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IAEA at odds with US over Iran

Finacial Times
By Mark Huband in London and Bayan Rahman in Tokyo
Published: November 14 2003 4:00 | Last Updated: November 14 2003 4:00

The UN's nuclear watchdog yesterday rejected US criticism of a crucial report on Iran's nuclear programme, which stated that no evidence had been found that Iran had been trying to build a nuclear bomb.

John Bolton, US undersecretary of state, condemned the report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) this week, saying that the absence of evidence was "simply impossible to believe".

Diplomats have been seeking to defuse a row between the hawkish Mr Bolton and the IAEA over the issue. "We are getting indications that Mr Bolton's comments don't necessarily reflect the US line. He is something of a loose cannon," said a western diplomat yesterday.

The report, which will be presented to the IAEA board on November 20, underlines that the IAEA itself remains uncertain of Iran's intentions.

While acknowledging the lack of evidence of nuclear weapons programmes, the report states: "Given Iran's past pattern of concealment, it will take some time before the agency is able to conclude that Iran's nuclear programme is exclusively for peaceful purposes."

"It's very difficult at this point to draw any conclusions about Iran's intentions," said a senior diplomat. "But I think everybody agrees that the most effective way to continue dealing with this is to keep the IAEA inspectors fully engaged in Iran."

The nuclear issue will be on the agenda today when Kamal Kharrazi, Iran's foreign minister, holds talks with Junichiro Koizumi, the Japanese prime minister, in Tokyo.

"We certainly would like to encourage Iran to be forthcoming and to make itself open to outside inspection," a Japanese foreign ministry official said yesterday.

US suspicions of Iran's nuclear programme have forced Japan to delay signing a $2bn oil deal.

Japan won first negotiating rights to the Azadegan oilfield in what was seen as a diplomatic feat that would help its drive to secure energy supplies. But under US pressure, it allowed the June deadline to lapse without signing an agreement and surprised Tehran by sponsoring the IAEA resolution that pushed Iran to come clean on its nuclear programme.

A person close to the Japanese government's energy negotiations said: "Iran would like to know whether Japan is still serious [about Azadegan] after it agreed in principle to sign up to the IAEA's stricter agreement." But Japanese officials indicated that Iran would need to implement its pledge to co-operate before any agreement could be concluded.

Iran has recently entered talks with French, Chinese and other international oil companies but has continued to negotiate with Japan in the hopes that an agreement would lead to further Japanese investment.

Mohammad Khatami, Iran's president, was reported last month as saying that Japan still had priority in the talks even though its first-negotiating rights had lapsed.

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1066565883166

Diplomacy could work with North Korea and Iran, says Bush

Channelnewsasia.com
Posted: 14 November 2003 1031 hrs

LONDON, : US President George W. Bush indicated a softening of stance against so-called rogue states Iran and North Korea by saying that military action was not the only way to deal with problems.

"Not every situation needs to be resolved through military action. And I would cite to you North Korea and Iran," Bush said in an interview with three British news organisations ahead of a state visit to London next week.

"The case in Iraq was unique, is unique, because the world, for over a decade, had spoken. The diplomatic route was tried," Bush said in the interview with London's Financial Times and Daily Telegraph newspapers and Britain's domestic Press Association news agency.

On Iran -- which has now said it will suspend its uranium enrichment programme and cooperate fully with the UN nuclear watchdog -- Bush said: "The Iranians must hear from a unified world that it is unacceptable for them to develop a nuclear weapon."

Bush thanked Britain, France and Germany for the diplomatic efforts that led to Iran promising to comply with its international obligations.

Bush said he realised the bi-lateral approach to North Korea had not worked "so I went and worked with the Chinese and convinced the Chinese through a variety of means of arguments that they need to be involved".

He said that with the further involvement of Russia, South Korea, Japan and the US "you've got five nations saying the same message to Kim Jong-il: we expect you not to develop a nuclear weapons programme.

"There are ways to rally constituencies and nations towards a common objective, which is precisely what we are doing."

The last round of talks involving the United States, China, North Korea, South Korea, Japan and Russia ended inconclusively in August.

