Free Republic

Is Rasmussen becoming the most incapable pollster next to American Research? Maybe. Just this morning, Rasmussen released a poll showing Texas GOP Senator John Cornyn ahead of his Democrat challenger by only 3 points. Possible? Sure. Likely? Not. Rasmussen made a similar mistake just last month in the Louisiana Senate race between incumbent Mary Landrieu and GOP State Treasurer John Kennedy. On April 14, Southern Media and Opinion Research correctly found Landrieu leading Kennedy by 12 points. That same morning Rasmussen and friends reported that Landrieu had a lead of 55 to 39. But on April 20, the Times Picayune...

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows John McCain leading both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton by an identical margin of 48% to 43%. While the topline results are the same, there are important differences in the way those results are obtained. Clinton does better among Democrats than Obama while Obama does better among unaffiliated voters. Among those not affiliated with either major party, McCain leads Obama by five and Clinton by sixteen. Daily tracking results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time (see recent daily general election results). In the race for the Democratic Presidential...

The foul odor of media-in-the-can-for-McCain and the Rethugs hangs over the 2008 campaign. McCain sez: It's fine with me if we're in Iraq for 100 years. The media sez: He didn't say that! The Washington Post charges Democrats are "distorting" McCain by saying, well, that he said what he said. The New York Times says Democrats are misharacterizing and distorting McCain, by saying, well, that he said what he said. Again, the facts the media is trying so hard to ignore: McCain said he'd be fine if we stayed in Iraq for 100 years. After all, he said (you can...

January 9, 2008 WASHINGTON, D.C. — Monday, Stephen Stone, CEO of Alan Keyes for President, met with Republican National Committee Chairman Mike Duncan to discuss "evidence of deception by the Iowa Republican Party with regard to the recent caucuses." Stone delivered a letter that described the campaign's allegations against Iowa GOP officials. According to Stone, the state party's behavior in the caucuses "disenfranchises voters" and appears to have "violated the election laws." Among the facts outlined by Stone: State party leaders gave precinct chairs a "suggested ballot" of presidential candidates that was used to guide caucus-goers in the nominating and...

John McCain is neither the inevitable Republican Nominee nor as electable as current polling data suggests for three reasons 1) the mainstream media will turn their backs on McCain as soon as he is the nominee, 2) so-called independents and moderates will not show up as strongly for McCain in the general election as in the primary, 3) McCain cannot unify the party because many important conservatives will not rally around him, and 4) McCain-Feingold will literally seal his fate because conservatives will not outlay cash in the general election for McCain. The mainstream media will turn against Senator McCain...

The Minnesota Public Radio News/Humphrey Institute Poll indicates DFL Senate candidate Al Franken poses more of a re-election threat to Republican Sen. Norm Coleman than any of the other DFL candidates. The poll indicates that if the election were today Coleman and Franken would be in a statistical dead heat. The poll took the pulse of 917 Minnesota residents over a one- week period that ended Sunday. It shows Coleman 5 points ahead of DFLer Mike Ciresi, and gives Coleman double-digit leads over Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer and Jim Cohen who dropped out of the race Friday. University of Minnesota Humphrey Institute...

Dear RNC: I am very concerned about the direction toward which it appears that the Republican Party is headed. In the words of Presidential hopeful John McCain, “they voted us in to change government, and the government changed us.” John McCain’s own admission of how he failed in his duty as Senator, along with the rest of our fellow Republicans who were voted out of office in 2006, to make the changes that he promised is very telling. More specifically, his admission raises suspicion as to whether he will fulfill his current promises, which not only mirror the past promises...

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, polling a distant fourth in the upcoming Florida primaries, continued to attack former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, while offering implicit support for his other rival, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in his appearance on "Fox News Sunday." When asked to take sides on a dispute between Romney and McCain over whether the former Massachusetts governor called for a timetable for withdrawal in Iraq last April, Huckabee sided squarely with McCain. “Dishonest? I’ve never seen John McCain say something that is just blatantly untrue,” Huckabee said. Huckabee later praised McCain, saying “we have a civil approach to...

