Free Republic

If Sarah is flirting, I was seduced a long time ago! For everyone who doesn't want Romney, this is huge! It's only in the modern era that Presidential nominations have been locked up before most American voters even tuned in. So this year, for the nation, the Republican Primary is kind of a return to older times, when all Americans counted, not just the few power brokers. The race has been a very rich blue blood from New England ( where he would not carry one state in the general election ) and a group of three, Newt, Rick and...

Continuing an early trend in Washington's 2012 governor's race, a new Elway poll finds Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna with a 9-point lead over Democratic Congressman Jay Inslee. The poll, conducted last week, found 45 percent of respondents would "definitely" or "probably" vote for McKenna, compared with 36 percent for Inslee. Pollster Stuart Elway notes one "ominous" sign for Inslee in the poll data: the proportion of voters with a negative impression of him (22 percent) is nearly equal to those with a positive impression (28 percent). By contrast, McKenna has a 3 to 1 ratio of positive to negative...

If one doubted Sarah Palin wields great power by virtue of her charisma and persona, that notion was laid to rest during her speech at the CPAC convention when she had the overflow audience on their feet numerous times. None of the presidential candidates, least of all front-runner Mitt Romney, got anywhere near that warm of reception. Newt Gingrich, who delivered a classic speech filled with ideas, came closest. But Gingrich has faltered somewhat in his presidential run. Romney still won the CPAC straw poll, likely because he filled the venue with enough of his supporters to pull off a...

Mitt Romney may have won the straw poll but Sarah Palin won CPAC’s heart--electrifying the Conservative Political Action Conference with one of the most rousing and effective political speeches of recent years. Both winners managed to advance the cause of conservative unity and raised the prospects for a competitive and formidable Republican challenge to Barack Obama’s re-election. Romney’s win among conservative activists, especially combined with his simultaneous victory in the Maine caucuses completed on Saturday, will help to change the over-stated and misleading media narrative about Mitt’s supposed inability to connect with his party’s conservative base. After spending three days...

Point of Order No. 4,321,458: A recent study released by the Heritage Foundation states that the depedency index under President Obama has grown an astounding 23% during his reign er I mean presidency. In just a mere two years 67 million (yes that's MILLION) people are now relying on federal aid in one form or another. Investors.com explains "In 2010, for the first time ever, average spending on dependence programs per recipient exceeded the country's per-capita disposable income." The Left would have you believe that the reason behind this spike is mainly the crap economy, but WE'RE NOT BUYING IT....

Sure, Mitt Romney just had a huge win in Florida—but his favorability ratings have been sinking miserably since the New Year. Andrew Romano on why the GOP’s long primary race in 2012 won’t mirror the Dems’ in 2008. Plus read more Daily Beast contributors on what Romney’s Florida victory means. On stage last night in Ballroom C of the Tampa Convention Center, Mitt Romney, the winner of the 2012 Florida Republican primary, tried his darndest to simulate the emotional state that Homo sapiens refer to as “happiness.” “Our opponents in the other party ... like to comfort themselves with the...

For all the 2012 GOP candidates, it is the math that makes securing the nomination so complicated. There will be 2,165 delegates to the Republican National Convention in August in Tampa, Florida. In order to win the Republican Nomination, a Presidential candidate must have 1,144 delegates. To put this in perspective, only 112 delegates (less than 10%) have been won. In fact, the candidate with the most delegates (former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney) has only 71 delegates. This seems rather amazing given all of the media attention so far. From the Iowa caucuses to the Florida primary seems like an...

Following the outcome of the Republican primary in Florida, the contest moves on to Nevada this weekend as pundits speculate whether the campaign for the Republican nomination for President is all but over and that Mitt Romney is the eventual nominee. In reality they could be correct if money begins to dry up significantly for Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum. Certainly, Gingrich and Santorum and Ron Paul, for that matter, would love to be in Romney’s shoes today. Despite Romney’s dominance in the race, Gingrich, Santorum, and Paul are expected to be around for a good while to come, but...

