Safire: Office Pool

The New York Times ^ | 12/31/03 | William Safire

[Pokey78]

WASHINGTON

In last year's office pool, for the second year running, I accurately predicted the best-picture Oscar winner. Forget all of the other predictions, which were varying degrees of mistaken; I shoulda been a film critic.

The multiple choices include one, all or none. My picks are down below. Do not save this page.

1. Next tyranny to feel the force of U.S. liberation: (a) North Korea; (b) Iran; (c) Syria; (d) Venezuela.

2. Iraq will (a) split up, like all Gaul, into three parts; (b) defeat the insurgents and emerge a rudimentary democracy; (c) succumb to a Sunni coup.

3. First to fall from power will be (a) Little China's Chen Shui-bian, whose two-China campaign oratory on Taiwan is asking for trouble with Big China; (b) Pakistan's Musharraf, double-crossed by his Islamist military; (c) the U.S.'s Bush, after abandoning fiscal restraint; (d) Russia's Putin as his electorate miraculously awakens; (e) Cuba's Castro.

4. Long-overdue exoneration will come to embattled media megastar (a) Martha Stewart; (b) Michael Jackson; (c) Kenneth Lay; (d) Pete Rose.

5. The economy will (a) see a booming 13,000 Dow and 3,000 Nasdaq; (b) grow more slowly as a weakening dollar drives up interest rates; (c) be rocked by the abuse of manipulative derivatives in hedge funds.

6. The fiction best seller will be (a) "Retribution" by Jilliane Hoffman; (b) "Confessions of a Bigamist" by Kate Lehrer; (c) "Flying Crows" by Jim Lehrer (presumably one of Kate's husbands).

7. The nonfiction sleeper will be (a) "Inside — A Public and Private Life" by Joseph Califano Jr.; (b) Carl Zimmer's brainy "Soul Made Flesh"; (c) Michael Korda's biography of U. S. Grant; (d) Gertrude Himmelfarb's "The Roads to Modernity."

8. The scientific advance of the year will be (a) age retardation enhanced by memory protection; (b) a single pill combining erectile dysfunction treatment with a fast-acting aphrodisiac; (c) neuroscientists' creation of a unified field theory of the brain; (d) the awakening of geneticists to the liberating study of bioethics.

9. Best-Picture Oscar: (a) Anthony Minghella's "Cold Mountain"; (b) Edward Zwick's "The Last Samurai"; (c) Clint Eastwood's "Mystic River"; (d) Sofia Coppola's "Lost in Translation"; (e) Gary Ross's "Seabiscuit." (This is the category I'm good at.)

10. Bush's domestic initiative will be (a) Social Security personal accounts; (b) community college scholarships; (c) a moon colony; (d) snowmobile restrictions in Florida parks.

11. The U.S. Supreme Court (a) will decide that the rights of alien detainees in Guantánamo have not been violated; (b) will deadlock, 4-4 (Scalia recused), in the Pledge of Allegiance case, thereby temporarily affirming the Ninth Circuit decision declaring "under God" in the pledge unconstitutional; (c) in Tennessee v. Lane will uphold a state's immunity to lawsuits, limiting federal power in the Americans with Disabilities Act.

12. Howard Dean will (a) sweep Iowa and New Hampshire and breeze to a boring nomination; (b) lose to Gephardt in Iowa and do worse than expected in N.H., leading to a long race; (c) transform himself into the centrist, affable "new Dean"; (d) angrily bolt and form a third party if the nomination is denied him.

13. The "October surprise" affecting our election will be (a) the capture of bin Laden in Yemen; (b) the daring escape of Saddam; (c) a major terror attack in the U.S.; (d) finding a buried bag of anthrax in Tikrit.

14. Debating Cheney on TV will be the Democratic running mate (a) Wes Clark; (b) Bob Graham; (c) Bill Richardson; (d) Dianne Feinstein; (e) John Edwards; (f) Carl Levin.

15. The next secretary of state will be (a) Richard Holbrooke; (b) Paul Bremer; (c) Donald Rumsfeld; (d) John Kerry.

16. Israel, staunchly supported during the U.S. election year, will (a) build its security barrier including the Ariel salient and the Jordan Valley; (b) undermine Arafat by negotiating territory with Syria after Assad quiets Hezbollah in occupied Lebanon; (c) close down illegal outposts before "redeploying" settlers out of Gaza.

My picks: 1. (none), 2. (b), 3. (e) (I've made this yearly prediction for three decades and now is not the time to stop), 4. (a), 5. (all), 6. (b), 7. (a), 8. (d), 9. (c) (Make my day, Clint!), 10. (b), 11. (all), 12. (b), 13. (c), 14. (b), 15. (b) 16. (all). This last one is pure, unsourced thumb-sucking; Sharon didn't return my call.  

