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Largest Solar Flare Ever Recorded (X30-X40) DOES have an Earth-Directed Component
Solar-Terrestrial Dispatch Mailing List ^

Posted on 11/04/2003 6:04:19 PM PST by John H K

The X18+ solar flare has been associated with a high velocity FULL HALO coronal mass ejection. There IS an Earthward directed component. Estimated plane of sky velocity for this event is 2381 km/sec, although it is probable the true velocity is above 2400 km/sec because there is some evidence for acceleration of the CME.

True x-ray intensity is unknown, but is probably near the X30 x-ray level (possibly between X30 and X40). VERY impressive event! Definitely one for the record books.

We have no idea yet when this one might impact the Earth or how strong the impact might be. We're waiting for a bit more data to arrive before we start the number crunching.


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: flare; signsandwonders; solarflare; solarflare2003; solarflares; sun
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So, may get some Aurora out of this after all.

Before people go bonkers I'm sure this doesn't mean the end of the world; it's still going to be weaker than if it was pointed absolutely directly at earth.

And while it's the largest ever recorded by a huge margin, we've only really been "recording" flares in a meaningful way for about 25-30 years or so.

I'm sure humanity has survived hundreds of hits like this :-)

The largest ever was an X20 on February 2, 2001, which wasn't pointed at Earth at all and I suspect most people didn't exactly notice anything.

These guys have a history of being far more accurate than US Government agencies, will take them a while before they issue a CME impact forecast.

1 posted on 11/04/2003 6:04:20 PM PST by John H K
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To: John H K
The X18+ solar flare has been associated with a high velocity FULL HALO coronal mass ejection. There IS an Earthward directed component. Estimated plane of sky velocity for this event is 2381 km/sec, although it is probable the true velocity is above 2400 km/sec because there is some evidence for acceleration of the CME.

Ok...now explain this in terms that I might understand, please!

2 posted on 11/04/2003 6:09:46 PM PST by Heff (NJ Needs Auto Insurance reform!!!!!)
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To: Heff
it move fast lol
3 posted on 11/04/2003 6:10:41 PM PST by corkoman
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To: corkoman
And it's speeding up!
4 posted on 11/04/2003 6:12:00 PM PST by 6ppc
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To: Heff
It reads like the Income Tax Laws doesn't it?
5 posted on 11/04/2003 6:12:23 PM PST by ConservativeMan55 (The left always "feels your pain" unless of course they caused it.)
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To: Heff
It make pretty lights in sky, too!
6 posted on 11/04/2003 6:13:46 PM PST by CWW
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To: ConservativeMan55
It reads like the Income Tax Laws doesn't it?

No kidding! Can anyone explain what exactly is happening?

7 posted on 11/04/2003 6:14:00 PM PST by Heff (NJ Needs Auto Insurance reform!!!!!)
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To: John H K
More info and comments here..http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1014812/posts
8 posted on 11/04/2003 6:15:57 PM PST by Davea
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To: Heff
It means 5 more Boy Georges will be born next year. hehehehe
9 posted on 11/04/2003 6:16:01 PM PST by wattsmag2
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To: John H K
Dig your holes! We're all going to DIE!
10 posted on 11/04/2003 6:16:17 PM PST by scab4faa (Can't sleep.. the clowns will eat me... Can't sleep.. the clowns will eat me... Can't sleep..)
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To: Heff
explain this in terms that I might understand

Tin foil hats?

Sorry, I couldn't resist.

11 posted on 11/04/2003 6:16:29 PM PST by thinktwice
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To: John H K
I was kind of hoping it would be directed right at Earth, I wanted to see the Aurora in Oklahoma. Didn't see a thing during the other events.
12 posted on 11/04/2003 6:17:25 PM PST by Brett66
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To: John H K
Break out the SPF 5,000.
13 posted on 11/04/2003 6:17:52 PM PST by mewzilla
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To: John H K
Just curious - the really active sunspot groups will be back around the sun in a couple of weeks. What have amateur astronomers using small scopes equipped with hydrogen alpha filters been seeing from these solar events? Does it make sense to try and get my hands on a filter in case the sun is still jumpin' (scientific term) in a few weeks?
14 posted on 11/04/2003 6:17:53 PM PST by Zeppo
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Comment #15 Removed by Moderator

To: John H K
Repent all ye sinners, the day is drawn near...! :)


16 posted on 11/04/2003 6:21:05 PM PST by Brian S
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To: ConservativeMan55

It reads like the Income Tax Laws doesn't it?

Yes. But, there's a big difference. Someone with a decent education (not public schools) can figure out what this stuff means. Even degreed CPA's can't figure out the tax code.

 

17 posted on 11/04/2003 6:23:17 PM PST by Action-America (Best President: Reagan * Worst President: Klinton * Worst GOP President: Dubya)
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To: John H K
Man, My skin sure is dry and itchy lately.
18 posted on 11/04/2003 6:27:57 PM PST by right way right
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To: Brett66
The light was bright enough on the 29th Oct last, to silhouette clouds to about 30 degrees above the horizon. That was along U.S. Highway 50 at the Colorado/Kansas state line.
19 posted on 11/04/2003 6:30:14 PM PST by Dust in the Wind
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Comment #20 Removed by Moderator

To: Heff
"The X18+ solar flare has been associated with a high velocity FULL HALO coronal mass ejection. There IS an Earthward directed component. Estimated plane of sky velocity for this event is 2381 km/sec, although it is probable the true velocity is above 2400 km/sec because there is some evidence for acceleration of the CME."