This is a weird article. I was never one who believed that politicians were - on the whole - smart enough to pull off something like this. I never thought the Democrats would pull Hillary in as the Party's savior in 2004. And I'm skeptical of what Steven Stark writes in the above-linked piece. What do you guys think? Is this author on to something, or is he certifiable? If McCain loses in Florida, the Republicans may well be headed to a deadlocked race and convention. And history teaches us that the likeliest candidate to emerge in that scenario is...

From: Gabrielle S. Avedian on behalf of Friends of Fred Thompson < Gabrielle.Avedian> Date: Jan 21, 2008 1:51 PM Subject: URGENT: Email campaign for Fred! To: “Gabrielle S. Avedian on behalf of Friends of Fred Thompson” < Gabrielle.Avedian> Hey all, First, I want to thank each and every one of you for the fantastic job of calling you’ve been doing to South Carolina all week. It has been a long, hard week and I know you have really sacrificed for this campaign. I truly appreciate all you’ve done and I know Fred and Jeri appreciate it also. BECAUSE OF YOU,...

Fred Thompson's political career might very well be over tomorrow. If so, take this post as a postmortem of his candidacy. It is obvious that Senator Thompson has squandered a great deal of good will during the interminable run up to the announcement of his candidacy and his less than stellar performance in the period September through mid-December. The easy analysis is that Thompson was lazy but I don't think it was laziness. I think it was a misguided attempt to run an issues oriented campaign. Thompson's Socratic style of addressing those early crowds was a good way to discuss...

Oh boy one has to believe that Huckabee will be getting some blow-back from this. These push polls have even brought out the South Carolina Attorney General to make this statement: “Last evening the Associated Press reported that that an out-of-state special interest group, Common Sense Issues, had launched a massive push polling effort disparaging John McCain and other candidates for president. In their push poll, Common Sense Issues makes several misleading claims regarding John McCain’s record.“Allow me to set the record straight. In the U.S. Senate, John McCain has been an unwavering voice for the rights of the unborn....

As we move on to South Carolina team Thompson is doing something a little different and fun. They are putting up a fun set of videos from their tour down there. They are getting video snapshots of folks who have flipped to Fred from other Candidates. Here is Riley, who flipped from Romney to Fred. Karen flips from Romney to Fred: Ann flips from Huckabee to Thompson: Jason goes from Romney to Fred: Well you get the idea. There is plenty more here. Meanwhile Fred layed the smackdown on the field on Fox News last night. So much so that...

epublicans gear up for Michigan Getty Image removed Michigan could be make-or-break for Mitt Romney, analysts say Voters in the US state of Michigan are gearing up for the Republican primary on Tuesday in the next stage of the race for the White House.Polls suggest a very close battle between Arizona senator John McCain and local boy Mitt Romney. The Democratic contest has been weakened because Michigan chose to hold its vote early and the party barred its delegates from the final convention. Analysts say Michigan's fragile economy is the main issue. High unemployment Some commentators say this could be...

The long awaited endorsement from BackSpin is out: Fred Dalton Thompson. Every primary and caucus voter should watch Fred's message to Iowa voters: Rudy, Romney, and Huckabee all have their weaknesses, and their strengths, but the most important quality in a candidate is going to be the ability to communicate conservative principles. We as Republicans have to stop trying to win elections 'on the cheap.' For too many years, we have taken the lazy road to campaigning. We try to sell voters on tax cuts, because that's an easy sell, and then we try to offer all the candy that...

At 9:00 pm ET Fox News will broadcast the Republican Presidential debate from Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. As usual, I’ll be liveblogging it on the Fred File. Hope to see you then.

I haven't been a blogger since last spring. But I am still active in several conservative forums and I am bringing you some information that I think only grassroots groups, bloggers, and talk radio can do anything about. Regardless of your political affiliation, or your choice of candidate, it should be somewhat chilling to realize how much the media is manipulating campaign information and access. I don't write this to whine "it's not fair!", but to make you aware that there is a real problem. I've tried to handle this through official channels (ie: the SC GOP, Fox News, and...

