Posted on 12/11/2003 10:36:39 AM PST by Starwind
Chicago Fed factory index drops in October Thursday December 11, 11:59 am ET
NEW YORK, Dec 11 (Reuters) - The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank said on Thursday its Midwest manufacturing index fell back in October after a strong rise the month before, but nevertheless the region's factories are on the mend.
The Chicago Fed's manufacturing index dropped 1.8 percent to 111.0 in October, after an upwardly revised surge of 3.9 percent in September.
Compared with a year ago, the index was down 2.2 percent.
Chicago Fed senior economist William Strauss cautioned not to read too much into the October decline, which was partly a payback for a strong September and a reflection a slowdown in the auto sector which has since picked up.
"This is probably not a trend in terms of continued weakness, but just a setback of one month," Strauss told Reuters.
"The indicators we've seen for November and our contacts suggest things are actually improving, so it's just a matter of time before the index reflects that."
The report showed swings in auto production dominated the recent shifts in the headline manufacturing index. Automotive output in the Midwest fell 2.2 percent in October after jumping 8.7 percent in September.
"Midwest auto manufacturing has been on a rollercoaster ride over the past few months," Strauss said.
The Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index is a monthly estimate of manufacturing output in the region by major industries. The survey covers the five states that make up the seventh Federal Reserve district: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Following is a breakdown of the index components:
Percent change:
Oct Sept Oct 02/03 CFMMI -1.8 +3.9 -2.2 Auto -2.2 +8.7 +0.4 Steel -1.5 +1.8 -5.4 Machinery -1.0 +2.1 -1.2 Resources -2.1 +0.7 -4.6
Index (1997=100)
Oct Sept CFMMI 111.0 112.9 Auto 156.2 159.7 Steel 98.1 99.6 Machinery 94.3 95.3 Resources 94.9 96.9
Manufacturing Activity: Summary Table . Index, 1997=100 Percent change . Monthly Annual . Aug 03 Sep 03 Oct 03 Aug 03 Sep 03 Oct 03 Oct 02-Oct 03 CFMMI 108.7 112.9 111.0 -0.6 3.9 -1.8 -2.2 CFMMI - Auto 146.9 159.7 156.2 -2.1 8.7 -2.2 0.4 CFMMI - Steel 97.8 99.6 98.1 0.3 1.8 -1.5 -5.4 CFMMI - Machinery 93.4 95.3 94.3 1.5 2.1 -1.0 -1.2 CFMMI - Resource 96.2 96.9 94.9 -0.8 0.7 -2.1 -4.6 IPMFG 112.2 113.1 113.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.5
The full FRB Chicago report (.pdf) is at Chicago Fed Midwest Manufacturing Index - October 2003
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