's forecast...
  • Nate Silver: Trump closing in, Clinton lead 'a lot less safe' than Obama's in 2012

    09/25/2016 2:51:05 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 13 replies
    The Washington Examiner ^ | September 25, 2016 | Paige Winfield Cunningham
    (TWEET-AT-LINK) A model from election-forecasting whiz Nate Silver shows Donald Trump once again closing in on Hillary Clinton, as he did right after the party conventions in July, and warned that Clinton's lead is "a lot less safe" than President Obama's lead in the polls in 2012. Silver's FiveThirtyEight website currently gives Clinton a 58.1 percent chance and Trump a 41.9 percent chance of becoming president. That's not the closest the two candidates have been, as Silver's widely-respected projection showed them neck-and-neck on July 30. Clinton opened a wider lead over Trump in August in Silver's model, but Trump has...
  • Morning Call/Muhlenberg Poll: Clinton 44% Trump 41% (Pennsylvania)

    09/25/2016 2:22:58 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 24 replies
    Politics PA ^ | September 25, 2016 | Nick Field, Managing Editor
    It appears the race in PA has tightened. That’s according to the latest Morning Call/Muhlenberg survey, which has Hillary Clinton at 44% and Donald Trump at 41%. Just a week ago, Morning Call and Muhlenberg College had Clinton with a 47% to 38% advantage over Trump. If Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein are included, Clinton’s lead over Trump narrows to two points, 40% to 38%. Johnson and Stein get 8% and 3% respectively. Demographics Digging into the crosstabs, Trump’s gains seem to come from additional support from Republicans (85/5) and the middle of the...
  • Clinton Campaign to Counter Trump's Wisconsin Visit with Anne Holton, Chelsea Clinton

    09/25/2016 7:21:16 AM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 64 replies
    WDJT-TV ^ | September 24, 2016 | David Ade
    Anne Holton, wife of Democratic Vice Presidential Candidate Tim Kaine, and Chelsea Clinton will campaign in Wisconsin on back to back days. The Hillary for America campaign announced the stops Saturday afternoon. Holton will stop in Wisconsin next Thursday. According to the campaign, she will, "...lay out the stakes of November's election and urge Wisconsinites to vote early and support Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine's vision of an America that is stronger together..." Next Friday, Chelsea Clinton will stop in Wisconsin to deliver a similar message as Holton....
  • Trump Edges Above Clinton Ahead of First Debate (39/38)

    09/25/2016 7:20:54 AM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 8 replies
    Morning Consult ^ | September 25, 2016 | Fawn Johnson
    Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 1 percentage point among likely voters who were polled a few days ahead of the much-anticipated debate between the two presidential candidates. The debate will take place Monday evening. The ratings for the televised matchup between the two candidates are expected to be at record highs. Two-thirds of registered voters say they expect to watch the debate, with 41 percent saying they are “very likely” to watch it. In a nationwide poll of 1,712 likely voters taken Sept. 22 through Sept. 24, 39 percent of respondents chose Trump, while while Clinton was the choice...
  • Shock Poll: Trump Within 6 in Illinois

    09/22/2016 1:19:26 PM PDT · by Sybeck1 · 49 replies
    Lifezette ^ | 9/22/816 | Brenden Kirby
    Survey also shows written-off GOP senator trailing by just 2 points Republican Donald Trump is within 6 points of Democrat Hillary Clinton in President Obama’s home state, a poll released Wednesday suggests. The survey by Emerson College, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, shows Clinton leading Trump 45 percent to 39 percent in Illinois. The state’s Democratic challenger for the Senate, Rep. Tammy Duckworth, leads incumbent Republican Mark Kirk by 2 points. That is closer than other polls; most observers consider Kirk the most endangered incumbent senator running for re-election this year. The...
  • Clinton asks why she isn’t beating Trump by 50 points

    09/21/2016 4:40:27 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 60 replies
    The Washington Post's PostPolitics ^ | September 21, 2016 | John Wagner
    ORLANDO — Hillary Clinton gave voice Wednesday to a question on the minds of many of her fiercest advocates in her race against the controversy-prone Donald Trump: Why isn’t she way, way ahead? The Democratic nominee raised the issue here during an address via video conference to a gathering in Las Vegas of the Labor International Union of North America. The former secretary of state ticked off her pro-union positions, including investing in infrastructure, raising the minimum wage and supporting collective bargaining. “Having said all this, ‘Why aren’t I 50 points ahead?’ you might ask?” Clinton said. “Well, the choice...
  • Jewish Support for Clinton Drops in NY