Newt Gingrich says he's staying in the Republican presidential race all the way to the GOP convention in August, and that he's willing — even eager — to fight for the nomination on the convention floor. But does he have a chance? Gingrich and his aides seem to think so, and they have a theory of how they can wrest the nomination from Mitt Romney. It begins with pushing Rick Santorum to the sideline and uniting the party's conservative majority behind Gingrich. That's why Gingrich claimed a victory in having turned the campaign into a two-man race in Florida on...

Raleigh, N.C. – Newt Gingrich holds a commanding 18-point lead over Mitt Romney in the Minnesota caucuses. Gingrich has more support than any two candidates combined – he garners 36% of the vote, with 18% going to Romney, 17% to Rick Santorum, 13% to Ron Paul, and 15% not sure. Gingrich also receives the highest net favorability rating at +34 (59/25) followed by Santorum at +32 (56/24), then Romney at just +14 (50/36) and Ron Paul holds a negative favorability rating with -9 (36/45). Both Gingrich (50-29) and Santorum (46-34) beat Romney in one on one matchups. Gingrich has a...

The Florida primary may have delivered a decisive victory for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, but the exit polls also revealed a bright spot for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich — the tea party. Gingrich racked up a decisive victory of his own among voters who said they “strongly support” the tea party movement, according to exit poll data compiled by Fox News. Overall, 45 percent of those voters chose Gingrich over Romney, who finished with just 33 percent of support from strong supporters of the tea party movement. The tea party is also thought to have played a key...

If you were a campaign strategist for Newt Gingrich, you could not have wished for a better outcome than what occurred in the recent South Carolina primary. Weeks before the election, Mitt Romney seemed like he had a virtual lock on the GOP nomination, consistently leading Gingrich and others in preliminary polling. In addition to having sizeable advantages in funding and organization, the Romney team also captured the early endorsement of Gov. Nikki Haley. But somehow, in the days before the election, Gingrich vaulted past Romney and actually bested his opponent by 12 percentage points on Primary Day. One might...

I wonder if three features of the race as it stands today aren't being a bit neglected: 1. Turnout: The Romney-Gingrich slugfest in Florida appears to have produced slightly fewer than 1.7 million voters in this year's primary. That's down by about 12 percent from the 1.94 million who voted in 2008. Not a good sign for the GOP in this key swing state, especially following a flat GOP turnout in Iowa and only a slight uptick in New Hampshire (also swing states). Both of those states have open primaries, so with no Democratic contest this year, in contrast to...

Romney is being portrayed as having locked up the Republican nomination with his Florida victory, but he’s a long way from the 1,144 delegates needed to clinch, and voters in other states deserve to be heard. Yes, Mitt Romney had a big win in Florida last night. He’s won two of the first four primary states, totaling 84 delegates to date. But he needs 1,144 to clinch the Republican nomination—he’s just 7 percent of the way there. So call off the coronation—give people in the other 46 states a chance to vote. “We’re in the first quarter,” says John Brabender,...

Ok...I've been wrong before and I will be again....But here's my predictions for tonights' Florida Primary: Newt will fare much better than expected. Santorum will do a little better than expected as well. Romney may win this, but it will be a much closer race than most people think. Almost every poll in South Carolina put Romney almost exactly where he ended up and the same was true in New Hampshire. To me, this denotes that undecideds are going heavily toward Gingrich, or other candidates as was the case in New Hampshire. In South Carolina, most of the polls showed...

When all polls close by 8 p.m. Eastern tonight in Florida, the winner of the state’s Republican primary may not initially be apparent. After all, the winner takes all, which means the candidate who gets the most votes gets all of the delegates. But the state, with 10 different media markets and a cultural mélange that ranges from Alabama South to Cuba North, is by no means homogeneous. Here are five crucial indicators to keep track of as the returns come in: Absentee VotersThe first key factor is, about a third of Florida voters have already cast their ballots, and...

Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's second day of tracking in Florida finds little change in the state of the race. Mitt Romney leads with 39% to 32% for Newt Gingrich with Rick Santorum at 14% and Ron Paul at 11%. Romney and Santorum are both down a single point from Saturday's polling while Paul has gained 2 points and Gingrich has stayed in place. The reason we don't find Gingrich getting blown out by a double digit margin in Florida is that he's winning a lot of the same groups he did in South Carolina. He's up 37-33 with Evangelicals, 40-33...

