DOW 10,000!

December 8, 2003

[wjcsux]

I heard that Ronald Reagan was turned away from active duty in the Army and that he was a Captain in the USAR producing training films. Is this true?

[Protagoras]

So what?

[onyx]

Perfect post. The Dashole photo mirrored my very thought. HA!

[palmer]

DJIA is not the economy, but it's a darn good leading indicator of economic confidence in large publicly traded companies, who make up a big chunk of the economy.

Do you think the DOW (or any other index for that matter) had anything to do with economic confidence at its peak in 2000? Why are things any different now?

[jaugust]

Great!! But will it stay there? There's absolutely no reason it shouldn't go even higher...Let's all stay OPTEMISTIC!!!

[Protagoras]

The mighty question is whether or not it'll close at 10K or above.

An answer in search of a question.

[AntiGuv]

And at what point do you abandon your basic forecast?

Whenever sentiment, volatility, p/e ratios, mutual fund cash levels, margin debt, insider selling, and consumer debt levels return to historic ranges.

Alternately, whenever interest rates rise above 45 year lows and the market doesn't go into a tailspin.

[Grampa Dave]

In WWII we saw the old Hollywood spring into action to support our war effort.

Now, Follywood is controlled by left wing perverts who hated America in the 1960's and 1970's. They went from protesting in the streets to making anti America and anti conservative films and tv shows in Follywood.

They helped to change victory in Nam to withdrawal and the loss of millions of innocent anti communists in Nam, Cambodia and other areas around Nam. Now they continue to glamorize and support Fidel and never say anything bad about the mass murdering Islamofascists like their buddy $oddomite and the Mass Murdering Mullahs in charge of Iran. Their only enemies today are GW and those of us who support GW.

[txrangerette]

There is a mind-boggling amount
of $$$$$ still on the sidelines.

[Protagoras]

What percentage of investments these days are controlled by the small vs. the large investor, anyone know?

First you have to define who they are.

[William McKinley]

and consumer debt levels return to historic ranges.

The only constant is change. If one always assumes that the models of the past are static, and that the ratios of one figure to another will be constant, one is bound to miss things when there has been fundemental change.

[AntiGuv]

Oh, I would also abandon my basic forecast if the broader economy begins creating the average 200,000 jobs per month required to sustain a genuine recovery based on something other than easy credit.

[William McKinley]

Now that is more concrete.

That should be in place comfortably by the time the election rolls around.

[jaugust]

OOPS! I mean OPTIMISTIC!!!!!

[txrangerette]

Nobody has to ask him, but then
you knew that.

[TheBigB]

It's true. He had very bad eyesight and partial hearing loss in one ear from an accident on a film set. He helped make training films.

[AntiGuv]

In that case, by the time the election rolls around the abandonment of my basic forecast should be comfortably in place as well. Until then, I have no problem with this conjecture regarding fundamental change, although I would think that would seem more compelling if one could actually describe what this alleged fundamental change is.

Short of that, I would have to assume that odds favor the 'fundamental change' being nothing more than another routine bubble market rationalization.

[OldFriend]

Money is now coming out of the mutual funds due to the market timing scandals too.

[AntiGuv]

BTW, interest rates are pretty damn concrete. Whenever the Fed decides that the economy is strong enough to sustain even a marginal rise from rock-bottom interest rates, then I will alter my outlook. So long as the Fed continues to make clear by their actions that they consider the underlying economic landscape as tenuous as I do, then I will not.

I will however not again make the error of forecasting the market with such premature specificity...

[OldFriend]

The left didn't care at all that a few million people were murdered in Cambodia. They don't care about the hundreds of thousands murdered in Rwanda (notice their silence) and they didn't give a damn about the hundreds of thousands murdered by Saddam Hussein either.

Wonder when the average citizen will wake up, pay attention to the direction of the left, and make sure this Democrat Party is relegated to the ash-heap of history.