North Korea wants a non-aggression pact with Washington and economic aid in exchange for ending its nuclear weapons program.

Bush does not want to go that far, saying he will not be blackmailed by Pyongyang, though he has mooted offering security guarantees to the Stalinist state, perhaps in a regional framework, in return for a complete and verifiable end to its nuclear program.

- AFP

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world/view/57176/1/.html

Recipe for Disaster
Asking the right Iran questions.

By Amir Taheri
Natinal Review Online
November 14, 2003, 9:18 a.m.

Is Iran producing nuclear weapons?

Tehran says: No.

Washington says: Yes

The European Union says: Maybe.

And next week the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is expected to say: Maybe yes, maybe not!

Why are there such divergent views on an issue that, given the wealth of data now at the disposal of the IAEA, should not be so hard to handle?

Part of the confusion is because the wrong question is asked.

Iran is right in saying that it is not producing nuclear weapons. What Iran is doing is to set up all the technical, industrial, and materiel means needed to produce such weapons, if and when it decides to do so.

In other words, while not producing nuclear weapons right now, Iran has a nuclear program designed to make such weapons within 18 months. It is like a chef who brings in all that is needed for making a soup but does not actually start the cooking until he knows when the guests will be coming.

With a brief interruption in the post-Revolution era, this has been Iran's policy since 1970.

In the past three decades Iran has trained and mobilized the scientists and technicians needed, built the research centers required, and set up structures for a complete nuclear cycle, from raw materials to the finished product. In that sense Iran's nuclear program maybe better structured than those of several countries, including Pakistan, Ukraine, Serbia, and Brazil that helped with the various stages of its development. Iran has its own uranium reserves, regarded as among the richest in the world, and has a history of nuclear research that dates back to 1955.

Part of the Iranian national defense doctrine is based on the capacity to produce and deploy nuclear weapons within a brief time span.

Before the revolution Iran regarded its northern neighbor, the Soviet Union, as the sole serious threat to its national security. The Iranian war strategy was based on a scenario in which a Soviet invasion would begin with conventional weapons only. In that case Iran would withdraw its forces from its northern provinces, almost a third of its territory, to regroup them across the Zagross mountain range. After that Iran would threaten to use its nuclear weapons against Soviet occupation forces.

The hope was that Soviet leaders, faced with the high cost of a nuclear exchange would agree to withdraw their troops from the occupied provinces.

That scenario was based on the 1945-46 fight between Tehran and Moscow over the Iranian provinces of Azerbaijan and Kurdistan that had been under Soviet occupation since 1941. At that time the Soviets did not yet have nuclear weapons, and a threat from the Truman administration in Washington was sufficient to persuade Stalin that it was prudent to withdraw from Iran.

After the revolution, Iran's national defense doctrine has been based on the assumption that it will, one day, fight a war with the United States plus its Arab allies and Israel.

The central assumption of Iranian strategists is that the U.S. cannot sustain a long war. It is, therefore, necessary to pin down its forces and raise the kill-die ratio to levels unacceptable by the American public. In the meantime, Iran would put its nuclear-weapons program in high gear, and brandish the threat of nuclear war as a means of forcing the U.S. to accept a ceasefire and withdraw its forces from whatever chunk of Iranian territory they may have seized.

Former President Hashemi Rafsanjani has publicly evoked the possibility of using nuclear weapons against Washington's regional allies, especially Israel.

"In a nuclear duel in the region, Israel may kill 100 million Muslims," Rafsanjani said in a speech in Tehran in October 2000. "Muslims can sustain such casualties, knowing that, in exchange, there would be no Israel on the map."

Iran's top military commander, General Rahim Safavi, and Defence Minister Rear-Admiral Ali Shamkhani have also spoken about a military clash with the United States as the only serious threat to the Khomeinist regime in Tehran.

They believe they have three trump cards to play.

The first is that Iran has a demographic reserve of some 20 million people and is thus capable of sustaining levels of casualties unthinkable for Americans.