This happened to me once after I drank a six-pack of Milwaukee's Best.

21 posted on 11/04/2003 6:38:29 PM PST by baltodog (I'm Polish. I'm left-handed. I'm a drummer. I demand reparations.)
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To: Dust in the Wind
In Boston, the light was bright enough to read a newspaper at 1:00 in the afternoon!!!
22 posted on 11/04/2003 6:39:00 PM PST by ClearCase_guy (France delenda est)
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Comment #23 Removed by Moderator

To: John H K
I'm convinced.

SOUNDS like

another

sign in the heavens

for our era

to me.
24 posted on 11/04/2003 6:41:59 PM PST by Quix (DEFEAT the lying, deceptive, satanic, commie, leftist, globalist oligarchy 1 associate at a time)
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To: Heff
No kidding! Can anyone explain what exactly is happening?

The Sun expelled a huge amount stuff - hot gas, charged particles, 'tater chip crumbs, etc.

The Sun farted in our general direction.

When the charged particles hit our atmosphere, things light up - Northern Lights (Aurora) - and if the fart was big enough it can electrically kill satelites, power grids (Canada a few years ago), lots of noise on radios - static - etc.

There you have it - what a CME is all about.

Dr. Sol

25 posted on 11/04/2003 6:43:07 PM PST by LasVegasMac (You tell 'em I'm coming! And you tell 'em Hell is coming with me!!!)
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To: John H K
It's all Bush's fault.
26 posted on 11/04/2003 6:43:22 PM PST by jimkress (America has become Soviet Union Lite)
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To: Dust in the Wind
Last Thursday night the aurora borealis was visible at 42oN. Quite bright, red, shifting sheets and a few streamers.

Current background is 14 microrem/hr...should be fun to watch as the planet turns.

27 posted on 11/04/2003 6:43:39 PM PST by Gorzaloon (Contents may have settled during shipping, but this tagline contains the stated product weight.)
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To: Heff
Ok...now explain this in terms that I might understand, please!

Think of a giant nuclear fireball ... and someone just stepped on the gas pedal to make it go faster.

28 posted on 11/04/2003 6:44:42 PM PST by Centurion2000 (Resolve to perform what you ought, perform without fail what you resolve.)
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To: John H K

29 posted on 11/04/2003 6:44:55 PM PST by tgslTakoma (Prayers sent for our troops in harm's way, and for those who have been killed.)
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To: ClearCase_guy
Yes sir; it's a clear case of neglecting to state that the time of day was 10 P.M.
You were probably also subject to a full overlay of that bright luminicity.
30 posted on 11/04/2003 6:47:03 PM PST by Dust in the Wind
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To: John H K
Well, at least with the graph from the satellite X-ray sensors it appeared to be an X-20 class event to me. Besides the X-18 last week, the largest I've recorded was back in the mid-90's with an X-8 as I recall (lot of data to sift thru to find the data plot.) Last week was the quickest shock wave I can recall, less than 24hrs to impact (typical 36-48hr.) Too bad the satellite sensors are saturated right now, I would like to see the shock wave hit on the solar wind speed indicator. Aurora? Still depends on the interplanitary magnetic field polarity (Bz) when the shock wave hits. Pretty certain there will be AU in the hi-latitudes. Question is, will the AU oval go south? Very interesting propagation effects last week on the VHF bands. Australia (VK6 & VK8) into the PNW on 50mHz late afternoon 31 October. Very unusual for so late in the solar Cycle. I've been following the data stream for 30 years myself as it is related to radio propagation (WWV rpts, then Web-data in the 90's.)
Regards, 6M op in CN85
31 posted on 11/04/2003 6:49:34 PM PST by Blue_Spark
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To: John H K
When is this supposed to take place?
32 posted on 11/04/2003 6:55:49 PM PST by yonif ("If I Forget Thee, O Jerusalem, Let My Right Hand Wither" - Psalms 137:5)
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To: John H K

"Big sunspot thing coming Earth's way. What's it all mean for me? What's it all mean for me? Do I have to still finish my Algebra homework?"

33 posted on 11/04/2003 6:56:25 PM PST by SamAdams76 (201.6 (-98.4) Homestretch to 200)
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To: Blue_Spark
Australia (VK6 & VK8) into the PNW on 50mHz late afternoon 31 October.

Really? Interesting post, Sparky. Keep 'em coming.

34 posted on 11/04/2003 6:59:02 PM PST by Semper911 (For some people, bread and circus are not enough. Hence, FreeRepublic.com)
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To: Big Giant Head; listenhillary
In case you're interested :-)
35 posted on 11/04/2003 7:01:54 PM PST by Marie Antoinette (Happily repopulating the midwest since 1991!)
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To: John H K
Scarey.

