Posted on 11/30/2003 7:17:33 PM PST by RussianConservative
The European Union is squeezing Russia out of the former Soviet republics. As a result, Russia might have to fight a war on its territory, again
The European Union has 'officially' admitted that Brussels was behind the breakdown of Russia's plan to settle the Transnistria-Moldova conflict. The Council of Europe issued a statement on Thursday quoting a conversation between Council of Europe Secretary General Walter Schwimmer and Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin. Mr. Schwimmer thanked Mr. Voronin for his "responsible" decision to reject Moscow's plan to settle the Transnistria-Moldova conflict. According to this plan, Russian troops would remain in the region until 2020. Russia suggested that Moldova should be transformed into the Federative Republic of Moldova, which would include Moldova, Transnistria and Gagauzia. A Russian military contingent would ensure peace in the republic. The peace plan was approved by Moldova and Transnistria. However, Moldovan President Voronin refused to sign it at the last moment, under pressure from the European Union and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). Meanwhile, the EU is going to send troops to Moldova. According to analysts, the European Union, which has not yet 'digested' the former members of the Warsaw pact, is seeking to squeeze Russia out of the former Soviet republics. Next on the list are Ukraine, Belarus, the Caucasian and Central Asian republics. This expansionist policy could result in a new military conflict between Russia and Europe.
The Russian delegation at the peace talks in Moldova was headed by Dmitry Kozak, Deputy Chief of Staff to the Russian President. Mr. Kozak was shuttling between Kishinev and Tiraspol (capital of Transnistria) for a week, trying to bring the conflicting positions together. On Monday, the Russia-sponsored peace plan was approved by Moldova and Transnistria. The Presidential Administration started preparing Vladimir Putin's visit to Moldova, which was scheduled for Tuesday. Valuable gifts were prepared for Moldovan and Transnistrian officials, and reports appeared that Russia would write off hundreds of millions of dollars owed to it by Moldova. However, the visit was cancelled at the last moment. OSCE President Jaap de Hoop Scheffer called Mr. Voronin on Monday evening. On Tuesday morning, the Moldovan leader issued a statement saying that the plan should first be coordinated with the EU. "Our course for European integration implies that the plan should be approved by European organizations, in the first place, the OSCE," it is said in the statement.
Apparently, Moscow was placed in a very awkward position. Mr. Kozak issued a strongly worded statement, accusing Moldovan authorities of short-sightedness and yielding to pressure from the West. "This is a very unpleasant event for Russia," says Dmitry Trenin of Moscow Carnegie Center. "It raises the issue of the West's policy on post-Soviet space. In fact, the plan approved by President Putin was obstructed. In its turn, Moscow sees the actions of the West and the EU in Moldova as directed against Russia's interests," he added. Indeed, EU officials have repeatedly stated Brussels' intention of sending troops to Moldova, and insisted on the withdrawal of the Russian military contingent from Transnistria.
According to experts, the EU's move is nothing other than preparations for a possible military conflict with Russia, which will be difficult to avoid, given Europe's expansionist policy. "Both the European Union, especially the German-French bloc, and the US are preparing for a future war for the hydrocarbon resources of the Caspian region and Central Asia," said Alexander Sobyanin, head of strategic planning at the Border Cooperation Association. So far, the fight for the former Soviet republics was fought "by civilized methods and on the diplomatic front". In this way, Russia is being squeezed out of Moldova, Ukraine and Belarus. Brussels actively supports the national opposition to the regimes of Leonid Kuchma and Alexander Lukashenko, creating a pro-European elite.
However, the situation could change dramatically in several years. "If the Europeans fail to get Kiev and Minsk into the orbit of their influence, they will take tougher measures, such as anti-government coups. After that, 'at the request of the people' and 'to ensure security', they will send their troops" to the republics, a former security official told RBC. If this happens, Moscow will be unable to stand aside. "The presence of European troops in the immediate vicinity of Russia poses a serious threat to national security," he said.
Bloody Europeans. Always doing their damnedest to repeat history. Given the declining state of the EU economy, particularly France and Germany, it may be just the distraction they are looking for. Of course, they would have to seriously beef up their military if they want to have a prayer when the balloon goes up. I seriously can't see the US volunteering ourselves into that mess, particularly considering how much we just love the idiots in the EU. I imagine that we would almost be rooting for Brussels to get jacked.
Let's not get distracted; the enemy of the moment is Islam -- errrr, I mean radical Islam -- and its state sponsors. The positioning revolves primarily around that conflict, not the Russia/EU one.
The notion that the EU is a "military" threat to Russia is rather ludicrous.
I think the Russian Army (even in its preset condition) could dispatch the handful of marching band companies the EU could dispatch to Moldova.
On the other hand, Putin seems bent on restablishing Russia's imperial control over the "near abroad" as you guys call it. This is something that might be relatively unopposed in Bielorussia or some of the Central Asian republics, but I think the Ukraine will be a much harder nut to crack, since the Western Ukrainians will violently resist any re-incorportation into a new Russian Empire and they will be assisted by the Poles, who have never really reconciled to the loss of Lvov, etc., and certainly have no desire to have another border with Russia.
Now that would be interesting war! The level of military ineptitude on par with the Iraq-Iran war. Would likely be a protracted blood-bath.
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