The second is that Iran is already the missile superpower of the Middle East and could target all of Washington's allies in the region.

"We have enough missiles for a rain of death the kind of which no one has imagined in this part of the world," Shamkhani claimed in a speech in Tehran in 1999.

Iran's third trump card is its nuclear program. Without it the other two cards will not have the effect desired, especially if the U.S. could unleash its new generation of low-grade nuclear weapons designed for battlefield use.

Hamid Zomorrodi, an Iranian strategy expert says it is unlikely that Iran will cripple its national defence doctrine by abandoning its nuclear aspect.

The real issue is not the bomb," he says. "Regardless of who rules in Tehran, Iran is sure to have nuclear weapons whenever its leaders decide to have them. The real issue is who will be in control of those weapons and who will be their target."

The view is echoed by Gary Samore, the nuclear expert in the Institute for International Strategic Studies in London.

"There is no doubt that Iran has a nuclear weapons programme," he says. "No amount of diplomatic manoeuvring and political pressure is likely to persuade Iran to drop what has become a top national priority."

Washington hawks believe that the only realistic policy towards Iran is one of regime change before the Khomeinists produce their nuclear arsenal. They believe this could be achieved with a mixture of military and diplomatic pressure combined with moral and material support for the pro-democracy movement in Iran.

The Europeans, however, fear that any attempt even at soft regime change may push the Khomeinists on the offensive in Afghanistan, the Persian Gulf, Iraq, the Caucasus, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories.

"The Americans are right in asserting that Iran is the world's terrorism superpower," says Zomorrodi. "Strangely, however, they believe that Iran would not use its terrorism resources if and when its back is to the wall. That is a dangerous assumption. "

Olivier Roy, a French specialist on Iran, agrees.

He says it is wrong to believe that the tactic used against Saddam Hussein could also be employed against the Khomeinists in Tehran.

Saddam had no network of support in the region whereas the Iranian regime does and is thus in a position to make a great deal of trouble for the US and its allies.

On November 20, the International Atomic Energy Agency will submit its report on Iran to the United Nations' Security Council. An internal IAEA report on the subject, however, shows that Iran will almost certainly be charged with violating aspects of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) which it signed in 1970. The accumulation of detail in the report and in two previous assessments from Dr ElBaradei this year paints a picture of a long-term, sophisticated program running since the mid-1980s. Only this year did the rest of the world obtain a glimpse of the Iranian projects.

"Iran has now acknowledged that it has been developing, for 18 years, a uranium centrifuge enrichment programme, and, for 12 years, a laser enrichment programme," the report said.

Four unnamed foreign countries had helped the Iranians with know-how and equipment. Other sources have identified the countries as Pakistan, Serbia, Ukraine, and North Korea.

ElBaradei also said his inspectors had not yet resolved the origin of the weapons-grade uranium traces found at a Tehran plant and the Natanz enrichment complex. He insisted that to settle the plethora of open questions about the Iranian programmes, the IAEA would need "a particularly robust verification system," requiring "full transparency and openness on the part of Iran".

At first Iran said it had kept Natanz secret because it had developed the entire project with domestic technology which it feared might be "stolen" by others. But when traces of highly enriched uranium were found, Iran claimed that the machines installed at Natanz had been bought second-hand from abroad, and may have been used to produce weapons' grade materiel in their country of origin. IAEA inspectors also found the following:

Plutonium: Manufactured at a Tehran laboratory between 1988 and 1992, despite previous denials from Iran. Very small quantity extracted, not enough for a bomb. But Iranian scientists now know how to manufacture bomb-grade plutonium. If Iran does not plan to make any bombs there is no reason why it should produce any plutonium.

Laser uranium enrichment: Under U.N. questioning in October, Iran admitted it had built a pilot laser-enrichment facility at Lashkar Abad, northwest of Tehran in 1999. Four unnamed countries have been involved in supplying equipment and know-how for 20 years. The Iranians admit banned experiments there until this year. They say the facility was dismantled in May. Last month U.N. inspectors' requests to examine equipment and talk to the scientists were "deferred by Iran."