    09/21/2016 12:52:07 AM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 21 replies
    Jewish Political Updates ^ | September 20, 2016 | Joyce Chu
    A new poll shows Clinton’s favorability has recently dipped among Jewish voters in New York, although she still has an overall lead in the community and in the state. The study conducted last week by Siena College Research Institute showed Clinton’s lead sliding from 51 percent in August to 45 percent, while Trump’s support grew from 25 percent to 31 percent. Although Jews represent a small percentage of the U.S. population, according to JNS, over 90 percent of Jews will be voting—significantly higher than the 74 percent of Americans who are projected to vote. This makes the Jewish vote especially...
  • Republican Voters Are Unifying Behind Donald Trump

    09/20/2016 8:57:30 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 29 replies
    The Huffington Post ^ | September 20, 2016 | Janie Velencia, associate polling editor
    Republican support for Donald Trump is at an all-time high, with GOP voters now just as unified behind Trump as Democrats are behind Hillary Clinton, according to the HuffPost Pollster polling average. Polls have shown a tightening race in recent weeks, leaving Democrats on edge and concerned that Clinton is losing the comfortable lead she held over the summer. There’s data to back up Democrats’ hand-wringing. Republican voters who had previously withheld their support for Trump have come around recently. Trump has managed to gain 6 percentage points among Republicans since mid-August, and he’s on an upward trend, according to...
  • Trump is doing better with Hispanics than you think

    09/20/2016 8:26:58 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 8 replies
    The Hill ^ | September 20, 2016 | Niall Stanage
    Donald Trump is performing about as well with Hispanic voters as GOP nominee Mitt Romney did in 2012, according to opinion polls — something that unsettles Democrats and surprises even some Republicans. Skeptics had suggested that Trump would suffer a blowout among Hispanics, given that his rhetoric, on illegal immigration in particular, has been controversial. Trump’s promise to build a wall on the southern U.S. border and force Mexico to pay for it is perhaps the best known of his campaign pledges. And at his campaign launch in June 2015, he said people coming into the country illegally were “rapists.”...
  • Clinton campaign memo to donors: Don’t panic

    09/20/2016 6:37:17 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 42 replies
    Hot Air ^ | September 20, 2016 | Ed Morrissey
    Team Hillary has 49 days until Election Day to clinch what should be an easy victory. After Donald Trump’s August swoon, Hillary Clinton should have been able to coast to November 8th. Instead she has apparently stumbled back into a virtual tie, and Electoral College maps now make the race look like a dead heat with the first presidential debate on the near horizon. With allies and donors getting restive over her inability to close the deal, the Clinton campaign sent out a memo with one main message — don’t panic. Greg Sargent got a look at the Robby Mook...
  • New Poll Has Trump Tied In...Maine?

    09/20/2016 4:55:18 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 36 replies
    Townhall ^ | September 20, 2016 | Christine Rousselle
    "Yeah, I think Maine will be a toss-up state this year," said nobody ever.* As if anyone needed proof that the 2016 election is absolutely bizarre, please see this new Maine People's Resource Center (a liberal think tank) poll that has Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton tied with 37 percent of the vote each. This is a slight improvement from a poll from last week that had Trump within the margin of error behind Clinton. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson polled at 11 percent, and Green candidate Jill Stein came in at five. In Maine's 2nd congressional district, Trump has a...
  • It's down to New Hampshire if this trend continues

    09/20/2016 1:41:31 PM PDT · by Sybeck1 · 63 replies
    I've just started looking at 538 for a couple of weeks now. This is the highest chance of winning Trump has gone since I have been looking at it. He's up 2% since this morning. A lot can change but little New Hampshire is the highest non Trump state but it is up also. Looking at the snake graph at the bottom little NH with the other states and we would be saying President Trump with right over 270 electoral votes. The establishment has got to go scorched earth now.
  • Trump wins more black voters: Poll shows attracting support of more African Americans

    09/19/2016 4:04:27 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 28 replies
    The London Daily Mail ^ | September 19, 2016 | Ariel Zilber and Nikki Schwab
    LA Times/USC survey indicates that Trump's support among blacks has grown from 3.1 percent to 19.6 percent in less than two weeksClinton's backing among African Americans has dropped from 90.4 percent on September 10 to just 71.4 percent Pollster says that the numbers began to shift after questions about Clinton's health and stamina arose on September 11 Other polls show tight race between Trump and Clinton in key battleground states....
  • Polls: Trump ONE STATE From Being President

