[BroncosFan]

I agree. The best way for Taiwan to stay out of the PRC's grasp would be via a back channel nuclear threat to Beijing. I'm not sure if they have the will. And what if all their F-16s get caught on the ground? Do they have any other delivery platforms? And, while I think they probably do have nuclear capability, neither of us know for sure. Perhaps they made a political decision not to build in order to avoid becoming even more of an international pariah.

As for the effect of the PRC's missiles, it would be far from nil. They'd have excellent intelligence on what to target in Taiwan because of the open nature of the latter's society as well as the fact that the PRC has had 50 years to infiltrate agents into sensitive positions throughout the island. A bolt from the blue salvo of several 100 missiles would disrupt Taiwan's initial response. Part of its Air Force surely would get caught on the ground and its ability to mobilize would be hindered. Couple that with the PRC seizing an airhead or two and flying in reinforcements and the panic that would ensure would be far out of proportion to the actual combat ability of the ChiCom troops on the ground.

Speed would be of the essence if US intervention were to have any practical effect. That's why I don't think the PRC would go for the blockade option -- too slow, gives us too much time to respond. Yes, we'd sink their navy rather easily, but that requires a political decision in favor of intervention. Would one be made immediately? Under a Democratic administration in '09? While a simultaneous crisis is going on in Iran?

[skraeling]

The best way for Taiwan to stay out of the PRC's grasp would be via a back channel nuclear threat to Beijing.

While the big stick is important, I think there is far too much economic activity between them for it to come to this. The amount of economic activity in China BY TAIWANESE BUSINESSMEN is very large. That's where much of the capitalist know how for China is coming from.

These peoples don't just stand on their shores making nasty faces and obscene gestures at each other. They are way too busy MAKING MONEY, and they DO love money. Given (1) Make war, or (2) Make love, or (3) Make money, money will win there every time.

[Poohbah]

As for the effect of the PRC's missiles, it would be far from nil. They'd have excellent intelligence on what to target in Taiwan because of the open nature of the latter's society as well as the fact that the PRC has had 50 years to infiltrate agents into sensitive positions throughout the island.

The CEP on those missiles is about 600 meters. That means that 50% of the missiles will land within 600 meters of the target; the rest will land further out. That means that your average miss distance will be at least half a mile.

If you're not using nukes, those missiles are only usable as terror weapons.

A bolt from the blue salvo of several 100 missiles would disrupt Taiwan's initial response.

How so? They aren't hitting critical targets--they are hitting NEAR critical targets. They're called "missiles" for a reason.

Part of its Air Force surely would get caught on the ground and its ability to mobilize would be hindered.

Fine. The airplanes are on the ground while missiles land 600 meters or more away from them. Unless you're talking about nukes, those planes are going to be fine.

Couple that with the PRC seizing an airhead or two and flying in reinforcements and the panic that would ensure would be far out of proportion to the actual combat ability of the ChiCom troops on the ground.

Actually, what would be likely to happen is that a few paratroopers would be stuck on the ground, and the PRC's combat airlift capability would be destroyed.