Uranium metal conversion: Uranium metal is most commonly used for nuclear missiles. Earlier discoveries of metal conversion work were explained away by the Iranians as "shielding material." In October they said the uranium metal was for use in the previously undisclosed laser-enrichment project.

Weapons' grade uranium: The IAEA's previous report disclosed traces of two types of weapons-grade uranium at the underground centrifuge enrichment plant at Natanz. The IAEA then reported traces of weapons-grade uranium at the Kalaye electric company in Tehran.

Heavy water: Iran has been working on heavy water, needed to manufacture plutonium, at a secret facility in Arak, west of Tehran since 1995. Having denied the existence of the facility, Iran admitted it last month but has refused to allow IAEA inspectors to visit it.

The real question is: Can the world accept the present Iranian regime with nuclear weapons?

It is clear that the answer cannot come from the IAEA.

— Amir Taheri, an NRO contributor, is an Iranian author of ten books on the Middle East and Islam. He's available through www.benadorassociates.com.

http://www.nationalreview.com/nr_comment/taheri200311140918.asp

"Disappearance" of Ahmad Batebi

November 14, 2003
AI
Amnesty International

Student activist Ahmad Batebi has reportedly "disappeared" while on leave from prison, following a meeting with a United Nations (UN) official on 8 November. Amnesty International is gravely concerned for his safety.

Ahmad Batebi is serving a ten-year prison sentence in connection with his participation in student-led demonstrations in the capital Tehran in 1999. On 20 October 2003 he began a twenty-day period of leave (morakhasi) from Tehran's Evin Prison, reportedly for medical reasons, though no further information is known about his health. He was scheduled to return to prison on 10 November.

On 8 November, Ahmad Batebi reportedly met with Ambeyi Ligabo, the UN Special Rapporteur on Freedom of Expression, who was visiting Iran. Following the meeting, Ahmad Batebi allegedly then set out with friends for Tehran University, where he was to take part in an iftar, or the breaking of the Ramadan fast.

According to reports, Ahmad Batebi's father Mohammad Baqer Batebi became concerned for his son's safety after two hours, as he had not contacted his family and was not answering his mobile telephone. Mohammad Baqer Batebi then reportedly attempted to locate Ahmad Batebi by contacting friends, judicial officials and prison officials, but without success. There has been no further information on Ahmad Batebi's whereabouts.

Mohammad Baqer Batebi reportedly stated on 11 November that several unidentified people had repeatedly contacted his family and made death threats against Ahmad Batebi and other family members. Mohammad Baqer Batebi allegedly also said that if he did not receive an unambiguous reply regarding his son's whereabouts, and assurances regarding his safety, then he would refer the matter to human rights organizations.

BACKGROUND INFORMATION

Ahmad Batebi, then a student of film-making at Tehran University, was detained on 7 July 1999, during student-led demonstrations against the closure of the newspaper Salam (Peace). Like thousands of other students, he took part in the protests. It is widely believed that international publication of a photograph of Ahmad Batebi holding up the bloodied shirt of a fellow student who had been injured in the demonstration aggravated judicial officials, prejudicing consideration of his case. While in detention, he was ordered to confess to false allegations and under extreme duress, he signed a "confession" fearing that his family would be in danger.

He was sentenced to death on charges relating to endangering national security following an unfair and secret trial by a Revolutionary Court in Tehran. His sentence was later commuted on appeal to 15 years' imprisonment and has since been reduced to 10 years.

A letter dated 4 February 2003 and attributed to Ahmad Batebi and other student prisoners has been widely distributed. In the letter the students state that:

"We want to show our respect for the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, Universal Peace, Non-violence [sic], Environmental Protection, Permanent Progress, and all the other noble covenants sanctioned by the mankind. We hope to alleviate despotism and totalitarianism, setting the vote of the people as the gauge for governance.

We aspire to redeem the rights of our sisters which have been ignored for so long, and establish an all encompassing equality between men and women. We want to [...] promote [the] Persian creed of 'good deeds', 'good speech' and 'good thoughts'. We have bore [sic] the burden of endless tortures. We actually witnessed executions of our friends..."