    09/19/2016 2:29:17 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 43 replies
    The Daily Wire ^ | September 18, 2016 | Ben Shapiro
    There was a time when Hillary Clinton’s team believed she would win every swing state, many by double digits. That time has passed. According to today’s Washington Post, the Clinton team is now “pessimistic” about holding Iowa and Ohio, and they believe Florida and North Carolina will be close. Right now, the latest polls have Donald Trump ahead in all four states. If he were to win those four states, as well as Nevada, he would be one state away from winning the presidency. Here are the remaining battleground states and where they stand....
  • Trump chips away at Clinton Minnesota advantage; Poll follows national trend of narrower race

    09/19/2016 12:21:17 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 22 replies
    The Detroit Lakes Online ^ | September 19, 2016 | Don Davis
    ST. PAUL—A new Minnesota Poll shows Donald Trump closing Hilary Clinton's lead in the state, which mirrors national polls showing the presidential race tightening. The Star Tribune's Minnesota Poll indicates Clinton would receive 44 percent of the vote and Trump 38 percent if the election were held now. North Dakota native Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate and former New Mexico governor, received 12 percent support, although more than a quarter of those surveyed said they did not know who he is. Democrat Clinton's strongest support came in the heavily Democratic areas of Minneapolis and St. Paul, where she held a...
  • Donald Trump Could Win This Blue State in November

    09/19/2016 11:36:41 AM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 13 replies
    Charisma News ^ | September 19, 2016
    Yesterday, we made the case that Donald Trump could win Michigan, despite the fact that no Republican candidate for resident has won in the Wolverine State since 1988. Today, two more items have surfaced confirming Trump's surge in the union-heavy traditionally Blue state: the announcement that 100 Syrian and Iraqi refugees would be placed in troubled and nearly bankrupt Flint, Michigan, without consultation with or the consent of local authorities, and the release of a Detroit Free Press poll showing that 53 percent of the Great Lake State's voters oppose settling more refugees in the hard-pressed state. According to this...
  • PPD Daily: Trump 45.4 Cankles 40.1 (Trump 5.3)

    09/19/2016 10:13:01 AM PDT · by LS · 11 replies
    Trump up .1 from yesterday, Cankles rebounds by .3
  • Panic Mode: LAT Poll Shows Donald Trump Skyrocketing as Hillary Clinton Falters in Black Community

    09/18/2016 11:30:05 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 47 replies
    Breitbart ^ | September 18, 2016 | Neil W. McCabe
    Republican Donald J. Trump has the support of 20 percent of the African-American vote in Sunday’s “Daybreak Poll” by the University of Southern California and The Los Angeles Times. Trump’s Democratic opponent Hillary R. Clinton is the choice of 71 percent of black voters. For the week after Trump’s Aug. 16 speech on the status of African-Americans in America in West Bend, Wisconsin, the Republican had support in the Daybreak Poll between 13 percent and 15 percent....
  • Trump’s Polling “Surge” Is Turning Into A “Wave”

    09/18/2016 6:46:43 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 39 replies
    The Daily Caller ^ | September 16, 2016 | Stewart Lawrence
    Two weeks ago, some pundits began talking about a Trump “surge.” Suddenly, that surge is looking like a full-fledged “wave.” In one battleground after another, the billionaire real estate mogul is opening up a lead over Hillary Clinton – or making that state’s race competitive again. He’s also beating Clinton in several of the latest national polls. Mainstream pundits are reeling from the shock. Take Ohio. Three straight polls now find Trump with a solid single-digit lead. Trump has closed the gap with women to low single-digits while preserving his robust double-digit lead among men. And Trump’s leading among college-educated...
  • Clinton Campaign In Crisis Over Plunging Support Among Younger Voters

    09/18/2016 3:57:25 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 55 replies
    Counter Currents ^ | September 18, 2016 | Zaida Green
    The campaign of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton is responding to poll numbers and other indications of declining support among younger voters by deploying its most prominent surrogates to college campuses. The moves come a day after two national surveys, one conducted by Quinnipiac University and the other by CBS News and the New York Times, found that more than a third of voters under the age of 30 plan to vote for third-party presidential candidates. Clinton is widely despised, especially by young people. According to the Quinnipiac University poll, Clinton has the support of just 31 percent of voters...
  • New poll shows Clinton and Trump nearly tied in Michigan

    09/17/2016 4:34:16 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 31 replies
    The Detroit Free Press | September 16, 2016 | Todd Spangler
    Link only due to copyright issues: http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/09/15/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-michigan-poll/90381296/
  • Fox NH: Clinton 42, Trump 41

    09/17/2016 3:19:29 PM PDT · by LS · 26 replies
    Fox News per Twitter | 9/17/2016
    Cankles up only one in state where Bush in 2000 last Republican to win = another sign of impending tsunami.
  • How Hillary’s pneumonia has left her campaign ailing less than two months before Election Day

