[AuH2ORepublican]

"I'd say Kennedy is favored but an upset looks quite possible, and wouldn't it be a sweet one."

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I think an upset is definitely possible. If Bush does as well in the cities and suburbs as I think he will because of national security issues (reversing the decade-long swing to the RATs brought about by the end of the Cold War and the new focus on social issues), he will not do anywhere near as poorly in Providence as he did in 2000. And the blue-collar townships in eastern RI, filled with social conservatives, may belatedly move towards the GOP (as they have in other states for the past decade). Kennedy's district is ridiculously Democrat, but I don't see why Bush can't get 40%-45% of the vote in the district in 2004. Accordingly, Rogers will only need to pick up an extra 5%-10% of ticket-splitters to send Kennedy packing. It won't be easy, but nothing worthwhile ever is.

[nospinzone]

Would you say the RI GOP is in good enough shape to help Rogers give Kennedy a challenge? I'm not sure how to judge the strength of the RI GOP, given more recent officeholders (The two Chafees and Lincoln Almond) were liberal Republicans, and Carcieri being conservative.