Welcome to the Wyoming Republican Party Calendar. This page is maintained to the best of our ability, however the WYGOP does not guarantee the information contained herein has not changed. Please use the contact information on events to verify times, dates and places. Event: Weston County Convention Day: Saturday, January 05, 2008 Time: 8:30 AM ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Event: Albany County Convention Day: Saturday, January 05, 2008 Time: 8:00 AM ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Event: Goshen County Convention Day: Saturday, January 05, 2008 Time: 9:00 AM ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Event: Crook County Convention Day: Saturday, January 05, 2008 Time: 2:00 PM ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Event: Campbell County Convention Day:...

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is already attacking the politician who appears to be his chief rival in New Hampshire, Arizona Sen. John McCain. On MSNBC's Morning Joe, Romney attempted to spin the Iowa caucuses as a defeat for John McCain, lumping McCain with Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton as the big losers. "The Washington insiders are being rejected," Romney said. Romney placed a distant second to former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. McCain and Fred Thompson were in a virtual tie for third. Romney continued to say that placing ahead of big-name candidates Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, and McCain in Iowa...

I've been asked a lot lately about the Iowa Caucus process. So, I decided to do a small primer of some basic facts about it for those who might like to learn a bit more. What is a caucus? * The word caucus is a North American Indian word, thought to be of Algonquin origin, meaning a gathering of the ruling tribal chiefs. The modern definition describes caucuses as a process of political party members gathering to make policy decisions and to select candidates. When is the 2008 Iowa Caucus? * The 2008 Iowa Caucus will be held January 3,...

It looks like the Politico website has another fascinating scoop full of un-substantiated and un-named sources. That is that John McCain's campaign is literally hanging by a thread. He is low on money and fallen to a fourth place tie with Ron Paul in Iowa. Sources (unnamed) say that a McCain shellacking in Iowa will likely drop him out of the running in New Hampshire where is organization is running on fumes. In Iowa McCain has gone from 13% and high hopes of pulling a surprise to falling to 10% and a tie with a surging Ron Paul. UPDATE: ARG...

Johnny Dollar’s got the video of that irascible Ed Rollins shooting off his mouth. Nothing serious. Usually when Rollins shoots off his mouth he finds himself in the unemployment line or wounding the candidate he alleges to support with friendly fire. The Man Who Helped Reagan Win 49 States ™ indeed. Yea. Take “Reagan” out of that bio and what’s left of Vallejo’s finest? Ed Rollins - guiding the gay, yet somehow married to Arianna, Michael Huffington to Senate defeat? The mastermind behind billionaire Ross Perot’s Presidency? Claiming that he bribed black ministers to suppress the black vote to help...

Well, that's the rumor from Zogby polling. Musing on the Thompson campaign, there was an interesting post earlier this week by Paul Marks at Samizdata: "Fred Thompson: Too Sane to Be President?" Marks writes that the media equates a passion for campaigning with a passion for governing and serving one's country -- I'd note that "Campaign Carl" Cameron of Fox News has been particularly derisive of Thompson in this regard -- but that they're actually two different things. Marks: "But what sort of person is passionate about the political process? Not getting things done - but the process of gaining...

Ok, yeah I have small children. But that’s beside the point. I think Fred Thompson has a strong shot at 2nd place in Iowa. I don’t want to get my hopes up too high because it is more likely that he will finish 3rd. But if, as I am getting from the news coverage, this McCain, Huckabee, Romney food fight on the airwaves in Iowa is souring voters to those candidates, Fred Thompson could be the beneficiary of that sentiment. Going negative in Iowa has always carried risks and Iowa is the place where dark horses rise to the top....

A recent Wealthy Dentist survey asked dentists who they would like to see win the upcoming US presidential election. Two out of three dentists responding to this survey said they would rather see a Republican in the Oval Office than a Democrat. Among the dentists surveyed, the Republican favorite was Mitt Romney, while Democrats prefer Hillary Clinton. Though this poll only surveyed dentists, the implications reach beyond the profession of dentistry. Dentists see over 30 million Americans each month, allowing them to both hear and influence people's opinions on a wide range of topics. Among the 71% of dentists who...