I'll close my venetian blinds and be sure to wear at least a 15 SPF sunscreen out doors this week.

36 posted on 11/04/2003 7:04:25 PM PST by Jorge
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To: Heff
Ok...now explain this in terms that I might understand, please!

Well, these solar flares emit both energy (light of various forms, X-rays) and matter.

The energy arrives at the speed of light, which is 8 minutes....that's why we know there's a flare. The primary measurement is X-Ray Flux, which is measured by instruments on our geostationary weather satellites.

This flare produced more X-Rays than any flare ever recorded. In fact, it "pegged" the instruments at the higest they could measure for 11 minutes.

The matter doesn't move nearly as fast. It's BILLIONS of tons of ionized gas...called a "Coronal Mass Ejection"

If a CME isn't pointed at Earth, you can sort of watch it shoot off to the side.

If a CME IS pointed at earth, it forms a "full halo."

Imagine someone stood twenty feet from you, pointing a garden hose directly at you with it set to form a wide spread.

And they held the handle down for a few seconds. You'd see the water form an expanding circle or "Halo" around the person shooting the water at you. And you'd know you'd get hit by the water in a few seconds.

Because we saw this from the CME, we know the Earth will get hit at least partially.

Fortunately, Earh has a protective magnetic field. However, these CMEs strongly change that field, which can lead to charged particles getting into the upper atmosphere and causing auroras, and the changing magnetic fields can result in satellites left exposed to damage, and possible damage to electronic and electric devices on earth.

37 posted on 11/04/2003 7:09:37 PM PST by John H K
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To: Marie Antoinette
I've been following the thread!
38 posted on 11/04/2003 7:10:19 PM PST by listenhillary
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To: John H K; yonif
As usual: Cloudy here in E. Wisconsin. No break since before this current spate of CMEs began. Sigh.

To keep up on solar activity and auroras, visit Spaceweather.com.

SOHO site calls it an "X-whatever" flare!


39 posted on 11/04/2003 7:12:48 PM PST by petuniasevan (No costume is complete without cat hair.)
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To: Victoria Delsoul; PatrickHenry; Quila; Rudder; donh; VadeRetro; RadioAstronomer; Travis McGee; ...





((((((growl)))))

40 posted on 11/04/2003 7:14:12 PM PST by Sabertooth (No Drivers' Licences for Illegal Aliens. Petition SB60. http://www.saveourlicense.com/n_home.htm)
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To: John H K
Gaaaah! Only one thing to do!


41 posted on 11/04/2003 7:14:52 PM PST by Luke Skyfreeper
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To: Marie Antoinette
Aurora and lunar eclipse would be too cool.

Saturday 7:06pm CST totality. Forecast clear to partly cloudy.

http://www.space.com/spacewatch/lunar_eclipse_2_031031.html
42 posted on 11/04/2003 7:15:10 PM PST by listenhillary
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To: Heff
Continuing on, the speed is simply the speed of all the junk headed out from the flare in the CME; 2,400 kilometers per second, which is basically halfway across the US each second.

They're still crunching the numbers to come up with a forecast arrival time but I'd guess it will end up being sometime tomorrow morning Eastern Time (not very well timed for Aurora in the US).

If there are any aurora it will be tomorrow night.
43 posted on 11/04/2003 7:15:36 PM PST by John H K
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To: Luke Skyfreeper
Or even better...


44 posted on 11/04/2003 7:15:56 PM PST by Luke Skyfreeper
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To: petuniasevan
The moon unfortunately is beginning to get very unfavorable for the aurora; getting towards a full moon. Really washes out a lot of the aurora.

I doubt there's really a chance of an amazing display for about another 18 days or so, when these sunspots (if they survive) are rotated back around the Sun and pointing towards Earth.
45 posted on 11/04/2003 7:18:17 PM PST by John H K
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To: LasVegasMac
Hoo Ya, I like that, indeed the Sun has farted in our general direction.

Monte Python and all that rot.

So let's draw back a pint and toast the sun and all get really pissed...

Sorry, my trips to Great Britain made me do it, not my fault..
46 posted on 11/04/2003 7:18:25 PM PST by Ogmios (Since when is 66 senate votes for judicial confirmations constitutional?)
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To: Heff
Can anyone explain what exactly is happening?

The sun did a wet burp. It's a very large one, but like most newborns, the aim was off. The earth only has overspray to deal with. That overspray may give some really pretty lights in the sky in northern lattitudes.

Our goose is not cooked. But it could have been.

/john

47 posted on 11/04/2003 7:23:30 PM PST by JRandomFreeper (I'm just a cook.)
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To: John H K
Global warming!
48 posted on 11/04/2003 7:25:45 PM PST by Imal (After Iraq, let's liberate California.)
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To: John H K
This is probably caused by Universal Warming. Ya think?
49 posted on 11/04/2003 7:26:44 PM PST by Ethyl
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To: right way right
Man, My skin sure is dry and itchy lately.

These are love blisters!

50 posted on 11/04/2003 7:28:07 PM PST by ovrtaxt ( http://www.fairtax.org **** Forget ANWR. Drill Israel !)
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