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My Iraq Crystal Ball
Anxiety Center ^ | November 26, 2003 | Alan Caruba

Posted on 12/03/2003 11:56:07 AM PST by Maria S

Predicting the future is the job of soothsayers and those who like unfinished jigsaw puzzles. Still, something must be said about the future of Iraq if we are to remain confident and resolute enough to see our venture there through to the finish.

Let us begin with the Democrat’s claims that the President "lied" us into the invasion that has seen the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and the end to what was arguably the most horrid regime since those of Nazi Germany and the ghulags of the Soviet Union. Who said, "If Saddam rejects peace and we have to use force, our purpose is clear. We want to seriously diminish the threat posed by Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction program"? Answer: former President Clinton on Feb. 17, 1998.

Who said, "Iraq is a long way from [here], but what happens there matters a great deal here. For the risks that the leaders of a rogue state will use nuclear, chemical or biological weapons against us or our allies is the greatest security threat we face"? Answer: Former Secretary of State Madeline Albright on Feb. 18, 1998.

Time and again, when in power, Democrats told Americans that Iraq posed a major threat to the United States and the world. On November 10, Sen. Carl Levin, a member of the Intelligence Committee, was on television claiming the President had over-stated the intelligence he had received regarding Saddam’s WMD program, but on Sept. 19, 2002 Sen. Levin said, "We begin with the common belief that Saddam Hussein is a tyrant and a threat to the peace and stability of the region. He has ignored the mandate of the United Nations and is building weapons of mass destruction and the means of delivering them." Barely two weeks later, Sen. Ted Kennedy said, "We have known for many years that Saddam Hussein is seeking and developing weapons of mass destruction." If the intelligence that the Senate committee was receiving was wrong, then the intelligence upon which the President based his decision was wrong. We have learned, however, that there was a direct Saddam-Osama bin Ladin connection. Indeed, the only other explanation was that Saddam engaged in an elaborate WMD bluff. Meanwhile, defectors from Saddam’s regime repeatedly said he was seeking to build a WMD program. Who do you believe? Democrats who are denying what they said or Iraqi defectors and other facts that include his use of poison gas against the Kurdish population in Iraq and during his war with Iran?

Even Arab pundits who initially opposed the invasion of Iraq have revised their views. Fawaz Turki, a columnist for the Jidda-based Arab News, recently wrote, "No, I don’t believe that by going to war America had dark designs on Iraq’s oil or pursued an equally dark conspiracy to ‘help Israel.’ I believe that the United States, perhaps willy-nilly, will end up helping Iraqis regain their human sanity, their social composure and the national will to rebuild their devastated nation." The mass graves of Iraqis confirm the inhumanity of the Saddam regime, just as the concentration camps of Nazi Germany confirmed why WWII was necessary.

In early November, a Gallup poll taken in Baghdad reported "virtually without exception (98% agree, 1% disagree), Baghdadis agree that the new constitution should guarantee all Iraqis the right ‘to express their opinion on the political, social, and economic issues of the day.’ No demographic group appears to view freedom of speech as anything other than the most basic of civil rights." In this Muslim nation, "the vast majority of Baghdad’s residents agree that the country’s next constitution should include a provision ‘allowing all Iraqi citizens to observe any religion of their choice and to practice its teachings and beliefs.’" The notion that democracy cannot take root in Iraq or any other Middle Eastern nation is wrong.

In late October, the libertarian think tank, the Cato Institute, issued a policy analysis by Charles V. Pena, its director of defense policy studies. He expressed the view that "Much of the anti-American resentment around the world, particularly in the Islamic world, is the result of interventionalist US foreign policy." Such experts have been wrong in the past. It strikes me that the US has had a long history of trying to stay out of wars in other parts of the globe. We resisted going to war in both WWI and WWII. We responded to the North Korean attack on the South under the aegis of the United Nations. We did, however, blunder (and were lied into) the Vietnam War. Time and time again, the US has consistently tried its best to resist military action in favor of diplomacy.

I don’t think the US is resented for our foreign policy. I believe the US is resented for previously championing democracy as the answer to conflicts, but was often seen as doing little to encourage it.

That "status quo" policy is dead. Moreover, the new policy is buttressed by the fact that no democratic nation has ever gone to war with another democratic nation.