This morning Fox and Friends concentrated on three candidates in relation the Iowa caucuses on Thursday night: the two lead candidates in the polls, Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney - and John McCain... this was in spite of the fact that Senator McCain is not in Iowa (he is in New Hampshire) and that Fred Thompson is ahead of John McCain is most of Iowa polls. This is a part of pattern: last night Fred Thompson was on Fox News Sunday, but in the panel discussion, later in the show, the panellists ignored Fred Thompson. He is attacked by people,...

David Yepsen has a horrifically bad column in the Sunday Des Moines Register. In it, he distills each candidate down to the usual cliches of the leftist/"centrist" newspaper agenda: Mike Huckabee The former Arkansas governor and Baptist minister has soared in the GOP race following his second-place finish in the Iowa Republican straw poll in August. He has rallied party social and religious conservatives as well as supporters of a big national sales tax to replace the income tax. He's a witty speaker and an affable politician whose criticisms of the nation's economic policies sound a lot like the populist...

Former Sen. Fred Thompson, R-Tenn, accused some of my colleagues of "journalistic malpractice" just now on Fox News Sunday. He's referring to coverage implying that Thompson said he's "not particularly interested in running for president," like this story. As our awesome ABC News off-air reporter with the Thompson campaign advised us last night, and as Jim Geraghty at National Review points out that may not be the fairest characterization of Thompson's complete remarks. The larger point Thompson seems to have been trying to make is that he's not interested in the process of running for president, but he wants to...

Fred Thompson has picked up endorsements from three state representatives - Kraig Paulsen of Cedar Rapids, Jeff Kaufmann of Wilton and Jamie Van Fossen of Davenport -- bringing his total to six. Mitt Romney still has a prohibitive lead with 16, followed by John McCain with eight. (Table at link)

This is to all conservatives: Who's yer candidate? Keep in mind, I am talking to conservative Democrats, and to conservative Republicans. On the Democrat side, there are none. All either talk liberal, or have a long liberal history. On the Republican side, there are two, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. The others talk conservative, but their entire public life histories are vigorous, flaming liberal. Remember, once in office, all promises are forgotten, and the winner reverts to type. Of the two, Fred Thompson has the best chance of winning. If you examine his record in the Senate, he has always...

After reading this question that was posed to Fred Thompson and his answer, I can't help but think it's a shame that he's not doing better in the campaign (h/t Instapundit): AKD: What will you do for the farmers of Bremer County? FT: (laughs) AKD: You knew this was coming, right? FT: I would continue to enjoy the fruits of their labor. I’ve been looking all over Iowa for a bad steak and I can’t find it. Been trying my best. It’s not a matter of what I would do for the farmers. Farmers are not looking for a president...

Almost as I'd thought. The endorsement of Rep. King has begun having an impact in the Iowa poll numbers and the Thompson campaign is on the move according to this latest Strategic Vision poll. - Huckabee -31% - Romney - 25% - Thompson - 16% The anomaly in this poll right now is Huckabee (another post on that later) who when this poll was taken was at 31%. I have not heard the entire show, however the internet is abuzz with Rush's cremation of Huckabee (and for good reason...again more on that later). Huckabee's numbers are going to plummet down...

Yesterday the news was full of a new poll showing Mitt Romney coming from nowhere to tie Rudy Giuliani for first place among Republicans nationally. The surprising NBC/Wall Street Journal poll,conducted between Dec. 14 and Dec. 16, showed Romney and Giuliani with 20% each, Huckabee with 17%, and the resurgent John McCain with 14%. Combine that with an Insider Advantage poll taken on Dec. 16 and Dec 17 showing Romney recapturing the lead in Iowa,with 28% to Huckabee's 25, and a Rasmussen Poll taken on Dec. 17, showing Huckabee's Iowa lead over Romney cut to only one per cent, and...

Seven major pollsters issued new national numbers for mid-December, after the last Republican debate in Iowa, which was hosted by the hostile Des Moines Register which is for the record, endorsing the Hillary Clinton campaign. An overall average of these seven polls is below. With Fred Thompson running 5th with only 11.3% support nationally, can Thompson really win the RNC nomination and if so, how? Can Fred Thompson Surge? The "front-runners:" Mayor Giuliani has been running the longest. He has peaked in the 20’s several times now, only to slide in the polls immediately after. He should be running strongest...

