PDA, RIP

economist ^ | Oct 16th 2003

[stainlessbanner]

The next big thing that wasn't---or was it?

IS IT time to declare the demise of the handheld computer, also known as the personal digital assistant (PDA)? A lot of people suddenly think so, for despite high hopes that the devices---made by such firms as Palm, Sony, HP and Dell---would someday become ubiquitous, annual sales have stayed flat at around 11m units worldwide. This compares poorly with PCs, around 130m of which are sold every year, and mobile phones, with sales of around 460m units. ---The PDA market will never be a mass market,--- says Cindy Wolf, an analyst at In-Stat/MDR, a market-research firm. Almost everyone who wants a PDA, she says, now has one.

In contrast, sales of smartphones, high-powered mobile handsets capable of doing most things PDAs can do, are rising fast. Smartphones can be used to store addresses and phone numbers, download small pieces of software (such as games), browse the internet while on the move, store and play music, and jot down brief messages. And, of course, they are also telephones. Why carry both a phone and a PDA around, when you can carry a single hybrid device? Fewer than 4m smartphones were sold during 2002, but nearly 12m will be sold this year, says Neil Strother of In-Stat/MDR. Although final sales figures are not yet available, it seems very likely that sales of smartphones overtook sales of PDAs in the third quarter of this year.

---The PDA is dead,--- says David Levin, the boss of Symbian, the leading maker of smartphone software. Anssi Vanjoki of Nokia, the world's biggest mobile-phone maker, agrees. PDAs without wireless connectivity are doomed, he says. Even as Nokia, Sony Ericsson and other handset makers build PDA-like functions into their smartphones, some PDA makers are adding phone capability to their handhelds.The two camps have arrived at the same result---a hybrid PDA-phone---from opposite directions.

David Nagel of PalmSource, the firm that licenses the Palm operating system to makers of phones and PDAs, dismisses the idea that one camp or the other has won. To say that there is a single ---killer device--- is, he says, an oversimplification, for there is room for a whole range of PDA-like devices in the marketplace---of which smartphones, in his view, are just one kind. PalmSource is, he says, well placed to compete with Symbian and Microsoft to provide the software to power pocket-sized devices.

This much is clear: handheld computers must be phones too, if they are to sell in any quantity. PDAs of the traditional type, which do not double as phones, are condemned to remain a tiny niche. But whether the sudden rise of the smartphone constitutes the death of the PDA, or its triumph by other means, is a matter of opinion. In other words, the PDA is dead---long live the PDA.

[madison10]

They cost too much for what they do, but they are cute toys.

[Young Rhino]

PDAs of the traditional type, which do not double as phones, are condemned to remain a tiny niche.

A niche for those of us who do not want our private files accessible by others via "connectivity." Some things should be kept separate.

[meowmeow]

Gee...I'm sitting in a boring Monday morning staff meeting, writing this post on my wireless PDA. I love this thing. Just call me a bronze age dinosaur.

[governsleastgovernsbest]

Smart phones can also take and transmit photos, which PDAs can't.

[longtermmemmory]

Smardphones ARE pda's. The microsoft pocketpc phone combination is excellent. If you really want to find out about some of this stuff go to http://pocketpcthoughts.com or http://pocketpcpassion.com the latter is pretty good.

[Chancellor Palpatine]

I tossed my Cassiopia PDA a year ago, and went back to a daytimer. With a written calendar, I don't have to worry when I drop it, I don't have to take time to boot it up, I don't lose data when my batteries run dry, I don't have to worry about scratching the screen, I don't have to worry about accidental erasures, I don't have to learn a new way of writing, and I don't have to worry about connectivity problems with my ports.

[longtermmemmory]

my pda has a camera, my pda has a chip I can put hours of music, my pda hooks up to my car stereo.

This is just a puff piece. The combination of the two devices is old news. It is inevitable that the two would combine. Whatever marketing calls them, they a useful ways to deal with data.

[MoJo2001]

Woohoo! Anyone fall asleep yet at the dreaded "Monday morning staff meeting"? Hehehe!! Anything exciting going on?? Hehehe!

[showme_the_Glory]

"In other words, the PDA is dead "

After 4 years my Palm Vx finally quit holding a charge. I replaced it with a Hi-Res color CLIE'.

When this one dies, I'll get another. In other words the PDA is not dead.

[stainlessbanner]

Hear hear. I still take notes on a legal pad - I've lost more pdas than I care to admit. (original sharp zaurus user)

[stainlessbanner]

writing this post on my wireless PDA

....And the boss thinks your taking meeting notes!

[longtermmemmory]

Cassiopia used natural language for input.

I still use mine.

It should be noted that symbian, major comentator here, tried the pda market but was drowned out.

I actual have one of his phones, the symbian system is waaaay too limiting.

Of course microsoft teamed with motorola (who licenses to nokia) for a reason.

[Chancellor Palpatine]

In the end, mine was clunky. The contacts on the drop in had to be jiggled every time, and finally, no matter how many times I tried reinstalling CE services, this computer stopped recognition of the serial port while the thing was plugged in.

Bleah - no more for me.

[Bikers4Bush]

That's not true.

[longtermmemmory]

my brick is still going, but casio did get out of the pda market. A constant problem with casio, bad support for their products.

[disclaimer]

With a written calendar, I don't have to worry when I drop it, I don't have to take time to boot it up, I don't lose data when my batteries run dry, I don't have to worry about scratching the screen, I don't have to worry about accidental erasures, I don't have to learn a new way of writing, and I don't have to worry about connectivity problems with my ports.

Just hope you don't misplace your daytimer or someone steals it having your private information in plain view without password protection. You can't exactly buy a new daytimer and sync it then continue where you had left off. Going back to paper is tempting for me too, but it has its drawbacks as well.

[Jack Wilson]

I liked the Sharp Wizards with keyboards. Since mine died, I have had trouble finding a new one, except on EBay, where the collectors seem to be grabbing them up.

[Chancellor Palpatine]

I double up the info. If I have an entry in the daytime, I put it into Outlook as well. And I keep no credit card, banking or critical personal stuff in the daytimer.

Also, I can say I haven't lost any calendar over the past 15 years.

[boris]

I am too disorganized to use an electronic organizer!

Oh, I bought one: a neat Handspring monochrome thin thing. It never leaves its cradle.

My being disorganized is a good thing: if I ever got my act together, I'd take over the world.

--Boris