Oh no; not at all. Neither is either side poorly led or supplied, weak in resolve, nor short of external support from those using the Nepalese factions as proxies. Could this war surpass the Shining Path/FARC S. American tactics in cruelty and brutality? Has it already?
It's probably at least equal to it in intensity, and that's a good comparison, since there's a decidedly Maoist bent to the Peruvianos' Sendero Luminoso. There are certainly comparisons in terrain as well, so long as you don't try to stretch the comparison too far.
What are the chances of a Maoist victory, or a of the Maoists being decisively crushed?
Over the short haul, probably not good for either. Over a longer period, it might eventually go either way, depending on whether the Nepalese Government institutes some reforms without appearing to do so as concessions out of weakness and institutes some innovations sorely needed by the military, or just continues to maintain a *business-as-usual* attitude.
It's probably worth keeping an eyec on developments on neighboring Bhutan as well.
Care to be added to the *Kukri* Nepal/Gurkha news ping list?
-archy-/-