PLANTATION, Fla. -- With polls showing Mitt Romney on track for a convincing victory in Tuesday's Republican primary in this state, the one silver lining for Newt Gingrich may be the acceleration of a sorting-out process that is driving more prominent conservatives toward the former House speaker as a parade of establishment GOP leaders rally around Romney. The most powerful dynamic in Florida over the past week has been the Romney campaign's success at blunting the momentum from Gingrich's South Carolina win by seeding a gardenful of personal and political doubts about him. But the sheer ferocity (and success) of...

Mitt Romney, once seen as a sure bet to win the Michigan Republican presidential primary, now appears locked in a surprisingly tight race with challenger Newt Gingrich. Michigan is home turf for the former Massachusetts governor. His late father, George Romney, was a popular governor of Michigan from 1963 to 1969, and the younger Romney grew up in the Detroit suburb of Bloomfield Hills. But with the state’s primary approaching on Feb. 28, Mr. Romney’s lead remains small, given his home-court advantage. A poll released last week by the Detroit Free Press/WXYZ-TV found that 31% of likely voters supported Mr....

Why is Glenn Beck lying to destroy Newt?? Glenn has voiced support for Santorum while his actions are pushing Mitt. On his propaganda page the blaze in one day he had 14 hit pieces on Newt, 9 puff pieces on Mitt and 2 stories mentioning Santorum {one of those could be considered negative}. The amount of dishonesty in those articles and his radio show is mind boggling. Glenn is abusing the trust people have placed in him and trying to get the most liberal candidate the nomination. Newt was surging in Iowa so Glenn went scorched earth and by catching...

A newly released Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll show Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker, leading Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor. The latest nationwide shows Mr. Gingrich leading Mr. Romney by nine percentage points, one of his largest leads to date. According to the poll, Republican voters gave the former House speaker high marks for knowledge and experience, while they continued to harbor doubts about Mr. Romney’s positions on the issues and his feel for average Americans. The poll also found voters hold negative feelings towards the Georgia Republican, who has spent the past several says increasing his criticism...

The New York Times reports today — based on unclear sourcing — that Mitt Romney has endorsed a strategy of raising doubts about Newt Gingrich’s “emotional stability.” Well, if that’s the case, here’s Exhibit A. A Florida source passes along a mailer that the Romney campaign — not the pro-Romney Super PAC; his campaign — just dropped in the state, and it comes as close as possible to making that case, hitting Gingrich as “erratic” and “reckless.” The mailer also prominently features a quote from my colleague Jennifer Rubin, describing Gingrich’s “well of sleaze.” Here’s page one: (GRAPHIC AT LINK)...

With little hope of performing well in Florida next week, Rick Santorum may be cutting his losses. The Republican primary, as predicted, has become solidly a two-man contest between Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney. Santorum is struggling to compete in a state that is much larger, much more expensive and has a more diverse electorate than the previous three contests. The former Pennsylvania senator told reporters in Florida that he was leaving the state after Thursday night's debate for a fundraiser in Pennsylvania and to prepare his tax records to make public at home in Virginia, according to an NBC...

Different crowds, different tones at events for the 2 top GOP candidates. The two leading Republican presidential candidates came to Central Florida on Wednesday, and their events — and reception by voters — couldn't have been more different. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney showed up at factory in Orlando on Wednesday morning, telling a politely enthusiastic crowd of about 400 that President Barack Obama's State of the Union address Tuesday night showed that the president is out of touch with America. "We have a president who is detached from reality. He's detached from the people. He's detached from his own...

BRADENTON – Coming off a big win in South Carolina and polling out front here in the Sunshine State, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich seems to have the momentum heading into Florida's presidential primary on January 31. After winning South Carolina by a wide margin, a recent Rasmussen poll has him nearly 10 points ahead of Romney at 41 and 31 percent respectively. Romney's slide has also now extended into the national polls, where he is also plunging, having dropped 10 points to fall behind the former House Speaker. As the two prospective candidates continue to wage a bloody battle,...

Looking at the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting schedule for the rest of the year one meeting looms politically large, the meeting on October 23-24 (September 12th a close second). This meeting takes place just two weeks before the November 6th Presidential election. A Fed decides to make a dovish move at this meeting, thereby rallying the markets just weeks before the election, there is no question it would have a psychological effect on voters in favor of the Obama administration.

