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Researchers question key global-warming study
USA Today ^ | 10/28/2003 | Nick Schulz

Posted on 10/28/2003 7:10:41 PM PST by polemikos

Edited on 04/13/2004 1:41:19 AM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]

An important new paper in the journal Energy & Environment upsets a key scientific claim about climate change. If it withstands scrutiny, the collective scientific understanding of recent global warming might need an overhaul.

A little background is needed to understand the importance of the new research behind this paper by Stephen McIntyre, a statistics expert who works in the mining industry, and Ross McKitrick, a professor of economics at the University of Guelph, Ontario. As scientists and governments have tried to understand mankind's influence on the environment, global warming has become a primary concern. Do mankind's activities especially burning fossil fuels to create energy affect climate? If so, how? What should be done?


(Excerpt) Read more at usatoday.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Culture/Society; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: climatechange; environment; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax
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Soo-prise, Soo-prise, Soo-prise.
1 posted on 10/28/2003 7:10:41 PM PST by polemikos
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To: polemikos
McCain's web site says, "Global warming is a growing problem. ... The 10 warmest years (on record) have all occurred since 1987."

Hey, Algore cloned himself apparently.
2 posted on 10/28/2003 7:14:39 PM PST by polemikos (This Space for Rant)
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To: *Global Warming Hoax
Indexing
3 posted on 10/28/2003 7:14:50 PM PST by farmfriend ( Isaiah 55:10,11)
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To: All

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4 posted on 10/28/2003 7:15:14 PM PST by Bob J (www.freerepublic.net www.radiofreerepublic.com...check them out!)
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To: Nachum
ping for paper
5 posted on 10/28/2003 7:16:48 PM PST by farmfriend ( Isaiah 55:10,11)
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To: polemikos
Well these guys will have tough time gettin anymore research dollars...
6 posted on 10/28/2003 7:17:10 PM PST by Always Right
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To: polemikos
Just 30 years ago, the chicken-littles were claiming that we were headed for another ice age. Lying with statistics can be fun and profitable, too.
7 posted on 10/28/2003 7:26:19 PM PST by Post Toasties
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To: polemikos
MODEL BUILDING:
Climate models are filled with assumptions, bad data, tweaks, simplifications, etc.
These parameters can be "tweaked" to force the model to show ANY desired result.

Projections of climate change are based on models and assumptions which
"are not only unknown, but unknowable within ranges relevant for policy-making"

Models fail to adequately handle clouds, water vapour, aerosols, precipitation,
ocean currents, solar effects, complex weather patterns, etc.

Model simulation of surface temperature appears to be little more than fortuitous
curve-fitting rather than a demonstration of human influence on global climate.

Temperature rise projections this century are "unknown and unknowable".

"Climate models [are] projections, story lines, [more aptly termed] fairy tales."
-- Hartwig Volz, geophysicist, RWE Research Laboratory, Germany

"Global warming projections [are] completely unrealistic...assuming extreme scenarios
of population growth and fossil fuel consumption"
-- S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist, University of Virginia, Environmental Policy Project

"The balance of evidence suggests that there has been no appreciable warming since 1940.
This would indicate that the human effects on climate must be quite small."
-- S. Fred Singer, atmospheric physicist, University of Virginia, Environmental Policy Project



PREDICTING THE PAST:
Climate models, which serve as the basis for long-term climate predictions,
have clearly failed when tested against observed climate data.

Models fail to reproduce the known difference in trends between the
lower troposphere and surface temperatures over the past 20 years.

They don't show the actual amount of temperature change at the Earth's surface
Models can't predict the recent past, let alone the long-term future.

Antarctica has been cooling since 1966, directly contradicting model results
that suggest that warming will be more pronounced in the Earth's polar regions.

-- Nature magazine

the Antarctic ice sheet is expanding rather than shrinking,
contrary to what global-warming enthusiasts would have us believe.

-- Science magazine



I'm thinking the global climate computer models are going to have to be "tweaked" some more ;-)
8 posted on 10/28/2003 7:27:57 PM PST by polemikos (This Space for Rant)
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To: polemikos
Ping for real science!

Gee, I wonder why the raw data was not published.

Uh....because it did not support the conclusion?

9 posted on 10/28/2003 7:34:40 PM PST by MonroeDNA (Please become a monthly donor!!! Just $3 a month--you won't miss it, and will feel proud!)
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To: polemikos

I wonder what Mann's background is. Hidden agenda, no doubt. Won't publish his data. Why?
10 posted on 10/28/2003 7:36:40 PM PST by MonroeDNA (Please become a monthly donor!!! Just $3 a month--you won't miss it, and will feel proud!)
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To: polemikos
I remember seeing somewhere that the Mann 'hockey stick' curve was derived by stitching together selected data from uncorrelatable sources from before versus after the turn of the 20th century and then skewing the trendline to the limit of improbability to appear to agree with the global-warministas' agenda, something which is referred to as 'lying with statistics' by non-charlatans.


11 posted on 10/28/2003 7:44:33 PM PST by Post Toasties
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To: Bob J
what does your posted ad have to do with this thread???

Does Jimrob now allow ads to be posted???

Are we getting "commercial" now???

I hope not.

Find a way to post your ad top level - not on individual threads.

LVM

12 posted on 10/28/2003 7:44:38 PM PST by LasVegasMac (You tell 'em I'm coming! And you tell 'em Hell is coming with me!!!)
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To: polemikos; ancient_geezer; Grampa Dave; Lancey Howard
Ping.

More Mann-made warming meets the light of day.

Bet there's lots more too.

13 posted on 10/28/2003 7:46:43 PM PST by PeaceBeWithYou (De Oppresso Liber!)
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To: polemikos
You want to experience global warming? Come on down to Biloxi in August...Your sweat will sweat...
14 posted on 10/28/2003 7:47:23 PM PST by trebb
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To: RedBloodedAmerican
I thought that we were due for another ice age? So. Do we worry about an ice sheet making Canada and Patagonia uninhabitable, or do we worry about global warming melting the polar ice caps and moving the coastline to Arizona? Some days I wish for that humongous asteroid...
15 posted on 10/28/2003 8:04:11 PM PST by Devlin (throwing my $0.004 in (after taxes))
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To: polemikos
We used to have a TV show called "The Six Million Dollar Man". When are we going to have a TV show about "The Six Hundred Quadrillion Dollars Liars"?
16 posted on 10/28/2003 8:07:30 PM PST by the lone wolf (Good Luck, and watch out for stobor.)
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To: Devlin
Hang on, I am sitting in the spaceship. I'll get back to you shortly.
17 posted on 10/28/2003 8:12:40 PM PST by RedBloodedAmerican
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To: MonroeDNA
Gee, I wonder why the raw data was not published.

Uh....because it did not support the conclusion?

Hmm... Michael Mann is not related to Michael Besillies, is he?

18 posted on 10/28/2003 8:32:02 PM PST by Frohickey
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To: polemikos
My favorite example of the weakness of these atmospheric models is how Carl Sagan made a fool out of himself after the first Gulf War, predicting a "nuclear winter" from the burning oil wells in Kuwait. These were of course the same models he was using to predict other doomsday scenarios.
19 posted on 10/28/2003 8:42:22 PM PST by Rocky
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To: Frohickey
"Michael Mann is not related to Michael Besillies, is he?"

More likely related to Michael Moore.
20 posted on 10/28/2003 8:45:35 PM PST by Rocky
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