Posted on 10/31/2002 4:34:44 AM PST by RJCogburn
A write-in effort on behalf of incumbent U.S. Sen. Bob Smith has helped Democrat Jeanne Shaheen's Senate campaign against Republican John E. Sununu and could tip the balance on Election Day, a key pollster said yesterday.
Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, said data suggest the write-in campaigns could make a 2 to 4 percent difference by swaying Smith supporters to write in Smith, vote for Shaheen or cast no vote at all.
"It's a reason why Shaheen could win this race," Smith said. "This is the most interesting thing of this campaign so far."
A recent UNH poll showed Shaheen, a three-term governor, pulling even with Sununu, a three-term congressman who defeated Smith in the GOP primary. The poll found that 26 percent of those who voted for Smith in the primary now support Shaheen.
Another UNH poll is due out today or tomorrow. The election, closely watched because of its potential effect on control of the Senate, is Tuesday.
Smith has refused to discourage the write-in efforts. He said on primary night he would support Sununu, but he skipped a GOP unity breakfast two days later and has not appeared at any of Sununu's campaign events.
Dartmouth College government professor Dean Spiliotes agreed with pollster Smith.
"If it is a dead heat, even 1 or 2 percent could make a difference," he said. "Smith is certainly not going to stop it. The Smith campaign, or what's left of it, has sent a pretty clear message to Sununu that he is on his own."
Publicly, Republicans say they are not overly concerned about the write-in effort.
But privately, it's another matter. Organizers of the write-in say some Republicans have urged them to stop. President Bush asked Smith to attend a Sununu fund-raiser earlier this month, but Smith refused. And Sununu said in an interview last week with that any votes he fails to get could help Shaheen.
"I need and want every vote possible. I need and want the vote of everybody who supported Bob Smith in the primary," he said.
Sununu refused to say whether he had talked to Smith and asked him to call off the dogs. Smith did not return several phone calls to his Washington office yesterday.
Sununu spokeswoman Julie Teer said, "Since primary night, we've had tremendous support from supporters of Senator Smith. John Sununu doesn't take any vote for granted. He knows every vote counts."
Meanwhile, Shaheen has stepped up efforts to appeal to independents and Republicans, who outnumber Democrats by 75,000 in the state.
At least three groups are organizing write-in drives for Smith. One, Campaign for Political Leadership, said it has raised $10,000 and, judging by the number of visits to its Web site, it believes 3,000 to 5,000 voters could write in Smith's name.
"We have had both encouragement and discouragement from people within the Republican Party. Most of what we have gotten is discouragement," said group spokesman Eric Scott.
Mary Stipe of Merrimack, who is organizing another write-in effort, said her group has spoken to several hundred people about voting for Smith and has put up signs and handed out bumper stickers around the state.
"I don't plan on stopping," Stipe said. "Have I felt pressure? Yes."
Republican national committeeman Tom Rath downplayed the effect of the write-in effort.
"I think it's a very close race between two good candidates," Rath said. "I don't believe at the end of the day it will be a determining factor. I think the choice is so stark between John Sununu and Jeanne Shaheen and the stakes are so high."
He said there is little anyone can do now to stop the write-in campaigns.
Thomas Thomson, son of the late former Gov. Meldrim Thomson, urged Republicans in a newspaper editorial this week to stop the write-in campaign and back Sununu. He said his father would have given Smith the following advice.
"My friend, the people have spoken and we need to support the Republican candidate, John Sununu, for U.S. Senate," Thomson wrote. "For if we fail to do so, we make it easier for a liberal Democrat, Jeanne Shaheen, to ruin everything we as conservatives have worked and fought so hard for over the years."
You must have had an aneurysm the night Smith lost the Primary. Jeffords was hardly a republican at all. He had an ACU rating in the 20's while Sununu has a rating in the mid 90's. It was Smith who left the Republican party and tried to stab bush in the back by running as a 3rd party presidential candidate.
That's a very tiny squad you've got there, commander.
Oh, btw, in today's Union Leader..."Bob Smith wants no part of write-in " on the front page.
Really? Who did Sununu stab in the back?
While not specifically calling for a halt to the write-in, Carluccio said, “The senator has nothing to do with the write-in campaign and wants nothing to do with the write-in effort.” He declined further comment.
Wow. Gee. I'm overwhelmed. I do hope Bob Smith surprises some people and shows up at the President's event in NH, publicly endorsing John Sununu.
There's your GOP October Surprise. It would dominate the news between now and Tuesday. The people at the rally today would erupt with cheers to see the two of them with Bush on the stage. I'm not holding my breath.
Other than keeping taxes low, the remaining issues are merely media points to draw attention to himself.
As he has shown in the past, Senator Smith is putting himself first and, in a childish huff, is willing to put liberal RAT Shaheen in office. All of my prior impressions of him have been confirmed.
Sununu's numbers ... 94%, five (5) years of service.
Bob Smith's numbers ... 92%, seventeen (17) years of service.
Can't help wondering if Sununu gets 12 more years of service will his numbers still be comparable to Bob's or will he grow in office?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.