SoCalPundit.com endorsed Fred Thompson for the Republican nomination not because he was the candidate raising the most money or the candidate with the most name recognition (though in a national election I think he would) but because he is the true conservative candidate in the GOP field. All due respect to Alan Keyes of course. After a shaky start to a late campaign, it looked like Fred was dead in the water. But a Google search for the candidate today reveals some indication that Fred is catching up in Iowa and other early primary states where Fred must make a...

It just could happen: “But after a sluggish start, Thompson has sensed an opening in Iowa, and he’s moving decisively to exploit it. The opening arises from a combination of Romney’s changes of position on social issues and Huckabee’s stumbles on foreign-policy questions and immigration. After his winning performance in the Des Moines Register’s debate, Thompson has embarked on a lengthy bus tour of the state. During these final days, his campaign says he’ll hold events in 50 communities and will visit 54 of the 99 counties. On Monday, he picked up the surprise endorsement of Congressman Steve King. Of...

Stick a fork in him: With fewer than 20 days until the Iowa caucuses, three men in the Republican Party stand to get their tickets punched out of the Hawkeye State. While everything is still in flux, those likely winners will be Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson. Notably missing out on Iowa’s political rocket fuel is national frontrunner Rudy Giuliani. While most political insiders and pundits have known for months that Giuliani had no plans to compete in Iowa, the general American electorate probably does not. Known to not pay attention to the early political pontificating, the average...

Greencastle, Ind. - "Four years ago in this cycle there was a front-runner and his name was Howard Dean," recalls Jeri Kehn Thompson, in an interview with Kentucky's Lexington Herald-Leader. "John Kerry was running about eighth. You can ask President Dean how things went in Iowa." Thompson, a 1988 graduate of DePauw University, is the wife of Republican presidential hopeful Fred Thompson, who is currently running third among GOP candidates in an Iowa poll. She was in Louisville campaigning for her husband yesterday. The article notes that Jeri Thompson returned home to Washington immediately following her Kentucky stop so she...

That's right Huckbots, while Brian Pickrell does not rule out a Huckabee win, he claims that the race is really between Fred and Mitt. As a supporter of Mr. Thompson, I'll live with Mitt as well. According to Pickrell... I find it hard to believe that Huckabee is actually leading in the polls here in Iowa. Every person I spoke with told me that they’re supporting Romney or Thompson and that everyone they knew or worked with (who are also Republicans) feels the same way. None of them have even considered Huckabee as a serious choice. It could be a...

Continuing in the vein of thought we’ve been running with on the last few campaign pieces we’ve published, Compete.com today published a study showing the levels of engagement each candidate in the race was achieving with the various presences each candidate has not only at their own campaign websites, but the individual social media presences scattered across the web as well. Who was the big winner? I’ll give you a hint: his initials start with Ron Paul. As it turns out, Ron Qaeda’s efforts to annoy America into paying attention to their candidate worked like a charm. Chances are, if...

State Sen. Eric Johnson was among the first prominent Georgians to jump on the Fred Thompson for President bandwagon. The Savannah Republican helped persuade dozens of state lawmakers to endorse the former Tennessee senator earlier this year. But he remained relatively quiet after Thompson officially entered the GOP race this summer. Until last week, that is. That was when Thompson slipped to fifth place in one national poll after doing only a little better in other recent ones. Earlier, he'd led in one national poll and stayed near the front of the pack in others. Against that backdrop, Johnson weighed...

From the day in June when I interviewed the man until this very morning, Fred Thompson has caused me to scratch my head in puzzlement and disappointment. On the one hand, Thompson displays energy, intiative, and principle in all matters of policy. He has forthrightly and uapologetically opposed Roe, arguing that abortion law should be returned to the states. He’s solid on health care. Has has displayed more courage and honesty in addressing the need for entitlement reform than all the other Republican candidates combined. In his insistence on the need to achieve victory in Iraq and prevent Iran from...