"It is too late to stop al Qaeda from targeting America and Americans," wrote Pena. "The United States must do everything in its power to dismantle the al Qaeda terrorist network worldwide, but the United States must also avoid needlessly making new terrorist enemies or fueling the flames of virulent anti-American hated. In the 21st century, the less the United States meddles in the affairs of other countries, the less likely the prospect that American and Americans will be targets for terrorism." Wrong! Wrong! Wrong!

First of all, al Qaeda is not a national movement that has a geographic location. Destroying it will require a change of mind among those nations that have funded and supported it. Lacking that, the US will likely have to compel, i.e., invade those nations that permit it to function. When we finish our work in Afghanistan and Iraq, we will have to turn our attention to Iran where credible reports suggest al Qaeda is setting up its new headquarters with the blessing of the ayatollahs The objective of al Qaeda is to impose Islam on the world and even Muslim nations seen to be supportive of US foreign policy are being targeted. The House of Saud is now battling al Qaeda in the streets of Mecca and Riyadh. Al Qaeda has struck in the Philippines and in Indonesia. It has attacked Morocco. Muslims leaders throughout the world are being forced choose between fanatical Islamists or the foreign policy of the United States.

As Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld recently stated, "Our exit strategy in Iraq is success; it’s that simple. "The objective is not to leave", but rather "to succeed in our mission."

As proof of this, thirty-two nations are now providing on-the-ground support for Iraqi reconstruction efforts. Noticeably missing is the United Nations! The UN is a useless doppelganger of WWII; the failed dream of an institution to achieve world peace.

The Cato analysis, to its credit, calls for greater emphasis on preventing terrorists from entering the US, as well as weapons or the components of WMDs. It calls for greater protection of critical facilities. I will, however, disagree with the Cato Institute’s essentially isolationist analysis.

I will oppose the cowardly response of the Democrat Party to the Bush administration’s efforts to fight terrorism. The Democrats offer no "exit" strategy other than to abandon Iraqis to chaos.

Lastly, it is worth noting that, since 9-11, there has not been a single terrorist attack in America. This does not mean one is not being planned, but it does mean that projecting our power in Afghanistan and Iraq has protected American lives thus far. Most people would call that a success.


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: iraq; predictions

1 posted on 12/03/2003 11:56:07 AM PST by Maria S
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To: Maria S
"Saddam Hussein and the end to what was arguably the most horrid regime since those of Nazi Germany and the ghulags of the Soviet Union"

Worse than Mao?
Worse than Pol Pot?
Worse than Kim?

Please, Saddam was a fourth rate tyrant with a tenth rate army; this guy needs to get out a little more. Clearly, it was slightly hysterical to suppose a $200 billion debt financed war fought by teenage girls from West Virginia to depose, that does not make the expedition a bad thing, but the guy is not being intellectually honest.
2 posted on 12/03/2003 12:25:31 PM PST by JohnGalt (And I'm saying that men can live together without butchering one another. -Josey Wales)
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To: JohnGalt
Hence the word arguably. Fourth rate tyrant? No way, But not on the level of the people you mentioned.
3 posted on 12/03/2003 12:28:19 PM PST by Conservomax (shill: One who poses as a satisfied customer or an enthusiastic gambler to dupe bystanders into part)
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To: Conservomax
How about Papa Doc Duvallier and Idi Amin?

4 posted on 12/03/2003 12:32:28 PM PST by JohnGalt (And I'm saying that men can live together without butchering one another. -Josey Wales)
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To: JohnGalt
The list is as long as my... well it's pretty long.
5 posted on 12/03/2003 12:35:54 PM PST by Conservomax (shill: One who poses as a satisfied customer or an enthusiastic gambler to dupe bystanders into part)
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To: Maria S
As proof of this, thirty-two nations are now providing on-the-ground support for Iraqi reconstruction efforts.

Wait a minute that can't be right. Every Democrat candidate for President has said we shouldn't be doing this alone. Eliminate the African, Asian and some European nations who can't feed or look after themselves, the Communist nations who are too selfish to participate, and you would have a goodly percentage of the population of the earth involved in this effort, so this is obviously wrong.

6 posted on 12/03/2003 12:39:55 PM PST by Timocrat
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To: Maria S
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/860462/posts

The words that give Bush the Authority.
7 posted on 12/03/2003 12:42:05 PM PST by OXENinFLA (Islam is like a new Communist infestation akin to what McCarthy exposed.)
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