E-mail: safire@nytimes.com

[AM2000]

He's actually predicting a terror attack in October 2004?

[thoughtomator]

My picks:

1 - b; 2 - b; 3 - b (and it's going to be BIG trouble); 4 - a; 5 - c; 6 - none of the above; 7 - none of the above; 8 - b; 9 - c; 10 - c; 11 - b; 12 - d; 13 - c; 14 - a; 15 - none of the above; 16 - c

Ping me in 12 months

[SBprone]

Let's hope his predictions are at least as wrong as usual.

[Celtjew Libertarian]

1-C Especially if Saddam's WMDs are being kept there.

2-A

3-A

4-D

5-Can I say 2/3 of A? 12,000 Dow...

6-No idea.

7-D is the one I'd be most like to be interested in.

8-D, if any. None of the above, more likely.

9-No Idea

10-A or C.

11-A... maybe the others, as well.

12-A... and if not, then D.

13-A

14-I'm still going with my prediction of Dean/Cleland. But, if those listed there, B is most likely.

15-None of the Above. Condi Rice.

16-A & C

[Dont Mention the War]

There's no reason B, C, and D can't all happen in number 12.

[JohnBovenmyer]

9 - He didn't even offer ROTK as an option!

[GulliverSwift]

In last year's office pool, for the second year running, I accurately predicted the best-picture Oscar winner. Forget all of the other predictions, which were varying degrees of mistaken; I shoulda been a film critic.

Umm, Bill, predicting movie awards has nothing to do with being a film critic.

[GulliverSwift]

ROTK isn't a great film. It's too anticlimatic.

[GulliverSwift]

My guesses:
1 none
2 b
3 none
4 none
5 Dow 12,000 then heads downward somewhat
6 Another John Grisham (if there is one)
7 none
8 Cloning of human tissue
9 Last Samurai
10 a
11 all
12 b
13 none (Osama is in territory we can't get to w/o another war.)
14 e
15 Condi Rice
16 Don't know but B will never happen since that would be suicidal for Assad.

[Dell Dude]

My prediction is not that there will be a terrorist attack, but if there is one, William Saffire will finally get his wish and become part of the story instead of just writing about it.

This guy is a worthless POS. I'm still waiting for his dozen or so bombshells from Whitewater to detonate. It would be street justice if this guy paid for his years of slimy, self serving tabloid journalism.

[mc5cents]

This guy is a worthless POS. I'm still waiting for his dozen or so bombshells from Whitewater to detonate. It would be street justice if this guy paid for his years of slimy, self serving tabloid journalism.

?! What you talkin' about Willis?

[bvw]

Safire has "moved along", as they say. A robotic ouija board does better.

[OESY]

Some reactions: All tyrants are feeling The Force Be With US. Predictions of Castro's demise is perennially premature, but his End is growing Near. Economy, markets, authors and GM foods do well. Mystic R. was hard to watch with Tim Robbins and Sean Penn in lead roles. (Sorry Clint, though they may tip the Academy toward your Oscar -- especially since I found Cold Mountain, Last Samurai and Lost in Translation -- you have to really love Murray -- also to be losers.) Dean will dive (temporarily) -- good one! But Graham cracker for VP? Surely, Dems aren't that Dim, or are they? Bremer would be a good choice if Powell left -- better than Lugar (no mention?), but he be Our Man in Baghdad and Powell should be persuaded to stay -- too much respect, contacts, experience, military orientation, third-world empathy, domestic politics, healthy policy dialogue -- to let go, despite some objections. If a State Dept. reform is the goal, Powell's the best one to achieve it. On SCOTUS and Israel, anything could happen -- placing all related predictions in a sure-lose category. Did I miss the question about a Bush re-election? Whatever. Fasten your seatbelts! It's going to be a helluva ride!

[William McKinley]

My picks:

"1. Next tyranny to feel the force of U.S. liberation: (a) North Korea; (b) Iran; (c) Syria; (d) Venezuela."

I go with (e) none of the above in 2004. But if it is one, it will be Venezuela.

"2. Iraq will (a) split up, like all Gaul, into three parts; (b) defeat the insurgents and emerge a rudimentary democracy; (c) succumb to a Sunni coup."

Again I go with none of the above for 2004. But if any of these will happen by then, it will be (b).

"3. First to fall from power will be (a) Little China's Chen Shui-bian, whose two-China campaign oratory on Taiwan is asking for trouble with Big China; (b) Pakistan's Musharraf, double-crossed by his Islamist military; (c) the U.S.'s Bush, after abandoning fiscal restraint; (d) Russia's Putin as his electorate miraculously awakens; (e) Cuba's Castro."

