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The Intellectual Yet Idiot medium.com ^ | 9/16/2016 | Nassim Nicholas Taleb Posted on 9/19/2016, 12:45:55 PM by Darnright What we have been seeing worldwide, from India to the UK to the US, is the rebellion against the inner circle of no-skin-in-the-game policymaking clerks and journalists-insiders, that class of paternalistic semi-intellectual experts with some Ivy league, Oxford-Cambridge, or similar label-driven education who are telling the rest of us
1) what to do,
2) what to eat,
3) how to speak,
4) how to think and
5) who to vote for.
But the problem is the one-eyed following the blind: these self-described members of the intelligenzia cant find a coconut in Coconut Island, meaning they arent intelligent enough to define intelligence hence fall into circularities but their main skill is capacity to pass exams written by people like them.
With psychology papers replicating less than 40%, dietary advice reversing after 30 years of fatphobia, macroeconomic analysis working worse than astrology, the appointment of Bernanke who was less than clueless of the risks, and pharmaceutical trials replicating at best only 1/3 of the time.
People are perfectly entitled to rely on their own ancestral instinct and listen to their grandmothers (or Montaigne and such filtered classical knowledge) with a better track record than these policymaking goons. Indeed one can see that these academico-bureaucrats who feel entitled to run our lives arent even rigorous, whether in medical statistics or policymaking.
They cant tell science from scientism in fact in their eyes scientism looks more scientific than real science. (For instance it is trivial to show the following: much of what the Cass-Sunstein-Richard Thaler types those who want to nudge us into some behavior much of what they would classify as rational or irrational (or some such categories indicating deviation from a desired or prescribed protocol) comes from their misunderstanding of probability theory and cosmetic use of first-order models.) They are also prone to mistake the ensemble for the linear aggregation of its components as we saw in the chapter extending the minority rule.
The Intellectual Yet Idiot is a production of modernity hence has been accelerating since the mid twentieth century, to reach its local supremum today, along with the broad category of people without skin-in-the-game who have been invading many walks of life. Why? Simply, in most countries, the governments role is between five and ten times what it was a century ago (expressed in percentage of GDP).
The IYI seems ubiquitous in our lives but is still a small minority and is rarely seen outside specialized outlets, think tanks, the media, and universities most people have proper jobs and there are not many openings for the IYI. Beware the semi-erudite who thinks he is an erudite. He fails to naturally detect sophistry. The IYI pathologizes others for doing things he doesnt understand without ever realizing it is his understanding that may be limited. He thinks people should act according to their best interests and he knows their interests, particularly if they are red necks or English non-crisp-vowel class who voted for Brexit. When plebeians do something that makes sense to them, but not to him, the IYI uses the term uneducated.
What we generally call participation in the political process, he calls by two distinct designations: democracy when it fits the IYI, and populism when the plebeians dare voting in a way that contradicts his preferences.
While rich people believe in one tax dollar one vote, more humanistic ones in one man one vote, Monsanto in one lobbyist one vote, the IYI believes in one Ivy League degree one-vote, with some equivalence for foreign elite schools and PhDs as these are needed in the club. More socially, the IYI subscribes to The New Yorker. He never curses on twitter. He speaks of equality of races and economic equality but never went out drinking with a minority cab driver (again, no real skin in the game as the concept is foreign to the IYI).
Those in the U.K. have been taken for a ride by Tony Blair. The modern IYI has attended more than one TEDx talks in person or watched more than two TED talks on Youtube. Not only will he vote for Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison because she seems electable and some such circular reasoning, but holds that anyone who doesnt do so is mentally ill.
The IYI has a copy of the first hardback edition of The Black Swan on his shelves, but mistakes absence of evidence for evidence of absence. He believes that GMOs are science, that the technology is not different from conventional breeding as a result of his readiness to confuse science with scientism. Typically, the IYI get the first order logic right, but not second-order (or higher) effects making him totally incompetent in complex domains.
In the comfort of his suburban home with 2-car garage, he advocated the removal of Gadhafi because he was a dictator, not realizing that removals have consequences (recall that he has no skin in the game and doesnt pay for results).