Amnesty International continues to campaign on behalf of Ahmad Batebi (see web action, http://web.amnesty.org/web/content.nsf/pages/gbr_iran )

In October and November 1998, several prominent Iranian writers, who had all previously been questioned by government authorities in connection with their attempt to establish an independent writers association also"disappeared". Four of them, including the leader of the Iran Nation party (Hezb-e Mellat-e Iran), and his wife were later found dead. Intelligence officials were tried and found guilty in connection with at least two of the murders, following a flawed trial which denied the defendants the right to a full defence.

RECOMMENDED ACTION: Please send appeals to arrive as quickly as possible, in Persian, English, French or your own language:

- expressing concern for the safety of Ahmad Batebi, who has not been seen since 8 November;

- urging police and judicial officials to conduct an immediate enquiry into the circumstances surrounding the reported "disappearance" of Ahmad Batebi, to determine whether any state-supported or tolerated bodies may have been responsible for his "disappearance";

- urging judicial, intelligence and prison officials to conduct an urgent review of prisoners to determine whether Ahmad Batebi may have been transferred to places under their respective jurisdiction, and if so, to confirm his whereabouts and physical and mental condition;

- in case Ahmad Batebi is determined to have been detained, reminding officials of their obligations in respect to the administration of justice that all detainees should be made aware of the reasons for their arrest and have prompt access to family, legal representation and medical treatment if required, in keeping with Articles 9 and 14, respectfully, of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), to which Iran is a state party.

http://web.amnesty.org/web/content.nsf/pages/gbr_iran

EU Big 3 Draft Tough Nuke Resolution on Iran

November 14, 2003
Reuters
Louis Charbonneau

VIENNA -- France, Germany and Britain are preparing a toughly-worded resolution criticising Iran for concealing sensitive nuclear technology for decades from the United Nations nuclear watchdog.

On November 20, the International Atomic Energy Agency's board of governors meets to discuss an IAEA report on Iran's nuclear programme, detailing 18 years of failures by Iran to inform the agency of all its atomic activities and facilities.

The United States, which says Iran's nuclear programme is a front to build The Bomb, wants the board to declare Iran in breach of its obligations under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which would require it to report Tehran to the U.N. Security Council for possible economic sanctions.

A Western diplomat told Reuters on condition of anonymity that European, Latin American and most board members from the Non-Aligned Movement had "a more or less common opinion" against reporting Iran to the council.

"It would be extremely difficult, or simply impossible to reach a consensus on non-compliance (with the NPT)," the diplomat said, adding most board members favoured a "strongly worded resolution that sends a very strong message" to Iran.

Diplomats said France, Germany and Britain had indicated they were already working on such a draft resolution, though they said nothing had been circulated yet.

It was unclear whether the proposal would be enough to satisfy the United States and its allies taking a similarly tough line on the Iran issue -- Canada and Australia.

But a diplomat who follows the IAEA closely questioned the value of such a proposal: "How sharply-worded is a resolution that does not contain the word non-compliance?"

Tehran warned on Thursday the crisis surrounding Iran's nuclear programme could escalate if the IAEA finds it in breach of its NPT obligations and reports it to the Security Council.

"Things could very easily get out of control," Iran's ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Akbar Salehi, told Reuters, adding that "it could lead to unpredictable consequences".

Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi told reporters in Japan: "We are strongly determined on complete transparency. We have cooperated even more than the IAEA expected."

"AMERICA IS LIKE SADDAM"

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei lashed out at U.S. President George W. Bush at Friday prayers.

"Americans killed hundreds of innocent people in Afghanistan and they continue to attack and kill Iraqi civilians," Khamenei, Iran's most powerful figure, told thousands of worshippers.

Khamenei said Washington's occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq had fuelled anti-American sentiment throughout the region.

"They are suppressing the Iraqi people exactly like Saddam Hussein used to," said the black-turbaned senior cleric.