Sadly, I think (b).

"4. Long-overdue exoneration will come to embattled media megastar (a) Martha Stewart; (b) Michael Jackson; (c) Kenneth Lay; (d) Pete Rose."

Exoneration? None of the above. But Rose will be forgiven and allowed back into baseball in 2004.

"5. The economy will (a) see a booming 13,000 Dow and 3,000 Nasdaq; (b) grow more slowly as a weakening dollar drives up interest rates; (c) be rocked by the abuse of manipulative derivatives in hedge funds."

(A) is the closest, although I think that the number is too low for the Dow and too high for the Nasdaq. More like Dow 14,500 and Nasdaq 2,500.

"6. The fiction best seller will be (a) "Retribution" by Jilliane Hoffman; (b) "Confessions of a Bigamist" by Kate Lehrer; (c) "Flying Crows" by Jim Lehrer (presumably one of Kate's husbands)."

A.

"7. The nonfiction sleeper will be (a) "Inside — A Public and Private Life" by Joseph Califano Jr.; (b) Carl Zimmer's brainy "Soul Made Flesh"; (c) Michael Korda's biography of U. S. Grant; (d) Gertrude Himmelfarb's "The Roads to Modernity.""

Should be (d) but will be (c).

"8. The scientific advance of the year will be (a) age retardation enhanced by memory protection; (b) a single pill combining erectile dysfunction treatment with a fast-acting aphrodisiac; (c) neuroscientists' creation of a unified field theory of the brain; (d) the awakening of geneticists to the liberating study of bioethics. "

None of the above.

"9. Best-Picture Oscar: (a) Anthony Minghella's "Cold Mountain"; (b) Edward Zwick's "The Last Samurai"; (c) Clint Eastwood's "Mystic River"; (d) Sofia Coppola's "Lost in Translation"; (e) Gary Ross's "Seabiscuit." (This is the category I'm good at.)"

None of the above. ROTK.

"10. Bush's domestic initiative will be (a) Social Security personal accounts; (b) community college scholarships; (c) a moon colony; (d) snowmobile restrictions in Florida parks. "

That's easy. (A).

"11. The U.S. Supreme Court (a) will decide that the rights of alien detainees in Guantánamo have not been violated; (b) will deadlock, 4-4 (Scalia recused), in the Pledge of Allegiance case, thereby temporarily affirming the Ninth Circuit decision declaring "under God" in the pledge unconstitutional; (c) in Tennessee v. Lane will uphold a state's immunity to lawsuits, limiting federal power in the Americans with Disabilities Act. "

(D) all of the above.

"12. Howard Dean will (a) sweep Iowa and New Hampshire and breeze to a boring nomination; (b) lose to Gephardt in Iowa and do worse than expected in N.H., leading to a long race; (c) transform himself into the centrist, affable "new Dean"; (d) angrily bolt and form a third party if the nomination is denied him."

b and c.

"13. The "October surprise" affecting our election will be (a) the capture of bin Laden in Yemen; (b) the daring escape of Saddam; (c) a major terror attack in the U.S.; (d) finding a buried bag of anthrax in Tikrit."

(e) none of the above.

"14. Debating Cheney on TV will be the Democratic running mate (a) Wes Clark; (b) Bob Graham; (c) Bill Richardson; (d) Dianne Feinstein; (e) John Edwards; (f) Carl Levin."

c.

"15. The next secretary of state will be (a) Richard Holbrooke; (b) Paul Bremer; (c) Donald Rumsfeld; (d) John Kerry."

e. None of the above.

"16. Israel, staunchly supported during the U.S. election year, will (a) build its security barrier including the Ariel salient and the Jordan Valley; (b) undermine Arafat by negotiating territory with Syria after Assad quiets Hezbollah in occupied Lebanon; (c) close down illegal outposts before "redeploying" settlers out of Gaza. "

c.

[DManA]

Safire will be tossed into jail until he tells who told him Mrs. Jerkface was a spy: (a) January; (b) March; (c) when hell freezes over.

[Beck_isright]

My choices:

1. b - Iran
2. b
3. e - The poor people there are just damned due.
4. d
5. a & c - Economy will continue to grow at a 5% plus quarterly rate.
6. Don't care
7. Not sure - But I have a hunch Rush will have a new book after all charges are dismissed...
8. Not listed...but sustained fusion for up to 2 minutes is my dark horse guess.
9. b.
10. b and c
11. Sadly I agree
12. b
13. a-but he will be captured in Western Pakistan in a joint US-Pakistani effort
14. b
15. b
16. All plus will destroy two Al-Queda cells we didn't know about in the West Bank and in Lebanon causing a major stir.

Happy New Year gang!!!!