I'd like to see more light than heat used in the Middle East myself, but only one thing in history gives me hope that Bush's plan is going to work. The nations of Western Europe were among the most warlike on the earth for many centuries, we certainly witnessed the two most terrible wars on the face of the planet occurring there. Now, we can't even get them off their ass to fight when its in their interests. Britain, France, Spain, Russia and Germany have fought each other for the mainland of Europe for so very many years, surely, a person brought from 200 years ago by a time machine would be astonished at the peace that exists.
If Bush pulls it off, without triggering nuclear war, and in fifty years from now we have a peaceful Middle East, where Islam is just a quaint ancient custom practiced fervently only by a fringe, it will be one of the United States' greatest accomplishments of the 21st Century. Surely, we did the same thing in the 20th Century with Europe.
I agree with your excellent assessment. The biggest current problem however is: Pakistani nukes and their eventual proliferation to muslim arab nations. The second biggest problem is: at what point does this proliferation in the Middle East, trigger the first strike option from the Israeli's. If only the peoples of Arabia knew we were just trying to saving them from Israeli nuclear annihilation ! Unlike the endlessly debating Americans, the drunk on vodka Russians and the slow to respond Indians, Gods chosen people probably wont hesitate to activate a guaranteed defensive first strike. As soon as Israel got nukes, pan-Arabia was dead. It is just taking them a long time to admit defeat.