Memo forecasts Dem gain

NY Daily ^ | 11/4/03 | Thomas DeFrank

[Tumbleweed_Connection]

As President Bush lined his bulging campaign coffers with another $1.85 million from an Alabama fund-raiser yesterday, his chief pollster warned loyalists that Bush will trail his Democratic rival at some point next year. "This race is likely to be very tight and go down to the wire," chief strategist Matthew Dowd wrote in a memorandum released by the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign. "This race will be decided within a four-or five-point margin, not the 18- to 20-point margins like 1984 or 1972."

While a recovering economy has helped shore up Bush's approval numbers, he said, "the country is very evenly divided, and with Democratic partisans lined up solidly against President Bush, this race will stay very close."

The expectations-lowering memorandum noted that once the Democrats settle on a candidate by next spring, "it would not be surprising for us to fall behind for a bit."

"Once the Democratic nominee is all but assured, that person will receive a deluge of positive press at least for a couple of weeks, and this will temporarily be reflected in public opinion polls," the memo continues.

Bush's fund-raising take at a Birmingham, Ala., lunch, meanwhile, pushed his total raised to $95.4 million, according to reports filed with the Federal Election Commission. That's more campaign cash raised in six months than Bush garnered in all of 2000.

[corkoman]

The expectations-lowering memorandum...

Says it all.

[areafiftyone]

If the democratic nomination is Howard Dean it will not be that close as they predict. Dean is pro-gay marriage and anti-war - he constantly slips up and is very nasty. He has the personality of a crash test dummy. He mouth looks like a ventriloquist's dummy when he smiles. If the nomination is John Kerry then Bush will have a tight race.

[Pikamax]

"Once the Democratic nominee is all but assured, that person will receive a deluge of positive press at least for a couple of weeks, and this will temporarily be reflected in public opinion polls," the memo continues. "


a deluge? come on...

[xsmommy]

chief strategist Matthew Dowd

relative of Mo's?

[areafiftyone]

Seems to me like the liberal media is dying to get a nominee so they can have their deluge.

[Post Toasties]

This is why I haven't responded to the Bush job performance poll on FR as of yet. He'll only have a shot at doing an 'excellent' job if he gets reelected, IMO. If he somehow manages to lose in 2004 and one of the dwarves gets into the WH, I wouldn't feel justified going higher than 'good'.

[Hank Rearden]

Just a ploy to extract more campaign cash.

[Fee]

Independents will decide the day. When they are in the poll booth, they will ask themselves one question, "Is the world sooo bad, that I am willing to throw out GWB for an unknown??" I do not think so.

[RiflemanSharpe]

Just a ploy to extract more campaign cash.

You beat me to it.

[InterceptPoint]

He has the personality of a crash test dummy

I'm no Dean fan but you need to remember the sparkling personalities of McGovern and Mondale. They were complete duds. Dean is another Elvis by comparison. This election will be much closer than the cake walks of 1972 and 1984.

[desertcry]

Have you seen a howler monkey howl, that's dean when he speaks.

[areafiftyone]

Well I have to admit you might be right - Now that I think of it, Gore had the personality of a wood chip and that race was close.

[desertcry]

Are you suggesting that cbs, abc, cnn, nbc, pbs, npr, nyt, lat, ... and the rest of the liberal media will take a holiday for least six months?

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Once the Democratic nominee is all but assured, that person will receive a deluge of positive press at least for a couple of weeks,

What world does he live in? The press will make the Democratic candidate out to be the Second Coming right up to and past election day. We can only win if he opens his mouth and speaks.

[princess leah]

Nope - this is the same "underestimate Bush" tactic that has gotten the President his tax cuts, his 87 billion for Iraq, etc.

[Cobra64]

Gore had the personality of a wood chip and that race was close.

Gore's "wooden" personality qualifies him for the "Totem Pole" award.

[Recovering_Democrat]

"Once the Democratic nominee is all but assured, that person will receive a deluge of positive press at least for a couple of weeks...

A couple of weeks?? Hell, try "from the March primaries until the first week in November...and beyond, especially when Democrat Party Operatives descend upon battleground states with scumball lawyers to challenge the election results."

[Recovering_Democrat]

Massachusetts will go blue. So will Vermont. D.C., with its three electoral votes, will go blue.

Bush has a shot at California and New York, though.