PAKISTAN AND IRAN DENY COOPERATION

Pakistan, a nuclear weapons state that has refused to sign the NPT, denied a report in a newspaper that said Iran had confirmed Pakistan had helped it with its nuclear programme.

A Pakistan foreign ministry statement called the report "totally baseless".

"These unsubstantiated reports occur periodically in some sections of the Western media and they reflect their long-standing anti-Muslim bias," the statement said.

Salehi also rejected the charge, but he did not rule out that "intermediaries" may have sold Iran uranium enrichment centrifuge parts originating from Pakistan.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/031114/325/edz9o.html

Khamenei Attacks U.S.-occupation of Iraq

November 14, 2003
The Associated Press
MSNBC News

TEHRAN -- Iran's supreme leader said Friday that America's military occupation of Iraq was failing and criticized President Bush's call for greater democracy in the Middle East.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whose hard-line Islamic establishment has been accused by the United States of not doing enough to prevent anti-American forces from entering neighboring Iraq, said U.S. troops ''are being slapped in the face every day by Iraqis.''

''They (the United States) invaded Iraq with a promise to free its people but they have created a deplorable situation there,'' Khamenei told tens of thousands of worshippers at Tehran's Grand Mosque during a Friday prayer sermon.

U.S. forces are coming under increased resistance from forces inside Iraq, with more than 50 coalition soldiers killed this month.

Khamenei said the Americans ''overthrew an Iraqi dictator (Saddam Hussein) and installed a foreign dictator (U.S. provisional authority chief L. Paul Bremer) in his place.''

Khamenei's comments come as Iran tries to disprove U.S. claims that it is pursuing a nuclear weapons program. The dispute has further aggravated longstanding tensions in U.S.-Iranian relations.

Khamenei also assailed Bush's recent appeal to Middle Eastern states, particularly Iran, to do more to promote democratic reform.

''People who so openly disregard the rights of nations and views are ... mistaken to regard themselves as the custodians of democracy,'' the Iranian leader said.

Khamenei also used his mosque sermon to defend Iranian hard-line authorities who have cracked down on reformist publications, saying U.S. backers in Iran are seeking to use the country's press to bring down the ruling Islamic establishment.

The crackdown has put nearly 100 publications out of operation over the last 3½ years for criticizing the rule of Iran's unelected hard-liners.

''Anybody provoking a psychological war against the (Iranian) establishment works for the U.S., no matter (if) he receives money for this or works (for) free,'' the leader said.

Unelected hard-liners control the levers of power in Iran and have blocked most attempts by the elected government to reform the country's Islamic regime. Khamenei has final say in all matters.

http://famulus.msnbc.com/FamulusIntl/ap11-14-071634.asp?reg=MIDEAST

Annan welcomes Iran inspections

TheAge.com.au
November 15, 2003 - 10:05AM

UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan welcomed Iran's recent decision to accept intensified nuclear inspections and suspend all uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities.

He encouraged the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Iranian government "and the other governments that have been working with Iran on this matter to continue their efforts in this respect", UN spokesman Fred Eckhard said.

In a report detailing two decades of covert Iranian nuclear activity, the IAEA said Iran was guilty of numerous secret experiments, including uranium enrichment and the production of small amounts of plutonium that effectively put the nation in violation of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty.

But the report, presented this week to the IAEA's board of governors, also praised Tehran for cooperation and openness. It said the UN nuclear watchdog had found "no evidence" of an Iranian nuclear weapons program.

That stance contradicts the American view that Tehran is not only trying to make nuclear weapons but could be just years away from putting nuclear warheads on missiles capable of reaching Israel.

Eckhard said he could not elaborate further, when pressed as to whether the secretary-general believed Iran has been deliberately concealing efforts to develop nuclear weapons or whether it was cooperating sufficiently for discussions with the IAEA to continue.

In a brief statement, Eckhard said, "The secretary-general welcomes the recent decision by the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran to conclude the Additional Protocol, to act in accordance with its provisions until its entry into force, and to suspend all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities."

The additional protocol to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty would allow IAEA inspectors to perform snap inspections and otherwise extend their probe of Iranian nuclear activities that had previously been off-limits.

