Predict the latest employment numbers - Vanity

Department of Labor ^ | 11/7/2003 | DOL

[Tennessean4Bush]

Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation

---

Reference Month	Release Date	Release Time	Unemployment Rate	Jobs Created
October 2003	Nov. 7, 2003	8:30 am
November 2003	Dec. 5, 2003	8:30 am
December 2003	Jan. 9, 2004	8:30 am
January 2004	Feb. 6, 2004	8:30 am
February 2004	Mar. 5, 2004	8:30 am
March 2004	Apr. 2, 2004	8:30 am
April 2004	May 7, 2004	8:30 am
May 2004	Jun. 4, 2004	8:30 am
June 2004	Jul. 2, 2004	8:30 am
July 2004	Aug. 6, 2004	8:30 am
August 2004	Sept. 3, 2004	8:30 am
September 2004	Oct. 8, 2004	8:30 am
October 2004	Nov. 5, 2004	8:30 am
Election

 

Last Modified Date: November 5, 2003

[Tennessean4Bush]

Post your predictions here on this thread. We will see who is closest on Friday at 8:35am.

[Tennessean4Bush]

My prediction:

Reference Month	Release Date	Release Time	Unemployment Rate	Jobs Created
October 2003	Nov. 7, 2003	8:30 am	6.08%	75,000
November 2003	Dec. 5, 2003	8:30 am
December 2003	Jan. 9, 2004	8:30 am
January 2004	Feb. 6, 2004	8:30 am
February 2004	Mar. 5, 2004	8:30 am
March 2004	Apr. 2, 2004	8:30 am
April 2004	May 7, 2004	8:30 am
May 2004	Jun. 4, 2004	8:30 am
June 2004	Jul. 2, 2004	8:30 am
July 2004	Aug. 6, 2004	8:30 am
August 2004	Sept. 3, 2004	8:30 am
September 2004	Oct. 8, 2004	8:30 am
October 2004	Nov. 5, 2004	8:30 am
Election

[So Cal Rocket]

Dear Mr. Tennessean4Bush:

Here is my prediction for October, 6.5% unemployment, -250,000 jobs lost.

With highest hopes,
Howard Dean

[Tennessean4Bush]

bttt mice elf

[Tennessean4Bush]

Ha! Mr. Dean, you have a whole lot more riding on this than me. :^)

[Coop]

6.1%

125,000 jobs added

(Okay, I stole these numbers from a panel of polled economists)

[Naspino]

Shouldn't we expect a hugh increase in jobs in Nov and Dec due to holiday shopping season?

[zencat]

6.1%

80,000 jobs added.

I'm hoping it comes in above the 100,000 mark, not only for the psychological impact, but particularly for those who will find work.

Cheers!

[Tennessean4Bush]

Yep. But I imagine that won't be reflected until the November stats.

[Tennessean4Bush]

Okay, I stole these numbers from a panel of polled economists

Do you have a link?

[donozark]

Unfortunately, the Unemployment rate will stay stuck @ 6.1%. Little change until end of Q1 of '04. And I SURE hope it lowers by then.

83K new jobs.

[Tennessean4Bush]

I read somewhere that it needs to be above 150,000 to start putting a real dent in the unemployment rate.

[Coop]

Do you have a link?

Why certainly! :-)

Payrolls may have expanded by 125,000 last month, Deutsche Bank estimates, more than twice as much as the 60,000 median projection in a Bloomberg News survey of 67 economists. The Labor Department is to report on October employment Friday. Unemployment may have held at 6.1 percent for a third straight month, the survey found.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=a0NxTkI.KeDY&refer=home

[Tennessean4Bush]

I think you are right. It will start coming down after the November and December numbers come in.

[VOR78]

Unemployment rate 6.0%

Net job gain of 110,000.

[Coop]

Shouldn't we expect a hugh increase in jobs in Nov and Dec due to holiday shopping season?

A quick Google search revealed that U.S. businesses shed 40K jobs last November.

[Kosh5]

Don't fail to ignore the psychological implications of how businesses are run in the U.S. The vast majority of mid to large companies run their businesses by a budget (or a variant - the "forecast"). Further, these companies run their cycles in quarter, halves, or years. As a result, intra-quarter changes seem unlikely to occur. Capital or personnel investments will occur on a regimented cycle rather than in immediate response to the economic climate.

We will get a seasonal pop in employment due to the holiday season around the corner. Sustained employment, however, is not likely to increase until sometime in Q1 of next year. I expect unemployment to hover around a seasonally-adjusted 6% and will move down at the tail end of Q1. By Q3 or Q4, unemployment will be down substantially. Unfortunately, the spectre of inflation will be upon us - and the Fed will be forced to raise rates which will damper economic growth.

In the end, I think the economic question will be: "how addicted did the economy become on abnormally low interest rates?" I think we will go through a caffeine-caliber withdrawal instead of a cocaine-caliber.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Reference Month	Release Date	Release Time	Unemployment Rate	Jobs Created
October 2003	Nov. 7, 2003	8:30 am	6.1%	75,000
November 2003	Dec. 5, 2003	8:30 am	6.0%
December 2003	Jan. 9, 2004	8:30 am	6.0%
January 2004	Feb. 6, 2004	8:30 am	5.9%
February 2004	Mar. 5, 2004	8:30 am	5.9%
March 2004	Apr. 2, 2004	8:30 am	5.7%
April 2004	May 7, 2004	8:30 am	5.7%
May 2004	Jun. 4, 2004	8:30 am	5.7%
June 2004	Jul. 2, 2004	8:30 am	5.7%
July 2004	Aug. 6, 2004	8:30 am	5.6%
August 2004	Sept. 3, 2004	8:30 am	5.6%
September 2004	Oct. 8, 2004	8:30 am	5.5%
October 2004	Nov. 5, 2004	8:30 am	5.5%
Election

[donozark]

I certainly hope you predictions are accurate. However, the Blue Chip survey of economics predicts far less progress in lowering unemployment rate. In fact, they see an uptick to 6.2%, followed by a slow downturn beginning in Q2/Q3. No real progrss until Q4.

I fall somehere in between. I know several people that work very long hours. Their employers just won't hire. Afraid of "shaky economy." They'd rather pay OT than hire new workers. Of course they can't keep this up much longer....

[GraniteStateConservative]

My prediction is an optimistic one. I acknowledge that. I think it's reasonable, though optimistic.