The IYI has been wrong, historically, on Stalinism, Maoism, GMOs, Iraq, Libya, Syria, lobotomies, urban planning, low carbohydrate diets, gym machines, behaviorism, transfats, freudianism, portfolio theory, linear regression, Gaussianism, Salafism, dynamic stochastic equilibrium modeling, housing projects, selfish gene, Bernie Madoff (pre-blowup) and p-values. But he is convinced that his current position is right.
The IYI is member of a club to get traveling privileges; if social scientist he uses statistics without knowing how they are derived (like Steven Pinker and psycholophasters in general); when in the UK, he goes to literary festivals; he drinks red wine with steak (never white); he used to believe that fat was harmful and has now completely reversed; he takes statins because his doctor told him to do so; he fails to understand ergodicity and when explained to him, he forgets about it soon later; he doesnt use Yiddish words even when talking business; he studies grammar before speaking a language; he has a cousin who worked with someone who knows the Queen; he has never read Frederic Dard, Libanius Antiochus, Michael Oakeshot, John Gray, Amianus Marcellinus, Ibn Battuta, Saadiah Gaon, or Joseph De Maistre; he has never gotten drunk with Russians; he never drank to the point when one starts breaking glasses (or, preferably, chairs); he doesnt know the difference between Hecate and Hecuba; he doesnt know that there is no difference between pseudointellectual and intellectual in the absence of skin in the game; has mentioned quantum mechanics at least twice in the past five years in conversations that had nothing to do with physics.
He knows at any point in time what his words or actions are doing to his reputation. But a much easier marker: he doesnt deadlift. Postscript From the reactions to this piece, I discovered that the IYI has difficulty, when reading, in differentiating between the satirical and the literal. PostPostscript The IYI thinks this criticism of IYIs means everybody is an idiot, not realizing that their group represents, as we said, a tiny minority but they dont like their sense of entitlement to be challenged and although they treat the rest of humans as inferiors, they dont like it when the waterhose is turned to the opposite direction (what the French call arroseur arrosé).
(For instance, Richard Thaler, partner of the dangerous GMO advocate Übernudger Cass Sunstein, interpreted this piece as saying that there are not many non-idiots not called Taleb, not realizing that people like him are < 1% or even .1% of the population.)
2/11/16 How Donald Trump broke all the rules, and won anyway.
So Trump and his voters won and broke the rules of the conservative plantation masters by voting for Trump!
It is wonderful to see a long standing corrupt political system disintegrating right before our eyes. A system that hates Americans, rewards illegals and those who bring them into America to freeload.
We are seeing a paradigm shift with us selecting our Presidential Candidate instead of the GOPe and DEMe elites who hate us, selecting our candidates.
There is a Black Swan event occurring with the daily suicidal self wrought destruction of the GOPe, Open Border Thugs, DC faux pundits, Faux News, ABCNNBCBS and the left wing fish wraps. Something similar is happening with the DEMes.
Many of us are looking forward to seeing the broken bones, drying blood and entrails of the Lying GOP Open Borders Elite, their DC faux conservative pundits, their mediots, their phoney pollers and focus groups, their hired tv and radio hacks strewn across the primary states as much as our victories in those states.
We have escaped from their faux conservative plantations, and we are not going back for more lies, abuse and mistreatment from our former GOPe masters.