By putting a hold on uranium enrichment, Iran could suspend concerns that it is producing fissile material for nuclear weapons.

Uranium in its natural form does not have a sufficiently high concentration of fissionable isotopes to be used in either nuclear reactors or weapons.

Tehran says it has enriched uranium only to non-weapons levels, as part of purely peaceful nuclear programs meant to produce power as its oil stocks decline.

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/11/15/1068674419206.html

Iran pursues plans for heavy water reactor

Jane's - By Jack Boureston and Charles Mahaffey
Nov 14, 2003

Iran has admitted it is in the final phase of designing a 40MW heavy water nuclear reactor at Arak. Officials have said that the basic design of the reactor, called the IR-40, has already been completed, and that work has started on a more detailed design. Construction work is due to begin in early 2004. If this is the case, past historical data on the construction of heavy water reactors suggests that the IR-40 could be completed by 2009.

Although the Atomic Energy Agency of Iran has provided technical specifications of the reactor to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) for review, the international community remains deeply concerned over the intended purpose of IR-40, its possible configuration and its capabilities.

Iran has stated that the IR-40 will be used for research and development, radioisotope production, and training. One main advantage of a heavy water reactor is the high absorption factor of heavy water (D2O) over other moderators. This translates into a larger number of isotopes being produced to satisfy the increasing isotope requirements in the medical and agricultural industries.

However, a heavy water reactor is among the most dangerous in existence from a proliferation perspective. One reason is that the low neutron cross section of heavy water allows a high number of U238 (uranium-238 isotope) atoms to absorb neutrons, resulting in the production of a greater quantity and better quality of plutonium product from a heavy water reactor compared to a light water reactor. According to David Albright, Director of the Institute for Science and International Security, the IR-40 will be able to produce 8-10kg of plutonium per year - approximately one to two bombs' worth of nuclear material. The IAEA holds that 8kg of plutonium constitutes a "significant quantity" - enough to build a nuclear weapon.

However, such estimates of yield assume that the IR-40 will be running at full power throughout the year and the total amount of spent fuel will be used for plutonium production. Also, such estimates of plutonium yield are not realistic unless the Iranians construct a plutonium separation (reprocessing) facility of sufficient size and capacity to support a plutonium-based weapons programme. That facility, if properly designed, might also accommodate the irradiated fuel from the Bushehr reactor, should Iran decide not to return it to Russia.

It is also possible that the Iranians could separate the spent fuel from the IR-40 and clandestinely hide portions of separated plutonium for use in a weapon at a later date. In this case, it would take longer to finally get to a "significant quantity" of plutonium. Either way, this reactor is a cause for concern, given the fact that similar reactors have been used to produce plutonium in other countries in the past; Israel and India used reactors of comparable design to the IR-40 that were capable of generating similar levels of thermal power to produce their first fission bombs.

http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_3570.shtml

KHAMENEH’I REJECTED BUSH’S OLIVE BRANCH

TEHRAN 14 Nov. (IPS)

The Islamic Republic rejected out hand the United States’ olive branch, saying anyone works to promote Americans policies is acting against the interests of Iran and Islam.

"Anybody provoking a psychological war against the (Iranian) establishment works for the U.S., no matter (if) he receives money for this or works (for) free", Ayatollah Ali Khameneh’i, the leader of the Islamic Republic told worshippers in Tehran on Friday.

His comments came hours after US President George W. Bush had indicated a softening of stance against Iran and North Korea by saying that military action was not the only way to deal with problems.

"Not every situation needs to be resolved through military action. And I would cite to you North Korea and Iran, -- the two regimes he had labeled as "rogue states" --" Bush said in an interview with three British newspapers ahead of a state visit to London next week.

"The case in Iraq was unique, is unique, because the world, for over a decade, had spoken. The diplomatic route was tried," Bush said in the interview with London's Financial Times and Daily Telegraph newspapers and Britain's domestic Press Association news agency.

On Iran, Bush said: "The Iranians must hear from a unified world that it is unacceptable for them to develop a nuclear weapon".