As the primary cycle wends its way into Florida, it’s advisable for Jews to maintain a lively sense of humor as well as a strong sense of irony. Tucked behind the 10-foot privacy shrubs that line the billionaire byways of Palm Beach, trust fund philanthropists are scratching their heads and wondering what all the fuss is about, simply because Mitt Romney referred to a third of a million as “not very much.” How Florida Jews cast their ballots January 31 is actually serious business. After all, the Florida GOP primary will be the first opportunity to get a glimpse of...

From Public Policy Polling, whose poll shows a slightly smaller lead (5 percentage points) for Newt Gingrich than two others today that had him up by 8 and 9 percentage points, respectively: PPP's first post-South Carolina poll in Florida finds Newt Gingrich with a small lead. He's at 38% to 33% for Mitt Romney, 13% for Rick Santorum, and 10% for Ron Paul. Gingrich has gained 12 points since a PPP poll conducted in Florida a week ago. Romney has dropped 8 points. Paul and Santorum have pretty much remained in place. Their favorability numbers show similar trendlines. Gingrich's has...

By the time the voting started yesterday in the South Carolina Republican primary, the collective judgment of the political class was that Newt Gingrich was all but certain to beat Mitt Romney badly — the only question was how badly. Plenty of prognosticators, including Impolitic, predicted that Gingrich would win by a double-digit margin, as he did (the final spread was 13 points, on a 40 to 27 percent split). But virtually no one would have dared venture a forecast of a blowout as abject and total as the one that indeed took place. Take a gander at the exit...

Two new Florida primary polls, the first since Newt Gingrich's deeply, profoundly impressive victory in South Carolina on Saturday, have now been released, and it appears that the bounce everyone thought he would receive has materialized as expected. An Insider Advantage poll has Gingrich leading Mitt Romney 34 percent to 26 percent, while a Rasmussen poll has Gingrich up 41 percent to 32 percent. Meanwhile, PPP has also tweeted out much tighter (preliminary) numbers from its polling efforts in the Sunshine and Meth and Old People State: Gingrich and Romney are separated by just two voters after polling 600 people....

Presumably, polling data that is more comprehensive and authoritative will be released in the next few days, but the initial indicators point to a Florida primary race that has been utterly transformed by Newt Gingrich’s resurgence. Just a week ago, when he was coming off victories in Iowa* and New Hampshire and seemed on his way to a convincing South Carolina win, three different polls in the Sunshine State gave Mitt Rommey an average lead of 22 points, with Newt Gingrich running a very distant second in one of them and third (behind Rick Santorum) in the other. But now...

PROSPERITY, S.C. - Erik Grantham walked out of Stable Steak House on Main Street, through a door hand-painted in bright yellow with "Jesus is the reason." "I have not been home in months," he said, leaning against his truck as if to emphasize his exhaustion. "I am a welder, but there is no work at home, so I travel, going from job to job across the state." Dressed in stained overalls and sipping a Coke, he said he would not be home for Saturday's Republican primary. He hopes to be there for November's election, to make his voice heard. "I...

Newt Gingrich has now surged to a significant lead over Mitt Romney in Florida, leading the former front-runner now by 8 points, according to a new poll by InsiderAdvantage completed Sunday night of likely Republican primary voters. The InsiderAdvantage poll of of 557 registered Republican voters is one of the first polls taken in Florida in the aftermath of Gingrich's double-digit win in the South Carolina primary Saturday. The poll results follow: Gingrich: 34% Romney: 26% Paul: 13% Santorum: 11% Other: 2% No opinion: 14% The InsiderAdvantage poll was the first major poll last week to show the significant surge...

While Gingrich's come-from-behind victory in Saturday's South Carolina primary has put a halt to discussions of Mitt Romney as the inevitable GOP nominee, the former Massachusetts governor remains the heavy favorite for the next primary contest in Florida and the Republican nomination. For the former House speaker to fully claw his way back into contention, he'll have to put together a remarkable week in the lead-up to the Jan. 31 Sunshine state primary. Luckily for Gingrich, he already has a template: his successful effort in South Carolina. The former Speaker's upset win in the Palmetto state — he was trailing...

Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina primary, 40 percent to 28 percent, over Mitt Romney. He also won every Congressional district and, in doing so, won all of South Carolina’s 25 delegates. Now the battle heads to Florida, which holds its primary on Jan. 31. Here are five things to look for as the race heads to Florida. 1. Momentum versus organization Newt Gingrich will come into Florida with momentum, gained from winning South Carolina’s primary, which every Republican presidential nominee has won since 1980. But Romney has a head start in Florida. He has hundreds of thousands of absentee...

With Rick Santorum’s performance tonight there will likely be pressure from the GOP establishment on the former Senator from Pennsylvania to drop out of the GOP presidential primary race. So far Santorum mirrors the 2008 Huckabee campaign, obviously because of the win over Romney in Iowa, but also the bare-bones structure of his campaign and lack of fundraising ability.

A lot of things have transpired over the last 48 hours to completely change the dynamics of the race for the Republican nomination: 1. Rick Santorum was declared the winner in the Iowa Caucuses showing that Mitt Romney is in fact beatable. 2. Rick Perry has bailed out of the Presidential race, endorsing Newt Gingrich, and saying that he will actively campaign for the Speaker. 3. The most current polls in South Carolina show that Romney's support is starting to erode, while the same polls are showing that Gingrich's is growing daily. Four polls, Clemson/Palmetto, Public Policy Polling, Rasmussen and...

COLUMBIA, S.C. -- With a just-completed Clemson Palmetto (S.C.) poll showing 20 percent of likely voters in today’s Republican presidential primary undecided, many political pundits are convinced that the race could go to either Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney. One of Gingrich’s top supporters in the Palmetto State argued otherwise, stating that those who are undecided are more likely to fall into the camp of the former House speaker than that of the former Massachusetts governor. (VIDEO AT LINK) “These [undecided] voters are conservative, and Mitt Romney has always had the problem of proving he is genuinely conservative,” Mike Campbell,...

CLEMSON, S.C. — With polls opening in less than 24 hours for the important South Carolina presidential primary election, the final Palmetto Poll shows Newt Gingrich leading over Mitt Romney in a gritty battle fraught with personal attacks and breaking news about the candidates’ personal lives. That’s the finding of the third Clemson University 2012 Palmetto Poll, a sample of 429 South Carolina GOP voters who indicated they plan to vote Saturday. The telephone poll was initiated Jan. 13 and recalibrated Jan. 18-19 to measure changing dynamics. Twenty percent of the likely voters remain undecided. “We expect a reaction by...

If frontrunner Mitt Romney survives the Republican primary process and becomes the party's presumptive nominee, a majority of Democrats surveyed in this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll say he will enter the general election campaign a weaker candidate than when he began his run. But by an overwhelming margin, Republican Insiders feel the primary campaign has been a benefit, leaving Romney stronger and more prepared to take on President Obama. (GRAPH AT LINK) Many Republicans feel the primary process has been a critical pressure-test for Romney's campaign skills, resulting in a more honed and prepared candidate. "He has weathered...

Newt Gingrich, who's tried to contain damage from sordid claims his second wife Marianne Gingrich over the last 24 hours, was bolstered on conservative talk radio earlier today by Rush Limbaugh and Sarah Palin. Limbaugh suggested an effort to try to "clear the field" on the GOP side, saying, "What needs to be said about Newt? It's out there. It's out there. I don't know. Fifty percent of the country has been divorced. I don't know...You have to think with Values Voters, yeah. Got any Values Voters? ...Well, they knew that Newt was divorced. They knew the first divorce story...

CHARLESTON, S.C. -- On June 3, 2010, a phone rang at the campaign headquarters of Iowa gubernatorial candidate Terry Branstad. Leo Hough, a receptionist, picked up and was greeted by a familiar voice. It was Sarah Palin, calling to let the campaign know that she was about to endorse Branstad on Facebook and Twitter. There had been no previous discussions between the former Alaska governor and the candidate, who was as pleasantly surprised as everyone else when told the news. That episode is typical of how Palin has made endorsements: suddenly, independently and without fanfare. After leaving an indelible mark...