Ah jeez: Mike Huckabee has vaulted from nowhere into second place in the Republican presidential race, riding a burst of support from evangelicals, Southerners and conservatives, a poll showed Friday. The upsurge by the former Arkansas governor has come largely at the expense of Fred Thompson, according to the national survey by The Associated Press and Ipsos. Thompson has dropped after failing to galvanize the party's right-wing core as much as some had expected. Rudy Giuliani remains the front-runner, yet while his support long has been steady it shows signs of fraying. Huckabee's growing strength in the South has come...

Intrade 2008 Republican Presidential Nominee 2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI Rudy Giuliani to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 41.1 41.9 41.1 134720 -0.9 2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY Mitt Romney to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 21.2 21.7 21.8 103963 -0.2 2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE Mike Huckabee to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 18.1 18.4 18.2 74247 +0.1 2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN John McCain to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 7.5 7.8 8.1 157915 0 2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F) Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008 M 5.0 5.1 5.0 94954 0 2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL Ron Paul to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in...

If history matters to you, then voters should pick Democratic Sen. Hillary Clinton and Republican Fred Thompson as their parties' presidential nominees. That's because they are the choice of America's social studies teachers. In a miniconvention sponsored by Pearson, the education and media giant, Clinton, the former first lady viewed as the most experienced in the field, was first with 41.9 percent, followed by Sen. Barack Obama with 34 percent and John Edwards at 12.3 percent. On the GOP side, Thompson, the actor and former Watergate prober, won 23.2 percent, followed by Rudy Giuliani at 20.5 percent and surging Mike...

As I noted here, Fred Thompson’s supporters and campaign are missing golden opportunity after golden opportunity while they focus on tearing down other candidates instead of building Fred up. Fred continues to put forth a very conservative agenda and no one is hearing about it because Fredheads aren’t telling them. I’ll try to help them again, gratis. Take, for instance, Fred’s skepticism of the latest National Intelligence Estimate, the one that contradicts the idea that Iran is working on nuclear weapons. Republican presidential candidate Fred Thompson said Tuesday he’s skeptical of a new report that Iran halted its nuclear weapons...

Like noxious bugs swarming over a crumbling tenement, followers of Ron Paul have invaded the blogosphere. Their target is anyone who dares to criticize their hero. Bloggers have dealt with them in various ways. Some have tried banning them outright. Others allow readers to engage them in back-and-forth debates that can easily take a thread to several hundred responses. I used to find the Paulites annoying, but recently I had a revelation: Far from being scorned, Paul’s rabid fans should be welcomed and encouraged. We should do everything we can to make certain they keep pushing their man, sending him...

Among the top tier Republican candidates, Rush says that only Fred has been a consistent conservative. You have been given your marching orders. Now you know who to vote for. RUSH: …the genuine moderate as opposed to conservative aspects of three of the top-tier, four of the top-tier candidates were on full-fledged display last night. There was one candidate who did not display any moderateness or liberalism or have any of his past forays into those areas displayed, and that candidate was Fred Thompson. … …we have a campaign now where most of the candidates are not genuine conservatives. They...

It’s still early in the process, and a lot can happen in the next few weeks, but it’s getting increasingly difficult to see how Rudy Giuliani’s campaign survives a series of early (and humiliating) defeats. In Iowa, Giuliani has gone from first to third, and he’s not done dropping yet. In New Hampshire, Giuliani is either a distant second possibly even third. And then there’s South Carolina, where Giuliani was, up until fairly recently, hanging onto to a first-place lead. Not anymore. On the heels of polls showing Rudy dropping fast in New Hampshire and out of contention in Iowa,...

Lord knows I have blasted Fred Thompson a few times, but now he has followed his gutsy and philosophically solid Social Security plan and his on-target defense plan, and his hard-nosed immigration plan, with a tax-reform proposal that is deservedly earning plaudits from conservative experts. I repeat my contention that (apart from a certain Huckster) the Republican field this year is in many ways a font of riches rather than a big disappointment. There are at least four candidates whom I personally could support with serious enthusiasm, and another several (counting ones who already have dropped out) who I would...