What I need to do and believe to be a real Christian is between me and My Maker: by Aleya2Fairlie, 1/25/2016
If conservatism is about anything other than freedom, individual, political, and economic, I am not interested. on 1/25/2016, 7:16:44 AM by Jim 0216
Great news! Just now at the Greta wire: Are you going to watch the debate? No 72% yes 26%. MGYN and Rupert and the Trump snipers at Faux have Macied Fox News. Everybody now knows that the new partner Google had a special surprise for the candidates, aimed particularly at Trump. Good move Trump and FoxNews has a mole, IMHO. Google had invited three YouTube personalities to ask questions at the Jan. 28 GOP debate - including a Muslim advocate who describes Donald Trump as a bigot and who visually portrayed him as being in agreement with national socialist Adolf Hitler.Ã¢â¬â¢ http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/01/26/2868743/ WOW. Fox was really going to bring out the long knives by way of youtuber surrogates. Republicans do not want to hear these questions. This is why these debates are a joke and why it is so important that Trump is not doing this debate. The liberal media (including Fox and all of the morning programs, not just the usual suspects like CNN) should not be running the Republican nomination process. In fact, if/when Trump gets the nomination, the RNC i.e. Trump needs to ensure that no liberal media gets to run the debate. We should have no more acting like the moderators are neutral. When they are not. Instead, they rehearse and share the questions ahead of time with their candidate of choice. Good for Trump. The charade of these debates finally has had the curtain pulled back. Why should the liberal hacks living in NYC, DC and VA get to manipulate how the candidates are viewed. So tired of the lies and manipulations of the liberal press against conservatives. Go Trump Go! The plant liberal you tubers are probably going to be so upset after having rehearsed their attack lines against Trump, or their pro Rino candidate lines for Bush, et al. 1,104 posted on 1/26/2016, 7:38:50 PM by E20erer --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All those fools just unknowingly backed Obamaâs refusal to use his existing Constitutional power to shut down muslim aliens entering the country until they can be properly vetted.
Per existing federal law at 8 USC 1182:
Whenever the President finds that the entry of any aliens or of any class of aliens into the United States would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, he may by proclamation, and for such period as he shall deem necessary, suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens as immigrants or nonimmigrants, or impose on the entry of aliens any restrictions he may deem to appropriate.
http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/USCODE-2011-title8/html/USCODE-2011-title8-chap12-subchapII-partII-sec1182.htm gpo~government printing office:
No admission for any alien for Security and related grounds
Any alien who a consular officer or the Attorney General knows, or has reasonable ground to believe, seeks to enter the United States to engage solely, principally, or incidentally inâ
(i) any activity (I) to violate any law of the United States relating to espionage or sabotage or (II) to violate or evade any law prohibiting the export from the United States of goods, technology, or sensitive information,
(ii) any other unlawful activity, or
(iii) any activity a purpose of which is the opposition to, or the control or overthrow of, the Government of the United States by force, violence, or other unlawful means, is inadmissible.
(B) Terrorist activities
(i) In general
Any alien whoâ
(I) has engaged in a terrorist activity;
(II) a consular officer, the Attorney General, or the Secretary of Homeland Security knows, or has reasonable ground to believe, is engaged in or is likely to engage after entry in any terrorist activity (as defined in clause
(III) has, under circumstances indicating an intention to cause death or serious bodily harm, incited terrorist activity;
(IV) is a representative (as defined in clause (v)) ofâ
(aa) a terrorist organization (as defined in clause (vi)); or
(bb) a political, social, or other group that endorses or espouses terrorist activity;
(V) is a member of a terrorist organization described in subclause (I) or (II) of clause (vi);
(VI) is a member of a terrorist organization described in clause (vi)(III), unless the alien can demonstrate by clear and convincing evidence that the alien did not know, and should not reasonably have known, that the organization was a terrorist organization;
(VII) endorses or espouses terrorist activity or persuades others to endorse or espouse terrorist activity or support a terrorist organization; (VIII) has received military-type training (as defined in section 2339D(c)(1) of title 18) from or on behalf of any organization that, at the time the training was received, was a terrorist organization (as defined in clause (vi)); or
(IX) is the spouse or child of an alien who is inadmissible under this subparagraph, if the activity causing the alien to be found inadmissible occurred within the last 5 years, is inadmissible. An alien who is an officer, official, representative, or spokesman of the Palestine Liberation Organization is considered, for purposes of this chapter, to be engaged in a terrorist activity.
http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/USCODE-2011-title8/html/USCODE-2011-title8-chap12-subchapII-partII-sec1182.htm Security and related grounds:
Why not sue Facebook and Twitter out of existence for allowing jihadists to recruit over the web...?