You’ve got to admire Sarah Palin’s cunning — even if your eardrums can’t take her squeal. If Newt Gingrich wins Saturday in South Carolina, she can claim total credit. She just endorsed him — sort of. If he even gets close — and he’s closer to Mitt Romney in two new polls — she can point to her last-minute vote of confidence. “If I had to vote in South Carolina,” she told Fox News’ Sean Hannity on Tuesday, “in order to keep things going, I would vote for Newt.” If things don’t go well, hey, she’s got lots of wiggle...

Mitt Romney waged a new onslaught against Newt Gingrich on Wednesday amid signs that the former House speaker was gaining traction in his drive to emerge as the sole viable alternative for the Republican presidential nomination. In a rare departure from his usual practice of ignoring GOP rivals and engaging President Obama instead, Romney ridiculed Gingrich for taking credit for millions of jobs created when he served in Congress. "Congressmen taking responsibility or taking credit for helping create jobs is like [former Vice President] Al Gore taking credit for the Internet," Romney told supporters at Wofford College in Spartanburg, S.C....

Sarah Palin isn’t running for President, but she may be trying to influence how people vote. According to ABC News, Palin said that if she lived in South Carolina, she would vote for Newt Gingrich. “Just one week after her husband Todd Palin “went rogue” and endorsed Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich, former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin said tonight she would vote for Gingrich “if I were a South Carolinian” — the closest she has come to an endorsement in this race. Palin said tonight on “Sean Hannity” that she wants to see the race continue because “iron sharpens...

Presidential candidate Newt Gingrich​’s outstanding debate performance on Monday and key endorsements could set the stage for a strong showing by Gingrich in Saturday’s South Carolina primary, which would position him for a possible win in the Florida primary on Jan. 31 and a chance at the Republican nomination for President this summer. That’s what the two former Republican U.S. Representatives who are chairing Gingrich’s campaign in those two key states told HUMAN EVENTS yesterday. Following what even Gingrich’s enemies say was a virtuoso performance in the debate at Myrtle Beach (S.C.) Monday evening, former Reps. John Napier (S.C.) and...

Almost two-thirds of adult Facebook users in South Carolina say they aren't fans of the tea party, according to a Facebook poll conducted today with POLITICO. Sixty-two percent of those surveyed said they are "not at all supportive" of the tea party, compared with 20 percent who were "somewhat supportive" and 18 percent who were "very supportive." Of those surveyed, women were slightly less supportive of the tea party. Just 35 percent were either "somewhat" or "very" supportive of the movement, compared with 42 percent among men. The results only represent the sentiment of South Carolina users on Facebook, not...

Since I wrote this little blog post the other day, picked up at Real Clear Politics, all of a sudden (by coincidence; I'm not claiming I had anything to do with it, but just am remarking on how rapidly the 'meme' has taken off) all sorts of people are suddenly realizing that Mitt Romney is hardly the candidate with the best chance to beat Barack Obama. It certainly isn't all at the Center for Individual Freedom, but we did have a written colloquy on the subject the other day, with Troy Senik and Ashton Ellis insightfully joining me in weighing...

Three new polls show former House Speaker Newt Gingrich gaining on Mitt Romney in South Carolina and emerging as the clear conservative choice of voters who are not backing the former Massachusetts governor for the Republican presidential nomination. An Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion Research survey completed on Thursday shows that Gingrich is actually in a statistical tie with Romney in South Carolina, with 21.3 percent of the vote to Romney’s 23.1. Gingrich leads Romney in several demographic groups, including voters 18 to 29 years old, black voters, male voters, and Independents. Ron Paul and Rick Santorum each received 13 percent of...

Call it the case of the rising Texan and plunging Pennsylvanian. Here’s how GOP presidential hopefuls fared in a second round of South Carolina polls released Friday. (The fine print: Two sets of polls from Rasmussen Reports, Public Policy Polling and American Research Group have been released in the past week -- before and after the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday): Winner: Ron Paul Who cares if the Texas congressman has made one announced campaign visit in South Carolina since finishing second in the New Hampshire primary. He’s got the momentum, gaining 22 percentage points combined in the three polls...