    09/17/2016 2:12:48 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 43 replies
    The New York Daily News ^ | September 17, 2016 | Adam Edelman
    Hillary's pneumonia could end up sickening her entire presidential bid, politicos are warning. Clinton's forced disclosure of her diagnosis after a fainting episode on Sept. 11 not only reinforced fears of her campaign's secrecy and dishonesty, but it also came at the exact same time Donald Trump suddenly decided to run a more traditional campaign. And if voter attitudes continue to change as quickly as they already have, according to polls, the Clinton camp could be facing a negative prognosis. "There can be little doubt that the presidential race has not only tightened, but there are indications that Donald Trump...
  • Trump, Clinton now running close in Electoral College

    09/17/2016 1:24:20 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 42 replies
    The Washington Examiner ^ | September 17, 2016 | Joseph Lawler
    Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are running close in the Electoral College, according to a new analysis released Saturday. A Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation analysis based on a weekly tracking poll in all 50 states shows that the two candidates are nearly even, with the Republican Trump projected to win the key swing state of Florida. Clinton still has a slight edge in the comparison, but the race has tightened significantly in recent weeks, with several battleground states better contested by Trump. The analysis is based on a weekly tracking poll of more than 15,000 Americans....
  • Interview with Decius--author of the famous Flight 93 Election essay!

    09/17/2016 10:23:03 AM PDT · by conservativecass · 9 replies
    American Greatness ^ | September 17, 2016 | Decius
    "The pseudonymous Publius Decius Mus has angered and mystified his critics with his bracing assessment of our political moment in his essay, “The Flight 93 Election,” which—along with the follow-up essay—quickly went viral and generated commentary from left and right. With so many questions and so much controversy swirling around his ideas, American Greatness spoke with Decius this week about the pursuit of greater clarity in thinking through the politics of our time."
  • Weird and Wild Stuff: Why Democrats should be worried

    09/16/2016 9:53:15 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 18 replies
    The Washington Free Beacon ^ | September 16, 2016 | Matthew Continetti, editor-in-chief
    “This shouldn’t be close, but it’s close,” President Obama told the audience at a fundraiser this week in New York. “The presidential race, we should win. But Donald Trump got the nomination, so weird stuff happens.” How weird? The president’s approval rating is at 51 percent, unemployment is at 4.9 percent, incomes rose in 2015, Democrats lead the generic ballot, and the Republican presidential nominee is historically unpopular. Yet Donald Trump is closing in on Hillary Clinton, narrowing her lead to two points in the Real Clear Politics average. The battleground states are tight as well. The odds favor Clinton....
  • Reuters Poll: Trump Likely to Win Florida

    09/16/2016 8:26:44 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 30 replies
    NewsMax ^ | September 16, 2016
    An election analysis conducted in the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project shows that the race has tightened considerably over the past few weeks, with Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump projected to win Florida, an essential battleground state, if the election were held today. The project, which is based on a weekly tracking poll of more than 15,000 Americans, shows that the 2016 presidential race could end in a photo finish on Nov. 8, with the major-party candidates running nearly even in the Electoral College, the body that ultimately selects the president. The States of the Nation project, which delivers...
  • Politico: Trump has broken Hillary’s Electoral College lock

    09/16/2016 3:25:05 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 28 replies
    Hot Air ^ | September 16, 2016 | Ed Morrissey
    For now, anyway. A month ago, analysts thought Hillary Clinton had enough of a lead in the Electoral College that she could coast to the finish line. She’s coasted ever since, and that has finally caught up to her — and so has Donald Trump. Politico polling analyst Stephen Shepard writes that current polling would give Trump 266 electoral votes, with any number of states available to give him the majority: Just six weeks ago, Hillary Clinton’s advantage in the Electoral College looked insurmountable. Now, based on the latest round of public polls, it’s a different story. If the election...
  • New Poll: Trump Leading Clinton In Nevada

    09/16/2016 11:47:12 AM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 14 replies
    KUNR-FM ^ | September 16, 2016 | Anh Gray
    In the battleground state of Nevada, Republican Donald Trump is now slightly leading Democrat Hillary Clinton in the race to the White House. That’s according to a new poll by Monmouth University. Our reporter Anh Gray has the details.(AUDIO-AT-LINK) Trump leads Clinton 44 to 42 percent and continues to be ahead with mostly white and male voters. Seth Richardson is a political reporter with the Reno Gazette-Journal. “It’s within the margins of error, but it shows what we’ve seen from previous polls over the last few weeks that Nevada is really, really close. I can’t stress enough how close it...
  • 'The Entire Election Could Boil Down To Pennsylvania,' New York Times Says