Make the leftists atop Silicon Valley *personally* liable...
Thanks to Chuckee for this reality:
If felons were NOT overwhelmingly Democrat then why would the Dem party always be lobbying to to restore the vote to felons. Same logic applies to Dem lobbying to open the southern border and grant amnesty. If there were such a thing as overwhelmingly Republican illegal immigrants, Dems would have barbed wire and guns at the southern border and express busses back to Mexico.
ALL Muslims in America, who are really against Islamic Terrorism should be glad to have their names added to a data base. After all, they would have nothing to hide and certainly would not be carrying out any terrorist actions! So why would they fuss about it???
Every current and new Muslim should be vetted and registered as Obama thugs have a detailed census/data base on each one of us. Why are they trusted more than we are?
We fill out the census data every ten years on us and our family.
Besides the census, listed below are just some of the data bases they have on us now.
If we served in the military, our service record with service # and SS#. Our DD 214 shows what firearms we were qualified with.
If we have bought a firearm in the last few decades. Every firearm is registered to us.
Our state driver license with photo, fingerprint and who knows what else on the license data strip.
Credit rating and everything we have bought with a credit card.
Mortgage app and how we have been paying.
Medical records since ObamaCare and if on Medicare, the full 9 yards. We have seen the lab work for our yearly Medicare physicals go from 3 pages to 9-10 pages. Also, any operations which have been done on us, and any hospital er visit, same day surgery or procedure. Also, lab records, x rays, MRIs, and who knows what else.
Plus whom/what we have called on our land lines , cell phones, texted, emailed and what internet sites visite. What we are dumb enough to post on any social media including this site. Which is why No Such Agency needs buildings bigger than some towns to store all our electronic communication records.
What else ?. IRS has a list of every charity we donated to, when, where and how much for each tax years.
IRS knows where we had income and from what and how much each year and much more.
We need to closely Vet every new comer into America. Why, see below, Vet the new comers like we have been vetted and are vetted each day we live in AmeriKa. Why should we be vetted 24/7/365 and they get a free pass?
The proper name for this new war, Islamic terrorism.
The only difference in a moderate Islamist and a radical Islamist is tactical advantage. Once they think they have it, it is jihad time for all.
Coexist reality today!
How we can protect our families, now.
I used to feel that Ted would be a great VP for Trump.
Ted might be more important for America as Attorney General for Trump for 8 years.
Ted could get rid of the cr*p in the AG office, FBI and Homeland Security.
Then, Ted could investigate the rats and rinos in and out of congress for the crimes they have committed. If guilty, arrest them and send them to jail after they are found guilty in trials.
Then, the AG people could retrieve the money the congressional criminals/terrorists have stolen or taken in bribes.
Liberalism Is What Smart Looks Like to Stupid People!"
Thanks to smoothsailing for this!
The Carson/SDA Veggie pyramid.
Maybe we need to focus on being an American as posted by Lurkinanloomin!:
That puts Trump head and shoulders above most of the pack who are multi-national politicians.
Read how Ike handled the illegal problem as president: http://www.csmonitor.com/2006/0706/p09s01-coop.html Dont worry about Cruz if Trump keeps doing the right thing:
Ted Cruz: Foolish for GOP to criticize Trump Politico ^ | 8/10/15 | Katie Glueck Posted on 8/11/2015, 3:51:46 AM by TigerLikesRooster
Ted Cruz: Foolish for GOP to criticize Trump He says that it is dangerous to dismiss a candidate with this type of drawing power. By Katie Glueck 8/10/15 10:48 PM EDT Updated 8/11/15 6:02 AM EDT FRANKLIN, Tenn. Texas Sen.
Ted Cruz on Monday warned that the Republican presidential candidates who are slamming Donald Trump do so at their political peril. Cruzs remarks, which came during an interview with POLITICO as he swings through the South on a bus tour, are among the most detailed comments to date regarding his reluctance to criticize the real estate mogul, who is currently leading the polls in the GOP primary. I would note that an awful lot of Republicans, including other Republican candidates, have gone out of their way to smack Donald Trump with a stick.
