I will be more respectful than you were. You write: " the only people with AIDS are those who engage in non-monogamous heterosexual activity, IV drug users, and those who have sex or receive blood products with those in the previous two groups."
Diseases evolve, rather efficiently, and the HIV is no exception. In fact given its constant rate of change, you can almost predict that surviving variations will be seen. Please note; I am not talking about next year. We are talking many decades (ten year periods). Consider this AIDS has been with us for about 20 years. The infection rate has gone from a handful to an intercontinental epidemic spreading silently and growing by millions every year. Diseases do not spread in percentage increments. They spread by geometric progressions. If you see 20 million infected today, you can expect to see 40 million in 5 years, and 80 million in 10 years, and so on. I grant you that good behavior helps but diseases transmitted by body fluids will not be deterred by such moral behavior because people worldwide have poor hygiene. All living things, from viruses to humans propagate - life finds a way. The HIV will too. It is only a question of whether it will propagate faster than our ability to interdict it with a cure or an immunization.
posted on 12/02/2003 10:26:44 AM PST
(They are not Americans, they're democrats and fools to boot.)
Explain to me how AIDS will infect someone who only has monogamous heterosexual sex after marriage, does not use IV drugs, and does not receive blood products from someone who practices high-risk behaviors.
Sorry that you find my habit of referring to nonsense as "nonsense" but unless you believe that mosquitoes are going to start carrying AIDS, please explain how people who avoid that behaviors that spread AIDS are going to get it.
well, yes. decent epidemiological explanation, but...
1. AIDS spreads fastest and hardest among certain demographics, and seems rather handicapped among others. The "easy-prey" demographics can be expected to be wiped out, or reduced in number from their present glut population. Once that happens, the population and range of the deadly pathogen will also decline.
2. long term, infectious diseases tend to mutate into less-efficient pathogens. Too efficient, and they kill their hosts off faster than their hosts can replace. AIDS/HIV is none-too-efficient, but it is still lethal in 10+/-5 years... ie: less than the average generation.
3. If (unlikely) it ever got bad enough - and you know this - draconian measures such as mandatory testing, publication of positive lists, and hard medical isolation would be imposed. We can do things today that were not dreampt of back in the plague years.
posted on 12/02/2003 11:42:43 AM PST
by King Prout
(...he took a face from the ancient gallery, then he... walked on down the hall....)
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