Repeating his endless anti US diatribes, Khameneh’i lashed out at President Bush, saying "Americans killed hundreds of innocent people in Afghanistan and they continue to attack and kill Iraqi civilians".

Khameneh’i said Washington's occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq had fueled anti-American sentiment throughout the region.

"They are suppressing the Iraqi people exactly like Saddam Hussein", he said, adding "The Americans "overthrew an Iraqi dictator and installed a foreign dictator in his place".

Bush thanked Britain, France and Germany for the diplomatic efforts that led to Iran promising to comply with its international obligations.

Europe’s three big troika were reported on Friday preparing a toughly-worded resolution criticizing Iran for concealing sensitive nuclear technology for decades from the United Nations nuclear watchdog, diplomats said Friday.

Iran officially said on 21 September to foreign ministers of France, Germany and Britain that it would sign the additional Protocol to the Non Proliferation Treaty and suspend all its uranium enriching activities.

Iran’s letter to that undertaking was officially handed over to Dr Mohammad el-Bradeh’i, the Egyptian Director of the Vienna-based IAEA last week.

On November 20, the International Atomic Energy Agency's board of governors meets to discuss an IAEA report on Iran's nuclear program, detailing 18 years of failures by Iran to inform the agency of all its atomic activities and facilities.

But the report also says that Iran has lately cooperated more closely with the United Nations nuclear watchdog and atomic inspectors have found no prove that Tehran was building nuclear

Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi told reporters in Japan: "We are strongly determined on complete transparency. We have cooperated even more than the IAEA expected", he said.

However, the report surprised Washington, insisting that Iran's nuclear program is a front to build the bomb and wants the board to declare Iran in breach of its obligations under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which would require it to report Tehran to the U.N. Security Council for possible economic sanctions.

A Western diplomat told the British news agency "Reuters" on condition of anonymity that European, Latin American and most board members from the Non-Aligned Movement had "a more or less common opinion" against reporting Iran to the Council.

"It would be extremely difficult, or simply impossible to reach a consensus on non-compliance (with the NPT)," the diplomat said, adding most board members favored a "strongly worded resolution that sends a very strong message" to Iran.

Diplomats said France, Germany and Britain had indicated they were already working on such a draft resolution, though they said nothing had been circulated yet.

It was unclear whether the proposal would be enough to satisfy the United States and its allies taking a similarly tough line on the Iran issue -- Canada and Australia.

But a diplomat who follows the IAEA closely questioned the value of such a proposal: "How sharply-worded is a resolution that does not contain the word non-compliance?"

Tehran warned Thursday the crisis surrounding Iran's nuclear program could escalate if the IAEA finds it in breach of its NPT obligations and reports it to the Security Council.

"Things could very easily get out of control," Iran's ambassador to the IAEA, Ali Akbar Salehi, told Reuters, adding that "it could lead to unpredictable consequences".

Salehi also rejected the charge, but he did not rule out that "intermediaries" may have sold Iran uranium enrichment centrifuge parts originating from Pakistan.

Pakistan, a nuclear weapons state that has refused to sign the NPT, denied a report in a British newspaper that said Iran had confirmed Pakistan had helped it with its nuclear program.

A Pakistan foreign ministry statement called the report "totally baseless."

"These unsubstantiated reports occur periodically in some sections of the Western media and they reflect their long-standing anti-Muslim bias", the statement said.

Khameneh’i also repeated his usual attack on Iranian independent press and all those who back opening dialogue with Washington, saying U.S. backers in Iran are seeking to use the country's press to bring down the ruling Islamic establishment.

"I warned some years ago that some newspapers are becoming bases for the enemy. They are now taking the mask away from their faces", Khameneh’i added without naming the accused press, most of them close to the reformists.

On his order, the Judiciary has shut over 100 publications and jailed a dozen of leading journalists, intellectuals and scholars in the last 3 years for criticizing the rule of Iran's unelected hard-liners. ENDS US IRAN 141103

http://www.iran-press-service.com/articles_2003/Nov-2003/us_iran_141103.htm