Now I think thats just foolish, he said. Asked why, Cruz paused and then replied, Donald Trump had a rally in Phoenix, Ariz. [to which] between 10 and 20 thousand people came out. When you attack and vilify the people at that rally as crazies, it does nothing to help Republicans win in 2016.
Id like every single person at that rally to show up and vote in 2016, knock on doors with energy and passion, and turn this country around. If Washington politicians show contempt and condescension to those [voters,] that is a path to losing at the ballot box. And when asked whether he wants those voters to eventually support him, he replied, It is my hope to earn the support of the supporters for every other candidate in 2016.
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A Simple and quick analysis of the 2014 election and the younger voters:
Besides not liking EbolaObama or their reality of Obama Economics, the younger generation has nothing in common with the Geriatric Hate America leaders of the rat party.
The Democrats, who run America are too old, too rich, and very/very white.
The Clintoons, the very old and worn out icons/heroes of the aging Rat party, like so many of the elite rat power insiders are ancient in age and in their political core of hating America to get votes.
There are the other geriatric leaders of the rat party: Reid, Pelosi, Boxer, Fineswine, Madam Secretary Kerry, Bidden, Jessie Jack$on/Al $harpton and others. They started their power trips in the 1960/70s with a core of Hate America, anti business and supposedly concerned about pseudo racism. They have blamed America for the problems created by them and their allies here and around the world for decades.
Decades, later, they havent changed and still push their out of date anti America core beliefs to buy and pay for their feral voters. Their biggest failure, the War on Poverty, is in their minds, their biggest success.
They have left only false hope and no chance for change for the younger voters of America. Mean while they have looted the treasury and made their families and friends super wealthy elitist chrony capitalists. This leaves nothing but massive debts for our younger Americans.
Their so called younger stars are pro abortion Barbies and gay Kens with even harsher anti America values merged with phony anti racist bs backed by Eric Holder. As a result, their younger wannabees struck out as bad during this past election as their passe older generation.
So the current ancient rats and strike out newbees have nothing to offer younger Americans besides more pain and terrible attempts to take away their hopes.
If a Republican does not like guns, he doesn't buy one. If a DemocRat does not like guns, he wants all guns outlawed.
If a Republican is a vegetarian, he doesnot eat meat. If a DemocRat is a vegetarian, he wants all meat products banned for everyone.
If a Republican is homosexual, he quietly leads his life. If a DemocRat is homosexual, he demands legislated respect.
If a Republican is down-and-out, he thinks about how to better his situation. If a DemocRat is down-and-out he wonders who is going to take care of him.
If a Republican does not like a talk show host, he switches channels. A DemocRat demands that those they do not like be shut down.
If a Republican is a non-believer, he does not go to church. A DemocRat non-believer wants any mention of God and religion silenced.
If a Republican decides he needs health care, he goes about shopping for it, or may choose a job that provides it. If a DemocRat decides he needs health care, he demands that the rest of us pay for his health care.
"Did you really think we want those laws observed? said Dr. Ferris. We want them to be broken. Youd better get it straight that its not a bunch of boy scouts youre up against... Were after power and we mean it... Theres no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there arent enough criminals one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws. Who wants a nation of law-abiding citizens? Whats there in that for anyone? But just pass the kind of laws that can neither be observed nor enforced or objectively interpreted and you create a nation of law-breakers and then you cash in on guilt. Now thats the system, Mr. Reardon, thats the game, and once you understand it, youll be much easier to deal with. - Ayn Rand, 1957 -
A few of us before this Hate America traitor became our faux president, tried to tell the world why he was carrying the book, "The Post America World". Now a few are starting to wake up.
The idiot with the coexist sticker may have found out how Islamofacists plan to coexist with the rest of us!
The evil progressives in America have been America's home raised enemies/traitors for over a century hiding under the lable of progressives.
The space below is for rent to help pay, the upcoming increased taxes for the rest of my life.