    09/16/2016 11:23:09 AM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 51 replies
    Patch ^ | September 16, 2016 | Kara Seymour
    Think your one vote doesn't really matter? According to experts, it will — a lot. Hey Pennsylvania voters: you're important. Like, really important. It's no secret Pennsylvania is an extremely-coveted battleground state for both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump this fall. But some experts are now predicting the entire 2016 presidential election could essentially boil down to how we vote here in the Keystone State. Is that enough pressure for you? (By the way, the deadline to register to vote is Oct. 11.) In a piece published Friday by the New York Times, expert David Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft...
  • Clinton stumbling in Democrat-friendly Michigan

    09/16/2016 9:31:50 AM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 22 replies
    The Fresno Bee ^ | September 16, 2016 | David Lightman
    Hillary Clinton’s lead in Michigan, regarded as a strong state for the Democratic nominee, is slipping. Clinton is ahead of Donald Trump, 38-35 percent, in a new Detroit Free Press/WXYZ poll. Michigan has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992. Libertarian Gary Johnson had 10 percent support, while the Green Party’s Jill Stein had 4 percent. Trump’s gains have included white voters and men. Clinton was ahead by 2 last month while Trump now is ahead by 8. Clinton had a slight edge among men in August, but Trump is now up 5. Her backing in union households was...
  • Ohio may decide who the next president is—and right now, it’s pointing to Trump

    09/15/2016 10:07:38 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 6 replies
    CNBC ^ | September 15, 2016 | Jake Novak
    If history is any guide, this election could come down to one state: Ohio. You can almost bet that whoever wins the Buckeye State — Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton — will win the White House. The reason isn't Ohio's 18 electoral votes — plenty of battleground states like Florida and Pennsylvania are worth more. And it isn't because Ohio is a so-called "blue collar" state, because Ohio is harder to define in any singular way. In fact, it's Ohio's incredibly diverse demographic, economic, and geographic makeup that makes it matter so much in elections. I learned that 20 years...
  • Time to Face It: Trump Really Could Win This

    09/15/2016 1:24:36 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 66 replies
    Politico Magazine ^ | September 14, 2016 | Rich Lowry
    If Democrats are starting to panic, they should. What else do they have to throw at him? If you aren’t seriously contemplating the biggest black swan event in American electoral history, you aren’t paying attention. Fifteen months ago, Donald Trump was a reality-TV star with a spotty business record and a weird penchant for proclaiming he was on the verge of running for president. Now, he’s perhaps a few big breaks and a couple of sterling debate performances away from being elected 45th president of the United States. Trump has no experience in elected office, and unlike past nonpoliticians elected...
  • Trump Leads Nation; AR, GA, MO Remain Red; CO Leaning Trump; Pneumonia Appears to Be Hurting

    09/15/2016 12:51:29 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 15 replies
    Emerson Polling ^ | September 15, 2016 | Professor Spencer Kimball
    Results at link.
  • Trump Has 5-Point Lead in Bloomberg Poll of Battleground Ohio

    09/15/2016 12:35:41 PM PDT · by 2ndDivisionVet · 6 replies
    Bloomberg Politics | September 14, 2016 | John McCormick and Mark Niquette
    Link only due to copyright issues: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-09-14/ohio-poll
  • NATE SILVER: Donald Trump's odds of winning are at their highest point in weeks

    Renowned statistician Nate Silver's election forecast on Wednesday gave Donald Trump his best odds of winning since late July. In Silver's "polls-plus" model, the Republican nominee had a 34.7% chance of winning in November. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton was sitting at a 65.3% chance of victory. But the model showed the Electoral College projection tightening significantly. Silver's model had Trump as more likely to win Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio, the latter of which has voted in step with the nation in every election since 1964. Clinton, in Silver's model, held a 294.2 to 243.6 edge in the Electoral...
  • Summary of Poll Activity Today With Some Gems

    09/14/2016 7:30:30 PM PDT · by LS · 45 replies
    self | 9/14/ | LS
    So much polling news today that it's really not possible to keep track of thread by thread. National polls were USC Trump 46.7 Cankles 42 Trump +4.7 (Trump is nearing his all time high in this of 47) PPD: Trump 45.1, Cankles 41, Trump +4.1 CO: Ipsos: Trump 43 Cankles 41 Trump +2 OH: Bloomberg, 4-way Trump +5 (44-39) 2-way Trump +5 (48-43) CNN: likely voters, 4-way Trump 44 Cankles 39 Trump +5 (This was a killer. CNN was even quoting Quinnipiac to avoid quoting their own poll.) FL: CNN 4-way likely voters Trump 47 Cankles 44 In the two...